U.S. uses artificial intelligence technology to predict Ukraine’s arms and ammunition needs

It is reported that Frankfurt, Germany is the joint operations center of the International Donor Coordination Center (IDCC), where officials from the United States, Britain, Ukraine and a dozen other countries track donated weapons and materials. transfer, accurate to a single bullet.

This process begins with a request from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense for supplies such as armored vehicles or bullets. IDCC officials will check to see if a donating country or entity has the item. IDCC officials then devised a process to get the supplies to Ukrainians, who would then transport them across the border. During this process, IDCC officials documented what was requested, what was donated, and what was received.

These requests also allow the IDCC to calculate and track how quickly Ukrainians are using supplies, and insight into their usage rates is important for understanding how quickly they need to be replaced.

Beyond that, the IDCC also deals with security concerns, such as a shipment of weapons from Macedonia that made social media headlines, prompting officials to adjust shipment times to avoid attracting public attention. They said that although some of the goods were very conspicuous at first, they have since become difficult to detect. IDCC officials have devised methods of transporting aid without flight numbers or other tracking indicators, which would thwart Russian intelligence agencies' attempts to intercept or destroy aid in transit.

According to these officials, Ukraine is constantly making requests for increased material supplies, and the requests are very urgent. Jared Summers, chief technology officer of the U.S. Army's 18th Airborne Regiment, which is working with the German IDCC, said that this is the next step to use the large amount of data that the IDCC is collecting to develop artificial intelligence-driven technology to predict these events in advance. demand (rather than passively responding to demand).

This is the same step that large companies such as Amazon are taking to ensure that demand is met. But large retail institutions have some advantages that IDCC does not have. They can add sensors to the cargo to get a complete data picture. In this regard, Summers said that IDCC is planning to use existing data to develop predictive models to solve this shortcoming.

He said, "Once we get enough data, we can see the consumption and failure rate of the weapon system. We can actually create this model without using sensors."

The key to predicting the replenishment time is to know the weapon's wear time. Summers said models forecasting demand in Ukraine were being developed and was cautiously optimistic they would be ready by the end of the year.

This predictability could have crucial consequences for Ukraine and its allies as they work to ensure that Ukraine can continue to receive aid and continue fighting next year and beyond. It may also help address concerns by some MPs and others about accountability for aid provided and requested.

But there is a big difference between how IDCC tracks and preserves data and how the DoD inspector general wants it to practice.

In July, the Defense Department’s Office of the Inspector General said that instead of using Advana, an analytics center designed to streamline data collection and sharing, the Pentagon was using journal entry vouchers. This raises a concern as journal entry vouchers have the potential to limit the transparency of funds, particularly if journal summary vouchers cannot be traced back to the details supporting transactions.

Recently, the IG office released a new report reminding the Department of Defense to adhere to its own accounting procedures and citing a March Department of Defense memo that stated that “The Advana Analytics Platform will be the primary tool for reporting on Ukraine The authoritative and sole source of replenishment funding, DoD components require weekly updates on Advana's direct funding performance."

New report states that the DoD office has made improvements to Advana's functionality to increase replenishment funding to Ukraine Traceability, transparency and reporting of performance. But the analysis center is still not used widely enough and consistently enough. As a result, parts of the Department of Defense are working based on different numbers to determine the types of aid that have been allocated, used, and so on.

Summers said, "Advana is an important part of the overall ecosystem required to support data center operations. Additionally, when you deal with tactical data links, it is also near real-time and drives additional technology requirements, Delivered at the speed necessary to achieve decision advantage."

IDCC needs to use all the data it has as quickly as possible, rather than running it through some analytics platform before they can see and execute the request. "We prefer to be able to get information directly from the source to drive our decisions in our processing, rather than taking information out of the system and feeding it back to us," Summers said. Summers said he is currently working with Craig Martell, the Pentagon's chief digital and artificial intelligence officer, and has spoken on a variety of topics.

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