Boeing: The world will need nearly 44,000 new commercial aircraft in the next 20 years

This website reported on July 22 that on the eve of the Farnborough Air Show, Boeing released its 2024 Civil Aviation Market Outlook (CMO), predicting that global airlines will need nearly 44,000 new civil aircraft by 2043.

The latest aircraft deliveries for the next 20 years are up 3% from last year’s forecast as air travel fully resumes. The outlook also predicts that emerging market and global single-aisle market demand will continue to be the main growth driver for the civil aviation industry.
According to the CMO, air passenger traffic will grow at an average annual rate of 4.7% over the next 20 years compared to 2023.
CMO forecast highlights for the next 20 years include:

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  全球民用机队预计每年增长 3.2%，增速较航空运量慢，因为航空公司继续通过提高上座率和增加飞机每日使用时间来提高生产力。




  拥有速度和可靠性优势的航空货运表现一直优于其他货运形式，货机机队到 2043 年将增加三分之二，以支持每年 4.1% 的航空货运量增长。


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Air travel trends:

<code>全球航空公司的平均票价与 20 年前几乎相同，尽管整体物价翻了一番。



  全球航空公司服务的航线数量已恢复到 2019 年的水平，其中近 20% 是新航线，这体现出航空业在充满活力的市场中的适应能力。


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Key growth drivers:

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  新兴市场在预测期内回归历史增长趋势，南亚地区客运量将增长 7.4%，其次是东南亚（7.2%）和非洲（6.4%）。



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Eurasia is expected to be the largest market by aircraft deliveries (% of total 22%), followed by North America (20%) and China (20%).

Single-aisle aircraft will account for 71% of the fleet in 2043, leveraging their flexibility to serve short and medium-haul routes, with a total of 33,380 new aircraft delivered previously.

The global wide-body fleet will more than double, with twin-aisle aircraft accounting for 44% of the Middle East fleet.

Service demand growth:

Boeing forecasts demand for civil aviation services to be worth $4.4 trillion, driven by repairs, modification programs and digital solutions to improve efficiency.

As air travel expands, especially in emerging markets, the civil aviation industry will need nearly 2.4 million new personnel, as well as related training to support new pilots, maintenance and cabin crew.

Note from this site: CMO has been published annually since 1961. As the oldest forecast report of its kind, CMO is known as the most comprehensive analysis of the civil aviation industry.

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