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首页web3.0:标题:灰度研究主管 Zach Pandl:'比特币将在未来几个月重新测试历史高点”

Zach Pandl 是全球最大的加密资产管理公司 Grayscale Investments 的研究主管。在这次讨论中,他提供了一个重要的观点

:标题:灰度研究主管 Zach Pandl:'比特币将在未来几个月重新测试历史高点”

其次,我认为智能合约平台市场存在逆向观点。大多数人都在关注以太坊第 1 层和第 2 层生态系统中锁定的总价值,并得出结论认为没有竞争对手的空间。我认为那里有一个更微妙的故事。我认为智能合约平台竞争对手是有价值的。他们中的大多数都有自己的设计选择,需要几年的时间才能完全确定哪一个具有最有效的设计来吸引用户、产生费用收入等。但我认为有一些已经确立了自己的坚固、功能良好的设计。它们已经足够成熟并且经过了足够的测试,我们认为这对于投资者来说无疑是一个合理的选择。

最后,我认为对 DeFi 有一种逆向观点。拜登政府正在采取一种方法来监管这个市场。我认为这种方法阻碍了创新和采用。有利有弊,当然,选民选举这些官员采取这种做法。所以我理解这是从哪里来的,但我认为拜登政府对 DeFi 的态度正在阻碍该市场的发展。输出:Grayscale 的研究主管 Zach Pandl 讨论了加密货币、正在出现的增长恐慌,以及为什么比特币的主导地位可能会增加。

全球最大的加密资产管理公司 Grayscale Investments 的研究主管 Zach Pandl 就全年的预期提供了重要观点。他还对八月份发生的市场跳水以及美联储试图取消对经济的限制性姿态是否会再次发生类似的情况提出了一些非常有趣的见解。我们还探讨了他对加密货币的看法,哪些资产有望跑赢大盘,以及为什么其他资产可能会陷入困境。

福布斯:我们来谈谈上个月的情况。一开始,日元套利的平仓和市场恐慌持续了大约一周。随后市场反弹。你如何处理这一切?

Pandl:这是一个动荡的月份,但确实需要分为两个时期。其中一个是7月底到8月5日,这是一个生长恐慌期。然后从8月6日到现在,算是一种恢复。大多数主要资产类别均出现下跌,但其中许多资产的最终价格与本月初的水平大致相同。现在有些东西下降了并且没有完全恢复,包括货币市场的套利交易策略——这是本月初投资者的一大焦点——日本股票和以太坊。

然后,有一些事情在八月初表现良好,然后在本月的下旬继续表现良好。这些是债券市场、整体优质债券,如美国国债和密切相关的资产,以及非美元货币。因此日元、瑞士法郎、欧元和英镑在本月都有上涨。我认为,动荡的八月带来的持久主题是利率下降和美元疲软。我认为这对未来几个月的比特币产生影响。

福布斯:您认为这次恐慌是一次性的还是如果再次受到恐慌,市场会经历类似的情况吗?

Pandl:我首先想说的是,当我们审视 8 月初市场发生的情况时,我强烈地感觉到,对日本和日元事件的关注有点转移注意力。即使对于专业宏观投资者来说,日本也是一个具有挑战性的话题,我认为这往往是造成混乱的根源。我认为真正发生的是真正的成长恐慌。造成这种情况的有几个美国经济数据,但最重要的是8月第一周失业率的上升。美国失业率目前的上升幅度是经济衰退背景下从未出现过的。经济学家将这种现象称为“萨姆规则”,以经济学家克劳迪娅·萨姆的名字命名,后者将这种统计规律称为统计规律。这并不意味着我们一定会陷入衰退,但数据告诉我们,我们正在看到一些与衰退相一致的统计规律,例如收益率曲线倒挂和失业率上升。

Why that had such a big effect on markets is that a soft landing was a very strong consensus prior to this month. There were fears about recession last year, but the economy held up well and so it became an increased consensus and increasingly priced into markets that soft landing was assured. So the rise of the unemployment rate increased the perceived odds of recession again for many investors. It will take a few months of watching the data to ensure that the labor market isn't deteriorating further. That being said, some of the things that happened in markets were surprising, particularly in equity volatility. The VIX index increased to a level associated with really extreme market events in the past like Covid, the 2008 financial crisis and Lehman Brothers bankruptcy. That probably tells us something about market microstructure—the

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