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首頁網路3.0以太坊(ETH)將在美國大選前後經歷異常波動
以太坊(ETH)將在美國大選前後經歷異常波動Oct 05, 2024 am 03:44 AM
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與被認為相對穩定的避風港的比特幣(BTC)不同,ETH 因其與去中心化金融(DeFi)生態系統的緊密聯繫而受到越來越多的關注。

以太坊(ETH)將在美國大選前後經歷異常波動

隨著 11 月 5 日美國總統大選臨近,加密貨幣市場正準備面臨一段高波動期,其中以太幣 (ETH) 處於最前沿。與被認為相對穩定的避風港的比特幣(BTC)不同,ETH 由於與去中心化金融(DeFi)生態系統的密切聯繫而受到越來越多的關注。當投資人關注支持加密貨幣或反加密貨幣候選人當選後可能出現的潛在監管規定時,他們預測價格將出現極端波動。

美國大選前後以太坊預計將出現波動高峰

以太幣目前的價值為 2,372 美元,在美國大選之前和之後的幾天裡將經歷異常波動。交易員預計,從 2024 年 10 月 25 日(即選舉截止日期)開始,波動性將會加劇。預計選舉後三天內 ETH 價格將在 -14% 到 16% 之間波動,機率為 68%。交易員也估計,波動範圍有 95% 的可能性會更大,變化範圍為 -26% 到 35%。

這種預期主要與對 DeFi 領域潛在監管的擔憂有關,在該領域,以太坊作為智能合約和其他去中心化應用程式的首選平台發揮關鍵作用。 DeFi 的本質使 ETH 更容易受到政治決策的影響,特別是如果對區塊鏈創新懷有敵意的候選人贏得選舉。

比特幣,宏觀經濟風暴下的避風港

雖然以太幣在監管威脅下波動,但比特幣將自己定位為更穩定的資產,對宏觀經濟事件較不敏感。因此,交易者似乎對比特幣抵禦這些動盪的能力更有信心。作為一種“數位價值儲存手段”,比特幣享有更強大的地位,較少直接受到選舉可能出現的監管問題的影響。 BTC 目前的價值為 61,048 美元,也在經​​歷波動,但水準低於 ETH。此外,其未來波動性預計為 69.8%,而以太坊為 76.6%。

事實上,比特幣作為「價值儲存」的地位限制了其直接面臨政治不確定性的風險,使其能夠在不穩定時期充當避險資產。此外,與以太幣相比,比特幣生態系統對去中心化應用的依賴程度較低,因此它能夠更好地抵抗選舉動盪。

隨著美國總統大選的臨近,加密貨幣投資者必須為重大的市場波動做好準備,尤其是以太幣,它可能會根據選舉結果發生重大變化。另一方面,比特幣可能在這種不確定的環境中提供相對穩定性。

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