6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving

Written by: Tide Capital

At Bitcoin block height #837188, 20 days before the fourth halving, Bitcoin has reached the $70,000 mark here, and market sentiment has changed subtly. Faced with the changes in the upcoming halving, whether the halving market will repeat itself or trigger new changes, both bulls and shorts are competing fiercely.

Tide Capital recently released "6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving", which elaborates on the six most important clues and judgments that drive Bitcoin prices. This article excerpts part of the research report for public release.

Bitcoin: About to complete the 4th halving, reducing annual selling pressure by US$10 billion

On April 18, 2024, Bitcoin will complete the 4th halving, and the block reward It will be reduced from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins, further reducing the output and selling pressure of Bitcoin.

The annual output of Bitcoin is approximately 330,000. Based on a price of US$65,000, it will bring more than US$20 billion of selling pressure to the market. After the halving, the annual selling pressure on Bitcoin will also be reduced by half, which is equivalent to a reduction of US$10 billion, which will help alleviate the selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: There have been 3 halvings in history, and they all achieved significant gains in the following year

Bitcoin has experienced 3 halvings in history. They occurred in November 2012, July 2016 and May 2020 respectively. The common point is that there was a sharp rise one year after the halving. Currently, the fourth halving is less than 30 days away. The market is beginning to price in the impact of the halving, and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate upward.

Bitcoin: Spot ETF received accelerated inflow of funds, boosting Bitcoin’s continued upward trend

On January 10, 2022, Bitcoin spot ETF received The approval has since brought in over-the-counter capital inflows of tens of billions of dollars, boosting Bitcoin’s continued upward trend. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin usually had more than one correction. However, the number of corrections in this round of bull market is not many and the magnitude of the correction is not large. This is precisely due to the continuous inflow of OTC funds.

Refer to the gold ETF. After the launch of the first gold ETF, gold ushered in a long bull run of nearly 10 years, with an increase of more than 400%. Compared with gold, BTC storage is safer, transactions are more convenient, transfers are faster, and it has superior value storage characteristics. The current market value of gold is US$14.5 trillion, and the market value of Bitcoin is only US$1.3 trillion. Bitcoin still has 10 times the distance from gold. The launch of Bitcoin ETF is more popular than the gold ETF of that year, and the speed of capital inflow is far ahead. .

Inscription: Bitcoin’s native innovation, expected to start the third wave when halved

In January 2023, Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor released The Ordinals protocol allows users to embed data into the Bitcoin blockchain to create NFT and token assets on Bitcoin, opening up a new way to play in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since its launch, the total number of Ordinals engravings has exceeded 60 million.

Inscription has experienced two waves of craze. The first wave started in April 2023. The leading token ORDI rose from $0.005 to $28, an increase of more than 5,000 times in two months. The second wave began in October 2023. ORDI rose from $3 to $96. OKX and Binance launched the Mingwen trading market one after another, driving more Mingwen assets to rise.

Inscription is a native innovation of the Bitcoin ecosystem, bringing more users and developers to the Bitcoin community, and various new applications and gameplay are constantly emerging. When Bitcoin undergoes its next halving, the market’s focus will return to the Bitcoin ecosystem again, and Inscription will also start a third wave of craze.

Runes: The protocol is expected to be launched at the time of halving, and Runestone is expected to become a core asset

Runes Protocol (Runes Protocol) By Ordinals founder Casey Rodarmor It is proposed that as an improved and upgraded version of the BRC-20 protocol, it aims to provide a highly efficient, highly compatible, and highly scalable Bitcoin asset issuance and management framework. It is expected to be officially launched when the Bitcoin halving occurs, so it has become the mainstream of the halving hype. One of the concepts.

Rune Stone was launched by Leonidas, founder of Ordinals browser Ord.io. It completed its initial issuance by airdropping NFT to 112,383 Bitcoin addresses, and its current market value exceeds US$300 million. Runestones have become a representative asset of Rune Protocol, and more and more projects are beginning to airdrop to users who hold runestones. Runestones have huge room for imagination, and future applications and gameplay are worth looking forward to. In addition, after the Rune Protocol is launched, users holding rune stones can convert them into fungible tokens. In general, Rune Stone has the narrative of "rune protocol", "empty investment asset" and "coin issuance expectation", and is expected to become the core asset of Bitcoin's halving market.

Meme: Blue-chip NFT mfers issued tokens, with a market value from 0 to 200 million US dollars in 12 hours

On March 30, sartoshi, the founder of blue-chip NFT project mfers, issued tokens The currency mfercoin stated in the white paper that mfercoin is a meme coin with no intrinsic value, no profit expectations, and no specified use. 80% of the tokens have been injected into the liquidity pool, and the remaining 20% ​​of the tokens will be airdropped to mfers community.

NFT project mfers was launched in 2021. It once set off a PFP craze in the encryption community and is a well-known blue-chip NFT project. After mfercoin was launched, with the spontaneous support and spread of the community, the market value increased from 0 to 200 million US dollars within 12 hours. For the future of mfercoin, in the words of the mfers community, 1$mfer=1$mfer.

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