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首頁網路3.0聯準會降息押注降溫影響比特幣需求
聯準會降息押注降溫影響比特幣需求Oct 24, 2024 pm 04:12 PM
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週三,那斯達克指數下跌 1.60%,反映出對聯準會利率路徑的擔憂。

聯準會降息押注降溫影響比特幣需求

由於對聯準會利率走勢的擔憂加劇,那斯達克指數週三下跌 1.60%。美國10年期公債殖利率攀升至周中高點4.260%,創7月以來最高。近期美國經濟指標持續顯示經濟具有彈性,這對投資者對 2024 年第四季聯準會多次降息的押注構成挑戰。

即將到來的美國總統選舉增加了市場的不確定性。最新民調顯示,卡馬拉·哈里斯領先唐納德·川普1.8個百分點,儘管川普已成功縮小先前3.7個百分點的差距。儘管哈里斯在民調中領先,但博彩平台 Polymarket 認為川普獲勝的幾率為 61.1%,而哈里斯的獲勝幾率為 39.0%。

市場預期川普擔任總統將導致通膨上升,可能導緻聯準會採取更鷹派的利率路徑。聯準會更加鷹派的利率路徑可能會影響對風險資產的需求。然而,從長遠來看,川普提出的加密貨幣政策目標可能會增強 BTC 需求,可能會超過聯準會更加鷹派利率路徑的影響。

川普除了承諾在上任第一天解僱 SEC 主席 Gensler 之外,還計劃將 BTC 納入美國戰略儲備。美國政府對 BTC 立場的轉變可能會顯著改變對 BTC 有利的供需平衡,並降低供應過剩的風險。

美國政府目前持有 203,239 BTC,如果成為 BTC 持有者,其數量可能會大幅增加。

美國BTC現貨ETF市場出現資金流出

10 月 22 日星期二,美國 BTC 現貨 ETF 市場淨流出總額為 7,910 萬美元,標誌著連續 7 天的流入結束。週三,美國BTC現貨ETF市場連續第二天面臨淨流出。根據 Farside 投資者的說法:

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