Binance continues to expand its market dominance amid uncertainty in the crypto market.
Binance's spot trading volume is significantly higher than all other exchanges, and is as much as 8 times that of Coinbase, highlighting its absolute advantage in market share. CryptoQuant's data also confirms Binance's leading position in trading volume, which directly affects market liquidity and price trends. For example, in January 2024, Bitcoin price quickly rose from $42,000 to $73,000 after Binance traded volume surpassed its competitors. During the same period, Binance's native token BNB also rose from $335 to $645.
Binance's strong performance in spot trading volumes usually bodes with bullish market trends in the coming weeks. Binance and other exchanges have remained positive for BTC spot trading volume, which could bring bullish expectations in the coming months, despite a decline in overall trading volume.
However, despite Binance's increasing market dominance, BNB's price trend does not fully reflect this advantage. Large institutions and retail investors appear to be bearish about BNB. For example, gnomelabs recently sold 10,850 BNB tokens worth $6.51 million. According to GlassNode, the agency also deposited $76.37 million in USDC to Binance and Bybit. Large-scale selling behavior indicates insufficient market confidence and reflects bearish sentiment.
In addition, the futures market also showed strong bearish signals. A negative futures basis means future price expectations are lower than spot prices, indicating that traders expect price declines. The total funding rate of BNB also turned negative, further supporting the bearish sentiment in the futures market. The continued negative capital rates over the past week indicate that more traders are holding short positions and betting prices fall further.
Although Binance's market dominance continues to increase, BNB will not benefit in the short term. Therefore, BNB is still considered a bearish asset at present, and market conditions suggest a further correction before it can rebound upward. If bearish sentiment continues, the BNB price may fall below $600, or even as low as $576.
However, if historical trends can be used as a reference, repeating the previous cycle of Binance dominance soaring could push BNB prices to $618, or even further to $638.
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