Bitcoin's Price Might Serve as an Indicator of Trump's Election Success

"Potential crypto-supporter" Donald Trump is heavily engaging with the digital currency realm, influencing his election odds and Bitcoin's price.

Former President Donald Trump, who was once critical of cryptocurrencies, is now engaging heavily with the digital currency space, which is impacting his chances in the upcoming election and influencing the price of Bitcoin. However, a potential misstep could derail his plans.

During his presidency, Trump wasn't a fan of cryptocurrencies, calling them "unregulated," a way to "promote drug trafficking," and just "hot air" in 2019 on his preferred platform, Twitter. But like many of his previous statements, this view has taken a backseat in Trump's current political strategy. Now, with a potential second term in sight, Trump is embracing the crypto community.

Trump has been exploring the voting potential in the tech-heavy Silicon Valley, associating with right-wing tech influencers like Elon Musk and generating income by selling digital collectibles (NFTs) and even accepting cryptocurrency donations. At a recent crypto conference in Nashville, he presented himself as the future 'Bitcoin booster' for wallet owners, promising to make the USA a technologically advanced "Bitcoin powerhouse," boost cryptocurrency to a strategic reserve, and possibly even dismiss the crypto-critical head of the US securities regulator.

Trump's association with the crypto world is now so strong that Bitcoin's price is noticeably swaying with each shift in his election chances. Many investors are speculating on Trump's victory, hoping for favorable legislation and consequently higher investment returns.

Bitcoin's Victory Meter

While Bitcoin's price does fluctuate like other markets, recent weeks have shown some unusual movements that suggest the cryptocurrency's price might be increasingly influenced by Trump's prospect of reclaiming the White House.

The most obvious example came after Trump's near-death experience. Following the attack, Bitcoin's price surged, jumping from around $60,000 to nearly $67,000 within a week. Trump's resilience and determination in the face of adversity were lauded both domestically and internationally. Amidst this, Trump's loyal tech supporters, such as Elon Musk, showered him with million-dollar donations.

However, a week later, the political landscape changed. The Democrats, led by their faltering candidate, Joe Biden, seemed to be losing steam. Biden conceded soon after, and his Vice President, Kamala Harris, emerged as the new strong candidate for the Democrats. In response, Bitcoin's price dropped from $68,000 to $64,000.

This, however, does not equate to a definitive correlation. Interestingly, despite Trump's declaration of support for Bitcoin at the Nashville conference, the Bitcoin price plummeted dramatically within a week, dropping from $67,000 to below $54,0?00. This crash was even more severe for other cryptocurrencies like Ether.

Bitcoin Isn't a Surefire Bet on Trump

The crash was probably more related to the general market correction than the reactions of crypto investors to Trump's campaign. Investors across the globe were shifting away from risky assets towards safe havens like government bonds this week. Major stock markets experienced unprecedented falls.

Even Trump's influence over the financial markets is limited. Regardless of how closely related Trump's election chances are to Bitcoin's sudden post-attack boom, statistically, the Bitcoin price is strongly impacted by the broader stock market trends, with the US tech stock exchange, Nasdaq, having the most significant influence.

What's peculiar is that in July, the usual correlation between Trump's election chances and Bitcoin's price was disrupted by stock markets and the Bitcoin price developing separately – an unusual statistical occurrence. The ensuing months will reveal the true extent of this correlation leading up to the election.

Analysts predict the relationship will strengthen, and Bitcoin will likely continue to serve as a barometer for Trump's election chances. Trump's crypto-friendly stance has yet to be explicitly matched by the Democrats in their campaign, particularly Kamala Harris.

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