The Clock Has Ticked on Bitcoin's (BTC) Post Halving Surge, 100 Days After the Latest Quadrennial Halving

July 29 marks the 100th day since the Bitcoin blockchain cut per block mining rewards to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) price action has largely consolidated over the past 100 days, following a 300% price rally in the first half of 2024. Now, as the clock ticks past the 100th day since the latest halving, new research suggests that the bullish impact of the halving might just begin kicking in.

The latest halving, implemented on April 20, reduced the reward paid to BTC miners for validating transactions to 3.125 BTC from 6.25 BTC. The next halving will occur in about 600 days.

The primary goal of the code is to control the supply of bitcoin and ensure it becomes scarce over time, unlike fiat currencies, which have ever-increasing supply (monetary inflation). Bitcoin's supply is capped at 21 million, and reward halving helps to manage the speed at which that limit is hit.

Previous Halvings Paved the Way for Multi-Fold Price Rallies

The code was first implemented in 2012 and saw the per-block reward paid to miners reduce to 25 BTC from 50 BTC. Over the next two halvings, the per-block supply fell to 6.25 BTC.

Each of the previous halvings paved the way for multi-fold price rallies, with most gains coming after the first 100 days. Now, as we cross that threshold once again, let’s take a closer look at what the data says.

"Today marks exactly 100 days after the Bitcoin Halving event on April 20. The market tends to have a short memory, but the halving-induced supply deficit should just start taking effect from now on."

Andre Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, made the above statement on X, as he scanned the performance data before and after the previous three halvings.

The study showed that the mean excess performance – the difference between performance X number of days after the halving and X before halving – increases significantly 100 days after the halving and becomes statistically significant, with "T-values" exceeding 2%.

The T-value is a statistical figure used in hypothesis testing to determine how far the sample mean is from the population mean, which is stabilized by the sample's variability.

"The key takeaway is that 100 days after the Halving, the performance difference becomes statistically significant (T-value > 2) and then becomes increasingly significant until around 400 days after the Halving," Dragosch told CoinDesk.

The chart above shows that the mean excess performance rises above 100% from the 100th day after halving and eventually peaks into four figures. It remains to be seen if history will repeat itself.

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