アルトコインが回復力を示す中、ビットコイン（BTC）価格が5万3000ドル以下に下落：次はどうなる？

ビットコインは依然として株式市場を追っており、特に9月に向けて伝統的な金融投資家が後退している。スポットETFの流出が増加する中、人々は明らかにFRBの利下げを前にリスクを回避している。

ビットコインは、8月下旬の下落が9月第1週にも続き、伝統的な金融投資家が連邦準備理事会の利下げを前に撤退したため、月曜日には52,756ドルまで下落した。

スポットETFの流出が増加しているため、人々は楽しみが始まる前に明らかにリスクを回避しています。しかし、アルトコインは回復力を見せており、ビットコインの市場支配力を侵食している。

Bitcoin dropped below a key level last week, but ETF and spot market flows will decide its fate.

Bitcoin began September with three consecutive red candles on a relative strength index (RSI) time-frame. It dropped to $52,756 by Monday, a level last seen on May 1.

That level is important because every time Bitcoin dropped to it, it rebounded fast, within two to three days.

This time, however, the asset’s fate depends on ETF and spot market flows. If equities stabilize, BTC could still recover.

May 1 also stands out because global open interest (OI) for Bitcoin hit its first major low after reaching an all-time high of $39.03 billion on March 29.

When BTC drops below these kinds of levels, it usually triggers leveraged liquidations, especially in altcoins. But the good thing about those is they help flush out speculative excess from the market.

Since Bitcoin hit its all-time high of $73,666, the asset has experienced three major price corrections: May 1, July 5, and August 5. Each of these corrections coincided with a drop in open interest.

It’s currently up about 10.4% from the August 5 low, while open interest has increased by 6.67%. This shows a healthy correlation between price and OI.

But analysts don’t see this as a bottom signal, though Bitcoin could stay in this range or rise slightly unless there’s another wave of spot selling or de-risking.

The major reason for Bitcoin’s sell-off last week was the SPX’s downturn. The S&P 500 fell 4.25%, marking the worst week for the index since March 2023. BTC fell 5.45% during the same period.

For context, in late July, the SPX fell 2.06%, while BTC dropped by 14.9%. This time, the drop was less extreme, which could be a sign that sellers are getting tired.

That would explain why altcoins are now showing more strength. Open interest for altcoins listed on major exchanges (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) is down 55% from its March 25 all-time high. The aggregated open interest is at $8.75 billion.

The ETH/BTC ratio is currently below 0.042, the lowest since April 2021. Since the Merge, Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin by over 44%.

Even though there was a brief uptick before the launch of its ETFs, Ether has continued to struggle against Bitcoin.

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