Dovey Wan新文：代币是一种金融化的信仰体系，波动性是最强大的进入市场策略

撰文：Dovey Wan

编译：深潮 TechFlow

代币代表了一种金融化的信念系统，其中代币的波动性是最强大的市场进入策略。许多首次涉足加密货币的创始人采用自下而上、基于里程碑的心态，类似于科技初创公司的创始人，认为只要创造了有意义的价值，价格最终会提升。然而，一个成功的加密项目的增长轨迹通常遵循不同的顺序：

1. 价格引导情感。
2. 情感引导叙事。
3. 叙事引导认知。
4. 认知引导社区。
5. 社区引导采用和协议市场契合（PMF）。

杠铃分布与沉没成本谬误

加密货币体现了金融民粹主义和技术自由主义的交汇点。对于代币的最佳分发策略是「杠铃分布」，即同时瞄准用户的两极——核心用户和边缘用户，从 IQ 150 到 IQ 50。这种方法形成了信念形成过程的上层漏斗。许多创始人试图限制初始代币供应以避免「抛压」，但往往未能实现上层漏斗的增长。首先成功地吸引一端的用户，然后再拓宽杠铃是至关重要的。

在早期，比特币服务于核心用户（密码朋克、矿工和希望避免财富再分配的亿万富翁）或边缘用户（在本地货币体系崩溃的普通人或希望规避制裁或资本管制的人）。早期的 DeFi 也反映了这一模式，最适合加密原生的核心用户（自托管爱好者、希望透明交易的大户、庞大的长尾资产发行）或边缘用户（那些无法良好访问中心化交易所或金融基础设施的人，被「价格上涨」的叙事所驱动）。由于高昂的心理和产品转换成本，大部分中间用户保持冷漠或激励不足。

对于核心用户来说，不采用加密货币的机会成本太高。对于边缘用户来说，机会成本很低，因此他们更可能尝试。

大多数代币经济环境中的「矿工」都是高度雇佣兵性质的，受其沉没成本水平的影响。沉没成本越高，他们越接近核心用户。ASIC 前的比特币矿工很少保留硬币，因为没有实质性的沉没成本需要回收。ASIC 后的矿工保留硬币以覆盖其沉没成本和运营费用。PoS 质押者以资本的机会成本持有硬币。PoS 硬币越不具生产力，就越难建立强大的核心用户基础。锁仓（包括 TVL 锁仓）和空投农场是最糟糕的代币分发形式。这些行为的沉没成本往往是无意义工作的证明，难以评估「成本」，也难以吸引核心用户或边缘用户。

通过波动性实现活跃流通

市场周期中的几轮转手是培养信仰体系的最佳温室，也是检验创始人适应能力和承诺的试金石。在加密货币领域，这些周期明显加快，速度是传统金融的五倍。这种动态就像一个自然选择过程，持有早期代币的热情拥护者会放大信息，并像思想病毒一样传播。这种转变将环境从玩家与玩家（PvP）转变为玩家与环境（PvE）。

这种转变的关键是强有力的领导、兑现承诺的正反馈循环以及与上层漏斗关键成员的健康互动。这有效地在加密领域内转换了漏斗。某些领域，如 meme 和 NFT，要求更高强度的关注和心理敏捷度，其速度比已经加速的加密周期快五倍，总体速度达到 25 倍。

对于 meme 币创始人来说，这是一场命中率极低的统计游戏，类似于疯狂旋转的轮盘。meme 币在金融民粹主义历史上发挥了作用：它们不是金融虚无主义的产物，而是金融荒诞主义和民粹主义运动。加缪在 100 年前就大声说出了这一点。文化流动性、身份危机、传统主义和现代自由主义的双重死亡，所有这些都导致了现代自闭症猴子意义上的巨大空虚。从消费主义到互联网部落主义，趋势、叙事和产品不断涌现，以填补这一空虚。

Thus, the consistency of narrative and identity within each coin now serves as a new means of expressing meaning and connecting with like-minded people - just like the often introverted and unsociable foster cats of the dawn of the internet. People have finally found an outlet to post photos of their beloved cats. Meme coins are different from big corporate or venture capital coins, which may adhere to some grand vision and brand legitimacy, but meme coins provide a place for everyone who doesn’t care about “what is long-term significance.” Only the most absurd, short-lived, yet most intense dopamine rush can keep this group of warriors who have no other war to fight (but who must unleash the power of their ADHD somewhere). This is a great PMF in cryptocurrencies and is perfect for a corruption-centric culture.

This environment is characterized by the most extreme survivor bias and power laws, and users and traders are inherently fickle. This is why most tokens only have a 1-3 month lifespan in terms of liquidity and volatility, with very few able to remain relevant beyond a cycle. When there is no liquidity, the token dies. Information is entropy and attention is currency. Liquidity is the HRV of a token.

Let Diamond Hands Get Rich

Give generous rewards to early loyalists and build a motivation-driven system to reinforce commitment in this belief system funnel. Imagine a pyramid, the width of the base determines its height; the diamond hands form the base base, determining the height of the FDV. Price will always dominate the narrative.

Failure to make the Diamond Hand rich will naturally invalidate this Conviction Funnel conversion path, and it will then become PvP instead of PvE. Rewards go beyond financial gains; they also serve as status recognition and boost self-esteem. As a token community rooted in a belief system, you can provide social and psychological value by fostering a sense of shared identity among holders. The decline of traditionalism and modern liberalism has left a huge void for today’s keyboard apes. Trends, narratives, and tokens have emerged to fill this void, providing people with a sense of purpose and connection: Just like in the early days of the internet, typically introverted and unsociable cat owners finally found a way to post photos of their cats. channel.

Diamond hands exist not only for the wealth effect, but also for the alignment of culture and beliefs. Wealthy diamond hands will further enhance the overall cultural impact of the token, strengthening the belief system and making it more self-fulfilling.

Ultimately, tokens represent a financialized belief system in which market dynamics, human nature, and psychological biases are not only obstacles to overcome, but fundamental components to growth and adoption. Understanding and leveraging this belief system is critical to navigating and succeeding in the crypto ecosystem. I'm always looking for founders who have both solid technical skills and a deep understanding of human nature. Cryptocurrency entrepreneurship is a process that requires a full grasp of the rules of the capital market game, cultural development, and technological progress.

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