Election Eve: Selzer and Times/Sienna Let's unpack the big polls from the weekend and what they mean for our outcome distribution. And let's do it rundown style.

For weeks I've been writing about how the quantitative polling did not match up with qualitative reality of the race.

then Harris is going to win the popular vote by a landslide.

(4) Harris is going to win the Electoral College. This is the big question and the polls don’t answer it directly. But they do answer it indirectly and the answer is clear: Harris is going to win the Electoral College.

The polls show her winning the popular vote by a landslide. And they show her winning the swing states by a landslide.

If she wins the popular vote by a landslide and wins the swing states by a landslide, then she is going to win the Electoral College by a landslide.

It’s over. Harris wins. Now let’s see by how much.

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