TrendForce predicts that DRAM and NAND Flash prices will increase by 18% in the first quarter of this year

According to news from this site on January 21, TrendForce research shows that the first quarter of this year has become a growth season, with DRAM contract prices rising by about 13~18% quarter-on-quarter; NAND Flash prices rising by 18~23%. Analysts pointed out that although the current market view on the overall demand in the second quarter is still conservative, it is expected that the contract price growth of DRAM and NAND Flash in the second quarter will converge to 3~8%. However, under the premise that the market demand outlook in 2024 is still conservative, the price trends of both are determined by the supplier's capacity utilization. Referring to previous reports on this site, the contract price of DRAM products began to fall from the fourth quarter of 2021, falling for for two consecutive years and then began to rise in the fourth quarter of 2023; the contract price of NAND Flash began to fall from the third quarter of 2022. After falling for four consecutive seasons, prices will begin to rise in the third quarter of 2023. Analysts believe that the third quarter is the traditional peak season, and the growth should continue in the fourth quarter as long as suppliers can maintain effective production control strategies. It is worth mentioning that the DRAM/NAND contract price here generally refers to the entire market. If only some end products are considered, there may not be much increase. Analysts also mentioned that the reason for the expanded increase in DRAM contract prices is the increase in market penetration of DDR5 and HBM products. If we only look at a single product, for example, DDR5 may still experience a quarterly decline, which means that this year’s price increase will not mean an overall increase in all chips. It's because product categories are gradually shifting.

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