回复内容:
完全替代在很长一段时间内不会发生,你们见过任何一个强大的平台在短期内被完全替代的吗?但是我认为之前所有答案中的理由都站不住脚。技术上说,HTML5已经可以替代Flash的绝大多数特性。而且从HTML5的发展趋势来看,HTML5将逐渐获得对Flash的优势,所以替代趋势肯定是存在的,但不可能是一夜之间发生的。
HTML5对于游戏开发来说存在的问题主要是几个:
1. 各平台各浏览器对HTML5的支持程度不一,包括特性,包括性能表现等都还存在较大差异。
2. 缺乏普遍认同的高质量游戏开发框架和开发工具,特别是HTML5本身不是为游戏开发而设计的,从产业化的角度看,必须要基于框架和工具,否则难成气候。
3. 缺乏足够多的掌握HTML5的游戏开发人员。
人的因素是最关键的。目前掌握HTML5的大多是前端开发人员,而他们缺乏游戏开发经验。而传统游戏开发者大多用Flash和C++,他们缺乏HTML5的经验。不过这个情况在不断变化,一方面,前端转游戏开发的越来越多,他们可以从较简单的休闲游戏和社交游戏入门,逐渐学习复杂游戏的开发,另一方面,也已经有不少Flash开发者转入了HTML5阵营。所以我相信不久之后HTML5游戏开发这个领域应该会有非常大的发展。
问任何一个HTML5游戏开发者两个问题:
1. 如何解决各种浏览器以及同一浏览器不同版本之间的兼容性(游戏体验完全一致)?
2. 如何解决HTML5游戏发布以后明码的问题(任何人通过缓存就能获取整套HTML5资源以及代码,山寨太容易)? 很难讲,HTML5现在炒概念的成分居多,而且推动者都各自“心怀鬼胎”,真要是HTML5发展到可以威胁到某家拳头产品的地位,联盟就会自动瓦解了。
比如APPLE,如果HTML5可以像Flash一样这么普及,APPLE也要考虑是不是对自己app store有影响,支持力度肯定会有折扣。 可以看看Mozilla 的努力
Mozilla and Epic Preview Unreal Engine 4 Running in Firefox
Mozilla 将 Unreal 引擎移植到Firefox
Mozilla 推出了 asm.js,来编译js使其底层化,大大优化其性能
网页端以后特别是交互多的游戏的发展是激动人心的,当然一切还没有那么快 没有快捷的开发工具和几个成熟的产品作为先驱 推广起来很难。
flash在PC平台还是占了非常大的份额! 感觉还有好多年要修炼,几个图表都在各个浏览器显示不一致,更别说那么多的图片动画在移动碰撞了 就算单考虑安全性,也很艰难。 我觉得几年内都不太可能,虽然现在大家都看好,都支持,但还都停留在概念阶段,只靠W3C去推动是不现实的,而像微软,Adobe这样的大佬都有自家的竞争产品(sliverlight,flash),已经非常成熟,没有道理去扛Html5的大旗,没有市场的推力,又面临很多兼容性等的问题,前景的确不明朗. 复杂的还是要用flash的,比如网页游戏 我们学校有个团队用html5的canvas写了一个游戏,感觉很不错。所以,我觉得以后还是很有可能取代flash的。

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