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首頁網路3.0比特幣(BTC)累積趨勢接近0,意味著參與者的分佈和累積減弱

在過去的幾個月裡,比特幣(BTC)的價格圖表出現了一些極端的波動。 2024 年,BTC 創下了 7.3 萬美元的歷史新高,市場青睞度也更高

比特幣(BTC)累積趨勢接近0,意味著參與者的分佈和累積減弱

過去幾個月,比特幣價格在價格圖表上出現了一些極端波動。雖然 2024 年 BTC 創下了 7.3 萬美元的歷史新高,並且自 ETF 推出以來市場青睞度更高,但波動性也更高。

在撰寫本文時,BTC 交易價格為 54,239 美元,過去一週下跌 8.42%。然而,隨著最近交易量的增加,它仍然顯示出一些生命力的跡象。事實上,過去 24 小時內這一數字飆升了 63.13% 至 486 億美元。這對 BTC 的短期和長期市場前景意味著什麼?比特幣現在可以完全恢復嗎?

嗯,根據流行的加密貨幣分析師 Ali Martinez 的建議,BTC 的參與度可能會減少。他以累積趨勢分數下降為由做出這一斷言。

比特幣累積趨勢分數接近0

根據Martinez的說法,目前累積趨勢分數已接近0。這意味著市場參與者要么正在分配,要么不累積比特幣。

在上下文中,累積趨勢得分反映了在鏈上積極累積代幣的實體在 BTC 持有量方面的相對規模。接近 1 的值表示參與者正在累積代幣。接近 0 的值表示參與者正在分配其持有的資產。

因此,當累積趨勢分數閃爍為0時,表示任何佇列中都沒有買家,並且意味著分配。每當比特幣在熊市週期中觸及低點時,隨著投資者逢低買入,其累積量就會增加。但熊市週期持續後,就會出現缺乏累積的情況,因為對週期缺乏信心。

根據此分析,2024年8月底至9月初,累積分數接近0。這意味著參與者之間的分配更大,累積減弱。這種情況表明較大的參與者和長期持有者不會購買——這表明看跌情緒。

這也顯示投資人對近期反彈缺乏信心。這些市場狀況導致拋售壓力,導致圖表上的價格下跌。

比特幣 SOPR,交易所淨流量暗示看跌情境

現在,雖然馬丁內斯強調的指標提供了當前市場情緒的詳細前景,但更廣泛的市場確實首當其沖地受到了近期復甦的影響。

首先,比特幣的大持有者 SOPR 在過去 7 天內從 2.4 下降至 1.6。這表明,雖然長期持有者在獲利拋售,但獲利規模正在縮小。因此,交易者正在虧本出售,因為他們對該資產的中短期前景越來越缺乏信心。

這種情況似乎也顯示出投資人對未來的價格上漲感到悲觀,他們正在為進一步的看跌情況做準備。

此外,比特幣的交易淨流量在過去 7 天中保持相對積極的狀態。在 7 天中,有 4 天出現了正的外匯淨流量——這表明更多的投資者正準備平倉。在這裡,流入交易所的資金增加如果導致拋售,則可能會導致分配。

綜合以上因素,可以預測,如果拋售壓力持續存在,BTC將面臨跌破5萬美元的風險。

以上是比特幣(BTC)累積趨勢接近0,意味著參與者的分佈和累積減弱的詳細內容。更多資訊請關注PHP中文網其他相關文章!

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