Bitwise Asset Management's Weekly Crypto Market Compass – opens with a stark assessment

Bitwise Asset Management’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass – opens with a stark assessment: “With political pressure mounting on Powell and the dollar falling

As the US Dollar Index slipped below 98.5 amid growing speculation of President Trump seeking to oust Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, demand for dollar-denominated stores of value waned, according to Bitwise Asset Management's Weekly Crypto Market Compass.

This was evident in Bitcoin's outperformance, a trend that persists despite a broader downturn in risk assets. The cryptocurrency's price has risen above key resistance at $80,000, a move that began last week with the news of potential U.S. tariffs on ASIC rigs.

The administration's language regarding Powell's removal, characterized by National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to reporters as "actively exploring" the matter, is a public assault on monetary independence, the firm said.

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin's statistical profile has become conspicuously defensive. Month-to-date, the currency is trading up more than 7%, whereas the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both down between 7% and 9%.

"This marks the early-stage decoupling we've been discussing," the analysts noted.

Their report calls out the gap and illustrates it with a chart in which the orange Bitcoin line bends decisively upward as the two equity indices turn lower.

On-chain data

On-chain data is reinforcing the impression that the bid is coming from strategic rather than speculative capital. Over 63.5% of Bitcoin supply has remained unmoved for at least a year, they noted, adding that long-term-holder supply climbed to a YTD high of 69%.

Exchange balances continue to grind lower, reaching 2.60 million BTC, now at a multi-year low, a trend that saw whales remove a further -260,455 BTC during the last weekly interval. These numbers “underscore strong conviction among long-term holders” even as short-term traders fade in importance.

Derivatives markets

Derivatives markets are also sounding that tone. BTC futures open interest expanded by "around 15.8 k BTC" and perpetual open interest by " 10.7 k BTC," while the three-month annualized basis widened to 5.7%, up from 5.2% the previous week.

Funding rates on perpetual swaps stayed positive, indicating that traders are paying a premium to maintain long exposure. Meanwhile, at-the-money implied volatility for one-month options sits near 49% per annum—a level the firm describes as "modest" in historical context and therefore not suggestive of froth.

Spot market flows

Global crypto ETPs experienced net outflows of roughly $30 million last week, a sharp deceleration from the prior week's exodus of $835 million. Crucially, US spot Bitcoin ETFs bucked the trend, attracting US $15.8 million in fresh capital.

Bitwise's own BITB absorbed $23.8 million, while Grayscale's GBTC registered no change and BlackRock's IBIT took in a healthy $186.5 million.

Notably, $381 million flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs yesterday. These are record inflows since February.

These allocations come on top of corporate treasury demand: Japanese public company Metaplanet added 330 BTC at an average cost of $85,605, lifting its holdings near the $420 million threshold, and Strategy Inc. disclosed the purchase of 6,556 BTC for roughly $556 million.

Not all industry news is benign. The Compass dedicates a full page to the mining sector, noting that "hashprice is at all-time lows" just as the U.S. government prepares tariffs of up to 46% on ASIC rigs imported from Southeast Asia.

With an estimated 40% of global hashrate located in the United States, those levies threaten to squeeze a segment already wrestling with thinning profit margins.

Some operators, such as Bitfufu and Bitdeer, are redeploying machines to Ethiopia, Norway and Bhutan; others, including Riot and CleanSpark, moved shipments forward to beat the deadline. The report warns that public companies holding Bitcoin on balance-sheet "crowd out" miners by offering investors price exposure without operational risk or large capital expenditures.

However, the firm's central conclusion is clear: the macro forces that have buoyed Bitcoin off its March lows remain in place.

"Bitcoin outperformed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq this month," the authors noted, "as US dollar dominance shows signs of erosion."

Their proprietary Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has shifted from -0.23 to 0.21, its first positive reading in two months, even as breadth remains narrow—only 20% of tracked altcoins beat Bitcoin last week. In Bitwise's view, concentrated leadership is not a weakness but

News data source: kdj.com

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