Is Apple's 'next decade” coming? Apple AR Glasses Forecast

Editor's Note: This article is based on Two Preserved Eggs' "Starting the Next Ten Years of Technological Change?" Transcript of the video “Apple AR Glasses Forecast”, you can watch the original video.

In the past six months, there have been more and more rumors about Apple's AR glasses. Executives such as Craig and Tim remained tight-lipped during interviews. It seems that the whole world knows that Apple is going to make AR glasses, and only Apple itself is being deceived. In the drum.

WWDC18

I don’t know what everyone thinks? Although it may not be affordable, we are still very much looking forward to the release of this product. But what exactly can Apple’s AR glasses be used for? Can it really replace a cell phone? On the eve of WWDC, we want to continue the tradition of prediction and talk about our thoughts and answers about this product. Hello everyone, welcome to Two Preserved Eggs’ Apple AR preview, I’m number one.

▍Product positioning

First of all, I have to say that this is not a summary of breaking information. The product of glasses is really too special. The last time Apple released such a disruptive product was the first-generation iPhone. Every time such a new form of product appears , it is not enough to just make a good product, you must also clearly tell users what the product is and how to use it.

Even if TNT is a negative, the press conference is not as good as Haizhou live broadcast

There is only one such opportunity, if the explanation is not clear the first time. The price paid later will be doubled. At the 2007 press conference, compared with competing products with buttons, how did Apple explain to users that it had made a large-screen mobile phone without a keyboard?

An iconic moment - a device that combines a phone, an iPod, and an internet communicator...

Apple’s move is a typical old wine in a new bottle. It uses products that were very familiar to users at the time to offset the strangeness of users. Now more than ten years later, Apple is facing such a problem again.

There is still a huge gap between the future experience in science fiction movies and current technology, and the bubbles in the VR metaverse have gradually begun to make consumers lose interest. Under such circumstances, repositioning and highlighting Apple's differences may be harder to achieve than before.

Then I can make a conclusion first. By analogy with the positioning logic of the first-generation iPhone, I think Apple’s first-generation glasses will be relatively stable. It is likely to be a combination of Dolby Cinema game console and high-performance computer, that is, Said that content and productivity were the focus of his presentation.

At the same time, the ability to open and define the interaction logic of glasses requires Apple to define a template for the entire ecosystem (industry). Apple should not make any surprise moves. These are all high-value directions that have been verified by the industry. They should clearly draw the boundaries and maximize the user experience within the controllable range.

But if this is the case, you can think about it. If you are also a product manager who makes glasses, Apple thinks exactly the same as you. You do entertainment and Apple also does entertainment, but Apple must do everything better than you. You should Are you happy or sad?

In short, everyone may have similar ideas, but Apple often wins in the details of the combination of software and hardware. Next, I will first talk about the basic experience of the system, and then analyze the possible key display scenarios.

▍Experience

The reason why we talk about the basic experience first is that revolutionary products are often accompanied by revolutionary interaction solutions. This was the case with mice and multi-touch screens back then, and it should be the same with glasses now.

What is basically certain at present is that Apple’s glasses will not be controlled by peripherals such as handles. Whether it is from previous revelations or published patents, this information can be confirmed, here The underlying logic is not that the controller is bad, the main reason is that the controller is more like an exclusive peripheral for games, but the ambition of Apple Glass goes far beyond games.

If the main vision of the product directly puts the glasses and the controller together, users will look at you as VR glasses for playing games, and the audience will be narrowed, which is not conducive to future development.

It’s still what Steve Jobs said when the iPhone was released, The best interactive medium is our innate fingers, using finger movements and gestures to build the basis of interaction is Apple’s consistent logic of doing things. On glasses, the motion capture of the index finger and thumb will be crucial.

I have a very bold guess, is that the interaction logic of glasses is very likely to be very similar to that of mobile phones. From Apple’s patent, you can see such a gesture, a half-clenched fist. In this state, I put my thumb on my index finger. I didn’t understand what this gesture meant at first, but I just felt that this posture might be more relaxed and natural?

But in my mind, shouldn’t the general augmented reality interaction be pointing at the mountains and rivers in the air? Until one day I suddenly realized that this posture is actually the posture we are most accustomed to, and we repeat it every day when using mobile phones.

The index finger replaces the screen as the interactive area, and the thumb slides and clicks on it, which is exactly the same as the operation of the mobile phone. Isn’t this right? Building a sense of familiarity from the most frequently used interactions, I feel that the interaction logic built around this gesture must have no threshold for most people to use it.

Of course, I guess some friends will ask, isn’t it tiring to just rub two fingers back and forth on the infinitely large screen of AR glasses? There is another input source that is very critical here, which is the direction of the eyes. There is no operation faster than your eyes. Eye tracking determines the approximate area, and fingers are used to complete fine-tuning and confirmation.

Experiencing PS VR2 some time ago has allowed me to see the potential of eye tracking. However, there is one point that I am very curious about. That is the most basic operation of typing. How does Apple design the interaction? I don’t know what everyone thinks. ah? You can imagine it in the barrage. I haven’t thought about it very well myself. I can only watch the press conference when the time comes.

After talking about interaction, let’s talk about another core experience of glasses, see through, which is the perspective function. I feel that this function has too low priority in previous products. The perspective of Quest 2 and PS VR2 can only It is used for emergencies. Everything can only be seen roughly, as if the high-definition textures of this world have not been loaded. But Apple will definitely do the opposite and treat it as a core experience and make great efforts to do it. Not only does ARKit, which Apple has been working on for many years, rely on capturing the real world, but more importantly, this thing is like a headset. Like the transparent mode, it provides a sense of security and convenience.

I can feel the outside world immediately when I need it. Apple attaches so much importance to the connection between people, It will not make a helmet that closes you in the virtual world. Perspective or even two-way perspective allows you to still interact with the world. This is a core experience that must be achieved in Apple's product definition.

There is actually no point in guessing how many cameras Apple will use to achieve this. Let’s take a look at the preview interface on the mobile phone camera. Apple has been doing multi-camera splicing for more than three years. It is most useful on mobile phones, or glasses. I don’t need to say more about how useful it is. I think when we see the efficacy, we can just verify a scenario. If I wear glasses, I can temporarily reply to WeChat on my mobile phone, it can be done In this way, the number of times the user needs to temporarily take off the glasses can be greatly reduced. If you repeatedly take off the glasses too many times, you will naturally be unwilling to wear them.

And if we think about the capability building part carefully, except that eye tracking may be a new thing for Apple, the interaction and perspective functions of glasses are actually the reintegration of existing product capabilities.

For example, for hand motion capture, the auxiliary touch on watchOS can actually use sensors to recognize two-finger pinch and fist gestures. Coupled with the watch's years of accumulation of body motion detection algorithms, I feel that the recognition rate and stability are There is absolutely no need to worry.

And if we think one step further from the see-through function, would it be reasonable for the solution for perceiving the world on glasses to be further integrated into Apple cars? This kind of integration and reuse between various scenarios at the software and hardware level is a test of R&D and product capabilities, and it is also Apple's long-standing advantage.

Our Comrade Cook really knows how to reuse. Maybe in his eyes, reuse is as elegant and attractive as compound interest.

Next, we will talk about the main scenarios and selling points. These parts not only ensure that users can use the glasses, but also provide the overall experience. But users will never buy such a product just because the interaction is good. Apple must come up with a killer scenario, not only to attract users, but also to point the direction for developers.

▍Sample

From a certain point of view, the product of glasses is actually not complicated. The biggest difference is that it has a screen full of human eyes, and when a product has a larger screen , his selling point is nothing more than the large number of displays and the large display——

The former brings calmness, while the latter enhances immersion. From mobile phones to tablets to TVs, marketing strategies are all without exception, so entertainment and productivity will naturally become key marketing scenarios.

First of all, games. The current M chip can fully achieve console-level image quality, and from the chip to the system to the development tools, it is the only company that can control all nodes in place. This is even Nintendo. Advantages that are not available. But the competition of consoles has never been based on performance. What chip the Switch uses has nothing to do with the sales of Tears of the Kingdom exceeding 10 million. The competition of consoles has always been about content. This part is a problem for Apple, but it is not a problem.

The problem is not that Apple has the largest mobile game ecosystem in the world. It will definitely provide tools to allow developers to make simple adaptations, and they may even be able to play in 2D mode without any adaptation. There are all the games on iOS. You can’t say that these games are not games, right? Of course, I know that everyone is looking forward to more than these. 3A-level games have always been a shortcoming in the Apple ecosystem.

At this time, think back to the game announced at WWDC last year. There is definitely something to say here. No Man's Sky has a VR version for a long time, and the VR version of Resident Evil 8 will be launched on PS VR2 this year. So it is reasonable to guess that these two games last year have already paved the way for the game ecosystem.

Apple may have known early on that it was going to make a VR version of Sheng8, and Capcom has the ability and willingness to invest resources to escort the launch of the glasses. I must also say here that I experienced the VR versions of Horizon and Resident Evil 8 some time ago. Although the display effect of Sony's VR2 is very average and drags a line, when I actually play the game, there is still a strong The sense of immersion is much scarier than playing on TV.

This kind of immersive experience cannot be provided to you no matter what size of TV or mobile phone it is.

Of course, the possibility of exclusive 3A games cannot be ruled out, especially 3A VR games. To be honest, although VR games have been developed for so many years, there are still only a handful of good games. If Apple can provide an important practice at this time, it will have huge guiding significance for developers.

And while we’re at it, I’ll say a few more words about the interaction. If you really follow what I said, Apple will put the core of interaction on finger movements. Then how do you control the interaction when playing games? Moving inside is something that must be considered. External handles are certainly a solution, but is it possible to recognize the movements of hands and feet at the same time without using a handle? This is what needs to be focused on during the game demo session.

So in this part of the game, there is definitely no shortage of games to play in the first launch escort. The key depends on how many attractive masterpieces can be played directly. The game field that Apple has been cultivating for many years is waiting for this tremor. Although there are some controversies or questions about gaming, Apple is basically unrivaled in the audio and video field.

Paired with spatial audio that supports Dolby Atmos, as well as 4K HDR content provided by various platforms including TV and iTunes, these glasses can be said to be a mobile and exclusive Dolby Cinema.

And have you ever thought about it, even Apple doesn’t need to make the speaker specifications of the glasses particularly high. As long as it can connect to AirPods Pro for lossless transmission, the spatial audio experience will be top-notch. This should be very attractive to hardcore audio and video enthusiasts. After all, if you want to build an audio and video room with similar specifications at home, the cost is much higher than a pair of glasses. In my opinion, perhaps the most important selling point of glasses products at the press conference is their gaming and audio-visual functions.

But it is definitely not enough to have it alone, it must also be an all-round productivity tool.

For example, the audio-visual experience we just talked about, can such an ideal monitoring environment that can be carried around and handed over to colorists and sound effects engineers greatly expand the flexibility of work in the film and television industry? This kind of To B business may be better.

And ARKit, which Apple has been working on for many years, can finally be used to its full potential this time. It should have great possibilities in the fields of creativity, game development, and education. Recently, I can still swipe it while holding an iPhone in the house. With one turn, the entire indoor space is scanned and modeled.

And when you put on glasses, enter a more immersive virtual world, and free your hands, this can be considered true AR.

Apple will definitely use cases to fully demonstrate the improvement of work efficiency caused by glasses when it is released. And do you think Apple will come up with a first-party tool this time? After all, Apple’s productivity tools in the past have never been involved in the field of modeling, but they have actually been laying out the layout behind the scenes for many years. In 2018, iOS supported 3D models in the USDZ format. This 3D file standard jointly developed by Apple and Pixar has quietly It has been behind it for many years. When we use AR to view new products on the official website, it is at work.

As a basic tool for building a new world, will Apple also have this right to speak in its own hands? What do you think?

In addition, I would like to mention social networking. Although this is also a cliché, don’t forget that Memoji based on structured light is still the best avatar experience at present. Apple will definitely move the entire logic to glasses.

Do you still remember that at the 2021 WWDC Apple supported spatial audio on FaceTime, as if your friend was really talking next to you. Once you have glasses and the virtual image and spatial audio are directly projected into the real world, the quantitative change in immersion will lead to a qualitative change.

And there is a huge opportunity here, which is that in the post-epidemic era, many companies have gradually regarded working from home as the norm, but remote communication is really tiring. Those who have experienced online meetings or online classes Friends should be able to understand, If virtual meetings can solve such problems, does the company really not need so many workstations? And the price of glasses, compared with the saved office rent, can even be said to be Not worth mentioning.

So it’s not just about entertainment and productivity. The glasses are likely to come up with a variety of scenes when they are released to demonstrate the system’s openness. The AR modeling tools, film and television monitoring, and virtual offices I mentioned earlier may be just the tip of the iceberg. , maybe a Mac with an infinite screen may be enough to hit many people. Apple has been preparing for so many years. I guess the surprise will be just a lot more.

▍Summary

At this time, let’s think back to the positioning of glasses I mentioned at the beginning. A comprehensive entertainment device, a productivity tool worn on the head, does this product have a better impression in everyone’s mind? A little clearer? It’s like the trinity explains the positioning of the original iPhone. The host Mac of this era may also be presented in a completely new form in the next decade. The capabilities and ecology accumulated over the years are superimposed on the interactions and experiences of the new era. Apple’s set of old wine in new bottles should be able to open the door to a new era for us.

However, it must be noted that even for Apple, the probability of failure is not small. The construction of content ecology cannot be achieved overnight. The display of core scenes is very important, and this will be the focus of everyone's attention. This industry has experienced too many ups and downs, and even Apple may only have one chance to get things right.

Talking about this, I thought of a story, which I feel is very suitable to be used as the end of the video and shared with everyone. The boss of the previous department visited the screen factory. When introducing the company's business, the person in charge used one sentence to explain the present and future of the screen factory. He said that in the final analysis, the screen is a projection of the real world, but the real world is There is no concept of resolution, and there is no concept of refresh rate in the real world. The real world is three-dimensional. The purpose of making screens is to overcome these problems one by one.

This may be the reason why we are so looking forward to this product. Even though AR glasses are still quite far away from ordinary people’s lives, the process of them replacing mobile phones will not happen overnight. But when the definition of mobile phones gradually comes into being When the optimal solution and product experience are getting closer and closer, the next problem that the industry needs to challenge will naturally become AR glasses. The process of continuous exploration and verification by each company is the great strides forward in our scientific and technological life. the process of.

The iPhone and mobile Internet have completely changed our lives in the past ten years, but what kind of story will happen in the next ten years? How will our lives change? This is what we, as industry observers, want to study and imagine.

Okay, that’s all the content of this video. Fortunately, we received an invitation from Apple this year to attend the WWDC on-site event at Apple Park. We will bring you front-end reports as soon as possible. I hope that this year we can really realize our dream predictions and witness Apple's next step together. A decade of changes, everyone is welcome to pay attention. Here are the first numbers of the two preserved eggs, see you next time.

Original link:

https://sspai.com/post/80084?utm_source=wechat&utm_medium=social

Author: Two Preserved Eggs

Editor: Zhang Yiyuan Nick

Title picture comes from macrumors.com

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