Litecoin (LTC) price drops sharply to $65

Litecoin (LTC) price plummeted to $65 in early April, down nearly 7.5% in a week, echoing the plunge in the wider cryptocurrency market. The market crash caused billions of dollars to evaporate market value, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $75,000, and altcoins generally fell.

Macro factors such as rising U.S. Treasury yields and expected interest rates appear to intensify risk aversion in global markets. In addition, the large outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs further hits the confidence of retail investors and institutional investors.

Against this backdrop, Litecoin is once again facing its long-term resistance level - the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). The EMA had suppressed LTC prices in July 2023, when the price was close to $88. Historically, the interaction between LTC and this EMA has often marked a major turning point, so the current trend is particularly critical.

The price trend of LTC has been maintained in a long-term upward channel, providing the last support for the bulls. At the same time, based on the fractal prediction of past EMA blocked events, three possible future trends are given, and the target price difference is huge. The coming weeks will determine whether history repeats itself or diverges.

Can Litecoin hold on to the final long structure?

Litecoin’s weekly chart shows a recurring pattern: strong resistance in the 200-week EMA, and after each resistance, the price trajectory is completely different. The chart shows three such cases.

The first time happened in November 2018, when LTC encountered EMA resistance and then entered a long-term consolidation phase. The subsequent rebound gradually unfolds in the next two years. Based on the predictions of this fractal (purple mark), LTC may rise moderately to $116 by December 2025, consistent with the upper track of the current upward channel.

The second resistance occurred in March 2020, when the global market collapsed due to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. However, the incident instead served as a springboard for Litecoin, soaring more than 115% in the next few weeks, eventually hitting a 1,320% increase in 2021.

The corresponding forecast (pink mark) is expected to rise to $288 by June 2026, a target price that will be far beyond the current range and requires a large-scale market rebound to achieve.

The latest EMA resistance that occurred in July 2023 is the basis of current price forecasts (dark green mark). If history repeats itself, Litecoin could rise moderately to $95.

However, LTC is still trading within the long-term upward channel, which is a key backdrop for these forecasts. The upper track of the channel is about $155, consistent with previous bull highs and potential resistance levels. So far, the lower rail of the channel has been supporting the price, providing the last support structure for the bulls.

If that support level falls, Litecoin could fall to $28, a long-term demand area (marked red). This will confirm the collapse of the overall structure. Currently, traders face two possibilities—EMA rebounds, is blocked again, or falls to historical lows.

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