Emotion is the devil: you shouldn't always be bearish at the bottom and bullish at the top

Original title: "Why are people bearish at the bottom, but bullish at the top?"

Hey, friends! Does anyone else find human psychology interesting?

When cryptocurrencies fall, we spend a lot of time analyzing, trying to predict the exact bottom, always with great caution.

But when the market rises, we become confident and buy directly with almost no analysis. We click the green button as if tomorrow doesn’t exist.

Why do we do this?

Why do people go short when it’s at the bottom and long when it’s at the top?

Fear and greed, these are the two emotions that seem to drive most of our actions in the crypto market.

When fear takes over, everything feels apocalyptic. Twitter/X is awash with apocalyptic warnings of further collapse and calls for surrender.

"It's over, goodbye everyone, nice to meet you."

But when greed takes over, ecstasy takes over. Suddenly, everyone becomes an expert, confidently predicting that new highs are just around the corner.

"If this coin goes up another 10,000%, I can retire. Go LFG!"

So, why did this happen? What about this situation?

Why are we so cautious at the bottom of the market and throw caution to the wind at the top?

This is largely due to loss aversion. We feel the pain of loss far more strongly than the joy of gain.

#We are also social creatures, and the fear of missing out (FOMO) is very strong. It’s hard to sit back and watch while everyone around us is getting rich quick. The herd effect takes over and we jump into the market, often just in time for the market's peak. It's hard to stay calm when you hear every day about other people's sudden fortunes.

On the other hand, when prices plummet and everyone is fleeing, our instinct is to follow them. Holding on can feel like fighting a losing battle. The prospect of further losses obscures in our minds the potential for future gains.

Yes, for most people, predicting bottoms and tops is foolish.

When emotions reach extremes, the ship has usually sailed away. By the time your Twitter/X feed is all bullish at the top, or bearish at the bottom, it's probably too late.

Ironically, the best opportunities often lie in going against the trend.

Buy when others are overwhelmed by fear and sell when greed and ecstasy are overwhelming. Yes, I know, it’s easier said than done, and bucking the trend requires a lot of mental toughness.

But as one of the greatest investors said, I am fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.

So, if predicting tops and bottoms based on sentiment is generally a losing strategy, what’s a better approach?

One way is to focus on your own analysis and develop a plan.

Instead of trying to find the perfect entry and exit points, consider gradually accumulating on dips and taking profits on the upswing.

No matter what the flock is doing, have a strategy and stick to it. Develop a theory based on fundamentals, technicals, or your assessment of market cycles and let it guide your decisions.

You don’t know what other people’s “prophecies” are based on. Maybe that bull on X shouting about going to $100,000 in a week is a 16 year old who doesn’t even know the funding rate?

FOMO is a powerful force, and the temptation to abandon your plans and chase gains can be strong. This is the importance of discipline.

A big mistake I myself make repeatedly is how to defend losing coins in my portfolio.

Even though I know the smartest thing to do is cut my losses and invest in something else, I still hold them in the hope of getting my money back.

This is human psychology at its best.

No one can seize every opportunity.

I say it again: no one can seize every opportunity.

There will always be coins that have gone up 100x that you didn’t buy, or coins that you sold too early.

This is the nature of the market. The key is to not let FOMO dictate your actions, be disciplined, stick to your strategy, and trust that there will always be new opportunities.

By having a plan, staying disciplined, focusing on your own analysis rather than the herd’s perspective, and maintaining a long-term perspective, you can strive to buy low and sell high instead of the other way around. Come on.

It’s not easy, but this mentality separates the few who succeed from the many who fail.

最终，目标是尽可能地将情绪排除在外。恐惧和贪婪可能是不可避免的人类反应，但我们不必让它们控制我们在市场中的一举一动。

让我们来分解一下：

• 专业性意味着有一个计划并坚持执行，即使情绪高涨。

• 一致性是指每天都应用你的策略，而不仅仅是在容易的时候。

• 纪律是指在 FOMO 来袭或恐惧笼罩市场时抵制偏离计划的冲动。

• 重复是指投入屏幕时间并做功课，即使感觉乏味。

• 也许最重要的是，克服反复失败和失望的能力是必不可少的，因为没有一种策略是完美的，损失是游戏的一部分。

那么，为什么大多数交易者会在这方面挣扎？为什么他们即使知道得更多，还是会在底部看跌，在顶部看涨？

很大一部分原因是很难真正内化这些基本但重要的原则。理解这些概念是一回事，但在关键时刻始终如一地应用它们是另一回事。

那句关于在别人恐惧我贪婪的沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）的名言再次响起。

但在实践中，当街上血流成河，你的投资组合下跌 50% 时，买入是非常困难的。同样，当狂喜统治时，我们知道应该保持谨慎，但当周围的每个人似乎都在轻松致富时，快速获利的诱惑是强大的。

看到像“高中生一夜之间赚了 1,000,000 美元”这样的头条新闻时，怎么能坐得住呢？

这就是为什么制定计划并坚持执行如此重要。如果你的计划是在下跌时积累，那么当价格下跌和情绪看跌时你就买入，无论你感觉如何。

如果你的计划是在达到目标时获利，那么即使感觉涨势可能会永远持续下去，你也要在上涨途中卖出部分。

准确捕捉底部和顶部可能会让自我满足，但这不是建立长期财富的可靠方式。更好的方法是专注于一遍又一遍地执行你的计划，即使这意味着错过一些最好的日子。

缓慢而稳定的方法往往在投资中胜出。

但即使是最好的计划也无法完全消除心理对我们交易的影响。我们是情绪化的生物，我们会犯错误。

关键是从这些错误中吸取教训，重整旗鼓，继续前进。

每个交易者都有糟糕的日子、糟糕的星期，甚至糟糕的月份。那些长期成功的人是那些能够从不可避免的挫折和失望中反弹回来的人。他们是那些即使在困难时也能继续执行策略，能够抵制 FOMO 的诱惑和比职业摔跤手更强的恐惧控制的人。

所以，下次当你发现自己过度看跌或非理性地极度乐观时，请冷静一下。

记住，极端情况下，大众通常是错的。

记住你的计划，以及你为制定它所付出的努力。

纪律是长期成功的关键，每一次挫折都是学习和改进的机会。

保持理性，愿你获得丰厚的回报！

在别人贪婪时要恐惧，在别人恐惧时要贪婪！

保重。

今天就到这里了，朋友们！

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