Election Eve Bulwark Live for members starts at 9pm. Details and location link here.

Election Day: We're changing up our plans slightly and going live for everyone starting at 7:30pm ET on the Bulwark YouTube page—click “notify me” to set an alert.

then Harris is going to win the popular vote by a lot. Like, a *lot* lot.

(4) But the Electoral College is still tight. I keep saying that the Electoral College is a structural advantage for Trump. And it is. But if Harris is winning the popular vote by 6 or 7 points, then she should be able to squeak out an Electoral College victory.

The polls are showing that this race is tightening. And that’s good news for Trump. But the polls are also showing that Harris should be able to pull this out. And that’s good news for her.

2. The Harris Ground Game

The Harris campaign has been touting their ground game for months now. And they’ve been putting a lot of emphasis on it in the final stretch.

But what does a ground game actually do? And how do we know if it’s working?

There are a few key things that a ground game can do to help a candidate win an election:

- Get out the vote (GOTV): This is the most important thing that a ground game can do. They can help to identify and mobilize voters who are likely to support the candidate and make sure that they get to the polls on Election Day.

- Persuade undecided voters: A ground game can also help to persuade undecided voters to support the candidate. They can do this by having conversations with voters, distributing literature, and organizing events.

- Counteract the opposition's ground game: Finally, a ground game can help to counteract the efforts of the opposition's ground game. They can do this by monitoring the opposition's activities and responding to any negative tactics that they may be using.

There are a few ways to measure the effectiveness of a ground game. One way is to look at the turnout numbers in the areas where the ground game is operating. If the turnout is higher in these areas than in other areas, then it suggests that the ground game is having a positive impact.

Another way to measure the effectiveness of a ground game is to look at the candidate's performance in the areas where the ground game is operating. If the candidate is performing better in these areas than in other areas, then it suggests that the ground game is having a positive impact.

The Harris campaign has been putting a lot of emphasis on their ground game in the final stretch of the campaign. And they believe that it will help her to win the election.

But what does the evidence say? Does a ground game actually make a difference in the outcome of an election?

The evidence on the effectiveness of ground games is mixed. Some studies have found that ground games can have a significant impact on turnout and candidate performance. Other studies have found that the impact of ground games is more modest.

One study, conducted by the University of California, Berkeley, found that a ground game operation increased turnout by an average of 2.2 percentage points in the 2008 presidential election. The study also found that the ground game operation had a positive impact on candidate performance, increasing the candidate's vote share by an average of 1.4 percentage points.

Another study, conducted by the University of Michigan, found that a ground game operation had no impact on turnout in the 2012 presidential election. However, the study did find that the ground game operation had a small positive impact on candidate performance, increasing the candidate's vote share by an average of 0.5 percentage points.

Overall, the evidence on the effectiveness of ground games is mixed. Some studies have found that ground games can have a significant impact on turnout and candidate performance. Other studies have found that the impact of ground games is more modest.

However, it is important to note that the impact of a ground game may vary depending on a number of factors, such as the size and enthusiasm of the candidate's base of support, the competitiveness of the race, and the resources that are available to the campaign.

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