The only way long videos can defeat short videos is AI?

May 23, 2023 issue| Total Issue 3244

Following the upsurge of discussion on ChatGPT in March, AI technology has recently made trouble again.

In early May, Hollywood screenwriters went on strike collectively, loudly calling for an increase in screenwriters’ income.

More than 11,000 members of the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and their supporters took to the streets and replaced their pens with baseball bats. The WGA has made multiple demands, even targeting AI: studios are prohibited from using AI to write literary materials; it is prohibited from using it as original material; and it is prohibited from using materials created by writers to train AI.

In mid-May, the U.S. Senate held a hearing to review the issue of AI regulation. It discussed whether AI will generate dangerous content, whether it will threaten U.S. national security, whether it will infringe on citizens’ privacy, whether AI will affect employment, and whether AI will generate dangerous content. Whether the supervision of the United States will affect the position of the United States in international competition will be discussed.

This fire has not yet reached the country. But for practitioners in the film and television industry, AI technology is a topic that requires constant attention and is always new.

Why are Americans afraid of AI?

It seems that when discussing ChatGPT, AI and robots, some people hold the position of "context determinism". Judging from my observation of people around me and the Internet community, Chinese people are generally optimistic about AI.

It is true that some people have become the first to bear the brunt of the rise of AI. For example, illustrators, original painters, etc. But more people regard ChatGPT and Midjourney V5 as fashionable toys.

Two months ago, NetEase and Tencent released the AIGC (Generative Artificial Intelligence) application guide, publishing all tutorials on how to use AIGC to produce content. Original painting designers can completely use AI tools to save many complicated preliminary steps. The view of most people in the industry is that many positions will not be replaced by AI for the time being, but those who cannot use AI tools will be replaced by people who are proficient in using AI tools to improve efficiency. Soon, in some industries, AI tools will become a basic skill set, just like Word and Excel today.

But the attitude of Americans is more cautious. In other words, fear took over.

First of all, there is the fear of unemployment.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman asserted in February this year that AI would replace clerical white-collar jobs. In April, he mentioned in an interview that AI will play an important role in reducing costs and increasing efficiency. No coincidence. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said in an interview that approximately 7,800 IBM jobs will be replaced by AI and automation tools within five years. He announced that IBM would suspend hiring for positions that are not directly connected to customers.

Not too “smart” artificial intelligence

The World Economic Forum released a survey report at the end of last month. The report predicts that by 2027, related positions such as data analysis, machine learning and network security are expected to grow by an average of 30%; on the other hand, the application of artificial intelligence technology will This will put some occupations at risk of being eliminated, and it is expected that 26 million administrative and other jobs will be reduced by 2027. Career prospects for data entry and administrative secretaries are particularly grim.

Some practitioners in the film and television industry are also facing unemployment problems. The striking Hollywood screenwriters believe that although AI technology is still unable to replace the work of professional screenwriters at this stage, the purpose of the studio is not pure. They will first use AI to complete 80% of the script content, and then hire "temporary" screenwriters to modify and polish the work. It’s an act of “using the illusion of technology to devalue us and reduce our paychecks.”

Hollywood screenwriters on strike

Secondly, the abuse of AI technology will also produce too much false news on social media.

Yesterday, the topic #AI Fraud Success Rate is Close to 100%# was on Weibo hot search. The latest AI scams such as voice synthesis and AI face-changing are hard to guard against. Someone had clearly verified their friend's identity through a WeChat video, but unexpectedly encountered AI face-changing. With “familiar” faces and “real” voices, it’s hard not to be deceived.

In late March this year, a set of arrest photos of former US President Trump circulated on the Chinese Internet. Needless to say, this was generated by AI. Later, another AI photo of Trump holding a gun in a street fight leaked. Trump is very famous, and most netizens will not believe these photos, but what if the story had a different protagonist?

At the House AI hearing, someone raised a question: Since virtual recordings can be synthesized through AI, what if the information provided by AI is contrary to my position? Will the audience also think that this is my position?

Some people say that AI will also make humans lose their ability to think. Self-searching disappears when AI can tell us any information we want. When AI can tell us the latest news, newspapers or journalism will disappear. When AI can tell us what we should buy, the advertising industry will disappear.

Historian Yuval Harari’s concerns are the most unique. In his view, rapidly developing AI can destroy human civilization without developing consciousness, using a soft perspective - the ability to tell good stories.

He said that AI has cracked the operating system of human civilization.

"Our political views are shaped by reports from journalists and anecdotes from friends. Movies and fairy tales shape our sexual preferences. Even the way we walk and breathe is influenced by cultural traditions... What gives any currency value is the story we are told about it by bankers, treasury ministers, cryptocurrency experts, etc. ”

With the development of AI, this kind of story can be easily told.

Not too “smart” Imgit (painting software)

What’s even more frightening is that humans can be persuaded, but AI cannot be persuaded. The process of you trying to convince AI is to continuously train it. Robots will learn more and more about us and how to adapt their information, and they may even influence our opinions in turn, persuading humans to change their political and economic views.

Insert a digression here, Americans’ concerns about AI are also reflected in the self-produced and self-sold search engine companies. To put it simply, Google and Bing, which only provided search functions in the past, have also become content producers with the evolution of AIGC.

This is a bit like today’s video websites, integrating production and broadcasting.

Liu Cixin once said that AI technology will allow humans to voluntarily enter a technological "comfort zone." With the development of artificial intelligence, most jobs can be completed by robots. In this case, humans will increasingly hand over their rights to the operation of society. Humanity is easily "annihilated" by AI.

What can AI bring to the film and television industry?

However, there is no need to be overly anxious. At present, artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT and Midjourney V5 have more advantages than disadvantages for professionals engaged in the film and television industry. People inside and outside the industry, including Youku CTO Zheng Yong, Linghe Culture founder Bai Yicong, and Song Yangyang, deputy director of the Creative Industry Technology Research Institute of Renmin University of China, have all emphasized that artificial intelligence technology will contribute to the future development of the film and television industry. Provides a lot of help.

The first is the improvement of visual effects design efficiency by AI. After ChatGPT enters the 4.0 era, AIGC has the ability to surpass low-level programmers and original painting illustrators. Zheng Yong said in interviews in the past, "To create a character, a style, and a scene before, you need to draw a sketch first, determine the general direction, and then finalize it after the final drawing. The entire link process is It’s very long, and there are a lot of people involved. Now there are artificial intelligence solutions, and by combining the two, it can be completed in half a day at the fastest, and it doesn’t require so many people.”

Baidu Wenxin Yige

Bai Yicong also said that using AI graphics can significantly shorten the art cycle of film and television works with heavy special effects, and reduce designers’ rework and communication costs. For example, the preliminary preparations for "The Three-Body Problem" required eight to nine thousand concept design drawings. Such a large workload used to take several months, but with AI mapping, it may be completed in an afternoon.

Of course, Compared to live-action series and movies, AIGC’s assistance to animation production is more obvious. In February this year, Netflix launched the first AIGC animated short film "The Dog and the Boy". This is a joint creation by Netflix, Microsoft Xiaoice and WIT STUDIO. AIGC is mainly responsible for the drawing of some animation scenes. Compared with the scenes drawn by artists manually, "The Dog and the Boy" is undoubtedly immature. But compared to the completely AI-generated sitcom "Nothing, Forever" that launched on the Twitch platform in December last year, it has improved a lot.

Previous: "The Dog and the Boy" Next: "Nothing, Forever"

As mentioned above, AI face-changing has become a new means of fraud. Then, AIGC may also be able to provide help for some film and television works that cannot be broadcast due to bad artists. If AIGC technology is further developed, will Guo Jingming be able to directly use virtual people to replace real actors when he shoots "Grand Trail" again?

In addition to pre-planning and post-production, AIGC currently plays a greater role in publicity and distribution. In March this year, Enlight Media's movie "Go to Your Island" was officially announced, and the poster released simultaneously was produced by AI.

Instead of worrying that your job will be replaced by AI, it is better to learn how to master AI tools proficiently. At present, artificial intelligence behaves more like an intern. You have to talk to it back and forth to get the results you want. It also does not have the ability to produce content on its own. It must enter a certain number of keywords and debug repeatedly to produce effective information. The author tried Baidu's Wenxin Yige, but the performance was not very satisfactory. Midjourney V5 performs better, but its operation is cumbersome and its input is all in English.

The not-so-smart Wen Xin Yige

The collective strike of Hollywood screenwriters is not essentially a fear of AI, but a kind of anger against capitalists. Why do Hollywood studios dare to squeeze screenwriters so freely? Because the classic narrative has gone backwards. Hollywood blockbusters have been stuck between childishness and infantilization for a long time. Take a look at the films that are currently achieving high box office in North America and around the world. Stories such as "Fast and Furious 10" and "Spider-Man 3" can indeed be written using AI tools.

Can AI really replace screenwriters? otherwise. In fact, wordsmiths can never be replaced. Even if ChatGPT's knowledge base stores all the content written by Shakespeare, Tang Xianzu, and Dante, it cannot write a "Dose of Addiction", "Parasite" or "Hurry". Narrowly speaking, the greatest charm of literature or film and television works is not to tell a wonderful and ups and downs story, but to reach the softness deep in the heart.

Kevin Kelly, the author of "Out of Control", said that after the emergence of ChatGPT, humans must master two skills: How to ask good questions and how to learn. "We were in an era where getting answers was expensive and difficult. Most people gained knowledge in school, as well as critical thinking and wisdom, which can help us come up with the right answers. The emergence of artificial intelligence , answers have become cheap or even free. Then asking the right questions and good questions is more important than the answers."

In the Internet age, tools are in front of everyone. It's also Excel. Some people can only make tables, while others use it to make games. The operation of ChatGPT is simpler, but it requires you to master the ability to ask effective questions to enter the sensitive area of ​​artificial intelligence. Of course, for Chinese people, there is another ability that needs to be mastered, and that is how to accurately use English to ask questions.

Next, let us make some guesses. What else can AIGC bring to the film and television industry?

I think the biggest possibility is to shake the status of short videos.

The biggest problem with long videos at present is that they cannot provide more excitement value. Several popular dramas this year have essentially achieved emotional victory. Audiences, especially Chinese audiences, are no longer willing to go into theaters to watch so-called special effects blockbusters. The box office results of "Fast and Furious 10" and "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" speak for themselves. They are more willing to pay for things that impress them. As AI continues to advance, can virtual glasses, helmets, and brain-computer devices also continue to develop? Do you still remember the interactive dramas that were quite popular a few years ago?

"Fast and Furious 10"

The emergence of long videos has deprived humans of their reading habits formed over thousands of years. If you read books just to listen to stories, then TV dramas and movies will undoubtedly be more vivid. The emergence of short videos has made long videos lose their advantages. The former is too fast-paced. But AI technology can make humans willingly slow down. It creates no anxiety and no collective interaction. Everyone can immerse themselves in their own "Peach Blossom Land".

Two days ago, I saw a video on station B. As long as you put on Meta Quest 2, a VR device from Facebook (now renamed Meta), you can play the music game "Maestro: The Masterclass". In the game, the player plays a conductor, which is very cool. I'm ready to place an order.

[Text/Ma Er]

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