ETH要起飛了嗎？

撰文：FLOW

翻譯：白話區塊鏈

自從這輪牛市開始以來，以太坊在價格表現上相當令人失望。雖然比特幣成功突破了歷史最高點，從週期低點以來上漲超過 350%，但以太坊則顯得有些落後。其價格行動較為緩慢，缺乏明確的催化劑，在比特幣價格飆升時的反應相對較弱。

然而，最近，似乎我們已經見證了市場情緒的轉變。現在，每個人都在思考的問題是：以太坊終於要展現光芒的時候到了嗎？

在今天的討論中，我們將深入探討這個至關重要的問題。

但請記住，沒有人能預測未來。因此，接下來的內容只是一些想法，而且想法在加密貨幣領域特別容易改變。正如交易專家彼得·布蘭特完美地表達的，「堅定的觀點，但態度要謙虛」。

有了這樣的理念，讓我們深入探討。

1、網路目前的狀態非常有潛力

為了透徹分析以太坊（ETH）的潛力，首先需要分析目前以太坊區塊鏈的現況。從宏觀角度來看，這些因素使得 ETH 具有價值並吸引投資者。

1）總鎖定價值（TVL）

在上一個熊市期間，總鎖定價值（TVL）顯著下降後，以太坊區塊鏈的活動明顯重啟。過去一年，TVL 上升了約 200%。雖然仍有一些提升空間需要達到歷史最高水平，但上升趨勢顯而易見。

在過去兩年中，活躍地址表現出了很強的韌性，即使在熊市的最低點，也從未低於 30 萬個。這顯示以太坊已經超越了最初的炒作階段，成為一條經受時間考驗的成熟區塊鏈。

2）價值流動

價值流動，即持有者和質押者的收入衡量指標，在過去滾動年度也有所增長。

3）核心開發者

核心開發者是一個重要的指標，因為最終是開發者們建構了區塊鏈的未來。以超過 440 名全職開發者，以太坊在開發活躍度上居於前列，這一數字仍在上升趨勢，這意味著以太坊對開發者仍然非常有吸引力。

2、一些催化劑

除了健康成長的鏈上指標之外，以太坊還有許多即將到來的催化劑。以下是一些重要的催化劑清單：

1）未來推出的現貨 ETF

毫無疑問，這是以太坊最重要的催化劑之一。以太坊 ETF 的意外批准強化了加密貨幣作為一種已建立的資產類別的價值主張，並將為以太坊創造新的需求浪潮。鑑於現貨比特幣 ETF 的成功，我們有充分的理由感到興奮。

雖然很難準確估計流入以太坊 ETF 的潛在資金量，但我們可以根據各種專家的預測來得出一系列預期值。這給出了第一年淨流入的不同潛在情景，範圍從 13.9 億美元到 69.3 億美元不等。

2）下一步是估計這些潛在資金流入對以太坊的價格影響

同樣，沒有簡單的方法來做到這一點，但一種選擇是基於最近現貨比特幣ETF 的情況進行一些假設，並針對以太坊進行調整，原因如下：

比特幣的流通市值目前約為以太坊的3.15 倍。大約 27% 的以太坊被質押，這意味著可供買賣的流通量較少，而爆炸性的價格行為可能更多。自與合併（The Merge）以來，以太坊的供應總體上呈現貶值趨勢（-0.184%）。

因此，一個合理的假設是以太坊的反應性是比特幣的四倍，這意味著對於相同的資金流入，以太坊的價格會比比特幣變動四倍。

基於這一切，我們可以得出不同的預估，關於到 2024 年底以太坊的價格表現。

3、監管的明確性

除了潛在的新需求來源外，現貨 ETF 的批准還為以太坊（一種商品）的地位帶來了急需的明確性。我們都知道，市場通常喜歡明晰的規則，因此解決加密貨幣周圍的監管問題越多，越好。

1）Dencun 升級

這次最近的升級對以太坊非常重要。它帶來了幾項技術改進，鞏固了以太坊的基礎設施，但其中一個主要特點是透過增強數據可用性，大幅降低了二層網路的交易費用。這是將以太坊建立為可擴展的結算層的關鍵舉措。

2）美國總統選舉

Cryptocurrency has become an important topic in the upcoming election. On the one hand, current presidential candidate Donald Trump has made clear his support for cryptocurrencies. If elected, this could be a positive catalyst for cryptocurrency adoption, benefiting Ethereum. The Biden administration, on the other hand, has been less clear on the issue but has shown some signs of easing. Overall, the outlook is bullish.

4. Ethereum supply is limited

In the final analysis, supply and demand are the only two variables that affect price. Now we are faced with a situation where, in addition to the various potential incremental demands explained earlier, the supply of Ethereum is also constrained. This is evidenced by the deflation of Ethereum supply since the merger.

Additionally, the proportion of Ethereum staked has reached an all-time high and continues to grow. This means there is less supply available to buy and trade on exchanges, which also means the market requires less demand to move the price, so there is more potential for explosive price action.

5. Price Action

In addition to the various catalysts mentioned earlier, the current situation in Ethereum is also very interesting.

Looking back, we can observe that after bottoming in June 2022, Ethereum traded sideways for almost a year and a half before breaking out into the first leg of the bull market. Ethereum has now formed a consolidation pattern near past highs that has lasted for over four months, and we are currently at some key resistance levels with the greatest level of fear present on the timeline. This could provide potentially good buying opportunities from a mid- to long-term perspective.

The current ETH/BTC chart is also close to a key turning point. BTC has dominated the long-term downtrend, but ETH/BTC has recently rebounded from multi-year lows and is showing strong momentum. If this momentum holds and ETH/BTC breaks out of the descending channel, we can expect ETH to attract a lot of market attention.

Last but not least, now seems like the right time to start Memecoin season. So far, this bull run has been driven primarily by Bitcoin, with a few exceptions. Currently, Memecoin is performing near all-time lows compared to Bitcoin. However, we expect this trend to reverse at some point as investors shift their focus from Bitcoin to Memecoin. This potential market rotation is consistent with our current bullish bias for ETH.

6. Negative Effects

As with all things in life, it is important to maintain a critical eye. Therefore, when analyzing Ethereum’s global prospects, also be aware of potential shortcomings that could negatively impact Ethereum:

• Global Market Performance: Ethereum is very sensitive to overall market sentiment. If the overall trend across the cryptocurrency market is downward, Ethereum is unlikely to perform well. While this isn't the scenario we expected, it's still worth noting.
• ETF Expectations: Negative surprises on the ETF front, such as net inflows and poor interest generated, could have a negative impact on Ethereum in the short term.

The traditional financial community has a harder time understanding Ethereum than Bitcoin: When the spot Bitcoin ETF was launched, Bitcoin was promoted as digital gold, and it was easy for the traditional financial community to understand this narrative. But the situation is different for Ethereum, where there is no clear consensus on its value proposition. Some see Ethereum as a global computer, some see it as a Web3 app store or a decentralized financial settlement layer, and so on. Confusion over what Ethereum really is may make it more difficult for the traditional financial community to allocate Ethereum in their portfolios.

Ethereum vs. Next-Generation Blockchains: Ethereum has been widely criticized for being slower and more expensive, especially compared to newer blockchains. In this regard, there are two views. On one hand, some believe that this will lead to the slow death of Ethereum, while others believe that this is not a problem because it will serve as a settlement layer for other layers to build and create scalable infrastructure. No matter which side of the debate you're on, it's important to keep an open mind.

7. Summary

In the early stages of this bull market, Ethereum initially lagged behind, but currently it appears to be at an interesting moment.

The current state of its blockchain is exciting and solidifies its development as a mature L1 blockchain that will stand the test of time. Additionally, Ethereum has several bullish catalysts on the demand and supply side, and current price action is consistent with these factors.

However, as is always the case, things are rarely black and white, so it is important to remain aware of potential shortcomings that could negatively impact Ethereum.

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