Musk is optimistic and OpenAI is entering. Is Tesla's long-term value a robot?

Technology madman Musk and his Tesla have always been at the forefront of global technological innovation.

Recently, at Tesla’s 2023 shareholder meeting, Musk once again disclosed more ambitious plans for future development, including cars, energy storage, and humanoid robots. Musk believes that humanoid robots are the key to Tesla's long-term value in the future, so he is very optimistic about it.

It is worth mentioning that OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT, has also invested in a Norwegian robotics company with the intention of building the first commercial robot EVE.

The competition between Optimus and EVE has also triggered a craze for the concept of humanoid robots in the domestic secondary market. Driven by the concept, which links in the humanoid robot industry chain will benefit? What are the investment targets?

Layout of automobiles, energy storage, and humanoid robots

As a global technology innovation giant, Tesla’s 2023 shareholders’ meeting has attracted global attention.

In the early morning of May 17, Tesla held a shareholder meeting at the Texas Gigafactory in the United States. As a global innovation flag, what focus does Tesla have in the innovation industry? What are the company's future plans?

Throughout the conference, Musk mainly introduced and planned the three major areas of vehicles, energy storage, and robots.

When talking about Tesla, you have to mention car manufacturing. In this important direction related to global travel, Musk is confident about future car sales and reiterated the production capacity target of 20 million cars in 2030.

Tesla’s key investment, Cybertruck, plans to have an annual production capacity of between 250,000 and 500,000 vehicles. In addition, the company will also launch two new models, with annual output expected to exceed 5 million vehicles, and will be the first to be produced at the Mexican Gigafactory.

In terms of energy storage, Musk said that he believes that the battery business will grow faster than cars, and will bet on Megapack production capacity in the future, including the further expansion of the production capacity of the Nevada factory in the United States, and the establishment of 40GWh capacity factories in the United States and China.

In addition to his layout in the two major fields of automobiles and energy storage, Musk also spent a lot of space introducing humanoid robots.

Tesla launched a humanoid robot named "Optimus" as early as 2022. Musk emphasized at the shareholder meeting that Tesla’s robot Optimus will use the same FSD system as the company’s electric vehicles.

In addition, Musk also predicted that "Everyone will own a humanoid robot in the future, and this market will exceed the demand for electric vehicles and may be worth tens of billions of dollars."

From this, he believes that the demand for humanoid robot Optimus will reach 10 billion units in the future, which will far exceed Tesla cars. He even said that there is no need to be surprised if Tesla's future business is based on its humanoid robots: "Most of Tesla's long-term value will be Optimus. I am very confident in this prediction."

Tesla, OpenAI enter the military robot

Bionic humans, also known as humanoid robots, refer to robots that imitate humans in appearance and behavior. Previously, the concept of humanoid robots mainly stayed in the field of science fiction. However, with the development of technology and the application of AI, many technology giants are entering the field of humanoid robots.

As early as 2021, Tesla is laying out the field of humanoid robots. Musk released the concept of humanoid robot TeslaBot (Optimus) on TeslaAIDay.

In 2022, Tesla officially demonstrated Optimus, a bipedal humanoid robot that can walk independently without any mechanical support, and each finger can be used flexibly independently.

At the time, Musk said that the robot business would be more valuable than cars. However, Tesla was still struggling with its battery configuration at that time. It said that it was developing a special battery and actuator for Optimus to keep power consumption at a minimum level so that Optimus could work for a full day on a single charge. All day long.

Compared to the humanoid robots in the Kehuan world, Optimus obviously performed unsatisfactory, but it is undeniable that Tesla has taken a huge step in the commercialization of humanoid robots.

Domestically, Xiaomi also deployed humanoid robots earlier. On August 11, 2022, Xiaomi officially announced its first full-size humanoid bionic robot CyberOne at its autumn new product launch conference.

This year, with the launch of ChatGPT, AI large-scale models have been further developed, which has also made more additions to robot intelligence. OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT, which is a leader in the field of large-scale models, is also interested in entering the field of humanoid robots. Recently, OpenAI, Tiger Fund and a consortium of Norwegian investors invested in the Norwegian robotics company 1X Technologies (formerly known as Halodi Robotics).

1XTechnologies intends to use the funds to increase research and development of its upcoming bipedal robot model NEO, as well as mass-produce its first commercial robot EVE in Norway and North America.

The founder of 1XTechnologies further stated, “1X is excited to have OpenAI lead the investment, as our missions are aligned: to consciously integrate emerging technologies into people’s daily lives. We will continue to make significant progress and enhance the field of robotics The competitiveness of the global labor market cannot be achieved without the support of investors."

CITIC Securities Research believes that robots are one of the important carriers of AI technology. The combination of ChatGPT and robots will make up for the shortcomings of current robots in intelligence, ease of use, and economy, and effectively increase the penetration rate of robots in various industries. At the same time, ChatGPT will also shorten the transition time for the development of robots from single-function dedicated robots to complex and multi-functional general-purpose robots.

What are the humanoid robot concept stocks?

Domestically, the benefits of humanoid robots have already swept the secondary market. As the Tesla shareholders meeting again reported good news for the development of humanoid robots, the robot concept sector rose significantly at the opening of trading on May 18, including Fengli Intelligent (301368.SZ), Zhongwei Electronics (300270.SZ), and Robot (300024.SZ). ), Haozhi Electromechanical (300503.SZ) and others led the gains.

Regarding investment opportunities in the humanoid robot industry chain, China Merchants Securities believes that humanoid robots include three major modules: environment perception module, motion control module and human-computer interaction. Compared with traditional industrial robots, humanoid robots have a greater impact on systems and The demand for parts is more sophisticated and high-end, bringing differentiated demands from traditional industrial robots, which are mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. Reducer: The reducers currently used for robots are mainly precision reducers, including small-volume harmonic reducers suitable for light load positions and RV reducers suitable for heavy load positions. .

In recent years, the substitution trend in the domestic reducer market has been obvious. As harmonic reducers, RV reducers and other products develop toward diversification, lightweighting, mechatronics and other trends, domestic manufacturers that actively deploy this technology trend are expected to benefit.

2. Controller and MCU: Since humanoid robots have more complex motion patterns, in order to perform complex and high-speed operations required for motor control, the number of motors on the humanoid robot body has increased, which is expected to bring demand for MCUs. Increase.

3. AI chip: Tesla uses electric car autonomous driving technology to empower humanoid robots, using a single self-developed SoC chip - FSD, supported by the same underlying technology as cars. In addition to Tesla's self-supplied chips, major companies in autonomous driving chips include Nvidia, Intel Mobileye, and Tesla. Huawei's domestic technology is already relatively advanced, and Horizon, Black Sesame Intelligence, Xinchi Technology, and Xinqing Technology are also related. layout.

4. Sensors: The robot's perception function is mainly realized by various sensors and cameras, which accordingly brings all-round incremental demand for CMOS, microphones, IR sensors, gas sensors, etc.

Zheshang Securities further stated that humanoid robots are expected to promote the rapid growth of companies within the industry chain. In the future, Tesla robots are expected to continue to benefit from further reductions in cost and domestic components . Key recommendations: 1) Double-ring transmission (002472 .SZ): Domestic gear leader, Tesla’s exclusive supplier of domestic electric vehicle gears, and is expected to further cooperate with Tesla in the RV field; 2) Green Harmonic (688017.SH): A breakthrough in the localization of harmonic reducers , leading the industry in profitability; 3) Eston (002747.SZ): domestic robot leader, high-end transmission system independently controllable; pay attention to Inovance Technology (300124.SZ), Hechuan Technology (688320.SH), and MOONS Electric Appliances (603728.SH), Jiangsu Leili (300660.SZ), Zhongli De (002896.SZ), Hanyu Group (300403.SZ), Tuopu Group (601689.SH), Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050. SZ).

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