10x Research: Bitcoin's rise is due to macro factors! Halving and ETFs are not bullish

This site (120BTc.coM): Markus Thielen, a research analyst at 10x Research, said that selling pressure is blanketing the cryptocurrency market today and will almost certainly drive prices down in the short term.

Bitcoin ETF traffic continues to decline

Markus Thielen said on CoinDesk’s Podcast that there are currently no catalysts that can push the price up again: We no longer have the ability to push the price from 40,000 The U.S. dollar's upward momentum has pushed up to $70,000, mainly due to the Bitcoin spot ETF. There has been almost no inflow of new funds in the past few weeks. Investors have passed the initial excitement period, and traditional financial investors no longer seem interested.

Previously, Markus Thiele continued to be bullish when ETF flows declined, and believed that stablecoins were the real indicator of capital inflows.

Macro factors are unfavorable

Markus Thielen emphasized that the macro environment is the main driving force for price increases. From the end of last year to the beginning of 2024, traders believed that the Federal Reserve would make multiple adjustments this year. Expectations of interest rate cuts have boosted the prices of risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Markus Thielen: The inflow of funds into the Bitcoin ETF did not stop suddenly, but stopped when the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were released on March 12.

He cited the March inflation report and other data, pointing out that inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, leading the Federal Reserve to repeatedly express uncertainty about whether it will cut interest rates.

Bitcoin halving is never a bullish event

Bitcoin halving often brings about a bull market, but Markus Thielen still believes that it is macro factors that bring about a bull market for Bitcoin, not halving: The rally is primarily due to the positive macro environment rather than the halving itself. For example, the last halving occurred in May 2020, and with the massive fiscal stimulus (rate cuts, money printing) surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, I would hardly attribute any increase to the halving.

He expects the market to usher in a period of weeks-long consolidation, with Bitcoin potentially falling to $50,000 and rebounding before the end of the year.

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