JPMorgan Chase: Comparing gold investment data, Bitcoin is about to peak

Original author: JP Morgan

Compiled by: Odaily Planet Daily Nan Zhi

On Thursday, a JPMorgan analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou released a Bitcoin ETF research report stating: “Risk is a key factor that is often overlooked, and Bitcoin should be included in investment portfolios alongside gold. Matches ". The report stated that the total value of gold currently held for financial investment purposes is US$3.3 trillion. If the market value of Bitcoin rises to the same value, the price of Bitcoin will more than double.

(Odaily Planet Daily Note: Based on 67,000 USDT, the current market value of Bitcoin is US$1,316.4 billion, which is still 150% away from US$3.3 trillion. The total market value of gold is US$14.5 trillion.)

The report points out that most investors will consider risk and volatility when allocating across assets, and Bitcoin’s volatility is about 3.7 times that of gold, so expect Bitcoin to be in the investment portfolio It is unrealistic for China to reach a nominal amount equivalent to gold (that is, the market value is difficult to reach 3.3 trillion US dollars). If Bitcoin matched gold in venture capital, the 3.3 trillion market cap should be divided by 3.7, and a reasonable market cap would be $890 billion.

The analyst said, “This means that the (reasonable) price of Bitcoin is 45,000 USDT, which is much lower than the current level. In other words,

At the current price of 66,000 USDT, Bitcoin is still in the market among investors Portfolio allocations have exceeded volatility-adjusted gold. ”

ETF inflows are expected to be $62 billion

Of $3.3 trillion in gold reserves, only About 7% is held in funds, equivalent to about $230 billion, with the remainder held in bars and coins.

Therefore, based on the same calculation with a fluctuation ratio of 3.7,

the reasonable size of Bitcoin ETF is about 62 billion US dollars , which is also the potential target upper limit of Bitcoin ETF. Over time, it may Achieved within two to three years. But a large portion of the net inflows are likely to come from the continued rotation into ETFs from existing (investment) vehicles.

According to statistics from Dune, the Bitcoin spot ETF currently holds 791,085 BTC and has an asset management scale of US$53 billion, which is compared with the reasonable scale of US$9 billion proposed by JPMorgan Chase. , the gap is large.

Farside Investors data shows that as of 15:00 on March 8, since the adoption of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the cumulative net inflow has been US$9.37 billion.

Therefore, if the same pace is maintained, it will reach the upper limit of JPMorgan Chase’s forecast in May this year. )

Reference: JPMorgan Chase’s previous forecast report

Odaily Planet Daily compiled the previous report of the JPMorgan analyst team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Its recent forecasts and opinions are as follows:

Report on February 29: The halving event in April may trigger a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin, which is expected to fall to 42,000 USDT;

Report on February 22: Retail investors’ interest in cryptocurrencies Enthusiasm rebounded in February and may therefore be one of the reasons for the strong gains in the cryptocurrency market this month. The main lines are AI and Meme; (Note: WLD closing price on that day was 8.15 USDT, PEPE closing price was 0.0{5}121 USDT)

January 25th report: GBTC profit-taking is basically over, and Bitcoin has room to fall. Limited; (Note: BTC's closing price on the day was 39961 USDT)

January 18th report: With GBTC profit-taking, Bitcoin prices may face greater pressure; (Note: BTC's closing price on the day was 41327 USDT )

Report on January 12: The probability of Ethereum spot ETF being approved before May is no more than 50%;

Report on January 11: Bitcoin spot for the whole year of 2024 ETFs are expected to see $36 billion in inflows, and GBTC is expected to see $13 billion in outflows.

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