Andrew Kang 新文：為什麼我認為以太坊無法複製比特幣 ETF 的成功？

原文標題：《The Impact of the Ethereum ETF ETF - An analysis》

作者：Andrew BTC ETF為許多新買家打開了在其投資組合中配置比特幣的大門。 ETH ETF 的影響則較不明顯。

在 Blackrock ETF 申請提交時，比特幣的價格為 2.5 萬美元，我當時大力看好比特幣，現在比特幣的回報率已經達到 2.6 倍，而 ETH 的回報率為 2.1 倍。從週期底部算起，BTC 的回報率為 4.0 倍，ETH 的回報率同樣為 4.0 倍。那麼，ETH ETF 能帶來多大的上漲空間呢？我認為不會太大，除非以太坊開發出令人信服的途徑來提高其經濟效益。

（詳見推文）

流量分析

比特幣 ETF 流量分析

比特幣 ETF 尺寸累積了 500 億美元的資產。然而，如果將比特幣 ETF 推出以來的淨流入額進行細分，剔除已有的 GBTC 資產管理規模和輪換，則淨流入額為 145 億美元。然而，這並不是真正的資金流入，因為有許多 delta 中性資金流需要計算在內，即基礎交易（賣出期貨，買入現貨 ETF）和現貨輪換。根據 CME 數據和對 ETF 持有者的分析，我估計大約有 45 億美元的淨流入可歸因於基差交易。 ETF 專家建議，BlockOne 等大型持有者也將大量現貨 BTC 轉換為 ETF - 粗略估計為 50 億美元。扣除這些資金流，我們可以得出比特幣 ETF 的真實淨買入額為 50 億美元。

從這裡我們可以簡單地推斷出以太坊。 @EricBalchunas估計，以太坊的流量可能是 BTC 的 10%。這使得 6 個月內真正的淨購買流量為 5 億美元，而報告的淨流量為 15 億美元。儘管 Balchunas 在批准賠率上有偏差，但我相信他對 ETH ETF 缺乏興趣/悲觀的態度是有參考價值的，也反映了更廣泛的傳統金融的興趣。

就我個人而言，我的基準是 15%。從 BTC 的 50 億美元真實淨值開始，根據 ETH 市值（佔 BTC 的 33%）和 0.5 的訪問係數*進行調整，我們得出 8.4 億美元的真實淨買入和 25.2 億美元的報告淨值。有一些合理的觀點認為，ETHE 的過手量比 GBTC 少，因此樂觀的情況下，我認為真實淨買入量為 15 億美元，報告淨買入量為 45 億美元。這大約是 BTC 流量的 30%。

無論哪種情況，真實的淨買入額都遠低於 ETF 前端的衍生性商品流量（28 億美元），這還不包括現貨前端流量。這意味著 ETF 的定價已經超過了實際價格。

*The access factor adjusts the flow to the ETF as the ETF could benefit BTC significantly more than ETH due to a different holder base. For example, BTC is a macro asset that is more attractive to institutions with access issues - macro funds, pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds. ETH is more of a technical asset, attractive to venture capital firms, Crpyto funds, technical experts, retail investors and other people who do not have so many restrictions on exposure to cryptocurrencies. By comparing the CME OI to market cap ratio of ETH to BTC, 50% can be derived.

Judging from CME data, before the launch of the ETF, ETH’s OI was significantly less than BTC. OI accounts for approximately 0.30% of supply, while BTC accounts for 0.6% of supply. At first, I thought this was a sign of "prematurity," but it could also be argued that it was masking a lack of interest from smart trading money in the ETH ETF. A trader on the street made a good trade on BTC and they tend to have good information, so if they don't repeat the trade on ETH there must be a good reason, which could mean weak liquidity intelligence .

How did $5 billion bring BTC from $40,000 to $65,000?

The short answer is no. There are many other buyers in the spot market. Bitcoin is a truly globally proven asset, an important portfolio asset, and has many structural accumulators - Saylor, Tether, family offices, high net worth retail investors, etc. ETH also has some structural accumulators, but I think there are fewer than BTC.

Remember, before ETFs came along, Bitcoin holdings were already at $69k/1.2T+ BTC. Market participants/institutions own large amounts of spot cryptocurrencies. Coinbase has $193 billion in custody volume, $100 billion of which comes from its institutional program. In 2021, Bitgo reported an AUC of $60 billion and Binance had over $100 billion in custody. 6 months later, ETFs hold 4% of total Bitcoin supply, which makes sense, but is only part of the demand equation.

(see tweet for details)

Between MSTR and Tether, there have been billions of dollars in additional buying, but more than that, insufficient positions going into the ETFs. There was a popular belief at the time that ETFs were selling news events/market tops. So billions short, medium and long term momentum sold, needed to be bought back (2x flow impact). Additionally, shorts will also need to buy back once there is a big swing in ETF flows. Going into the release phase, open interest actually dropped -- that's incredible.

The positioning of the ETH ETF is completely different. ETH is trading at 4x its lows, while BTC is trading at 2.75x its pre-launch price. Crypto native CEX OI increased by $2.1 billion, bringing OI close to ATH levels. Markets are (semi-) efficient. Of course, many cryptocurrency natives saw the success of the Bitcoin ETF, had the same expectations for ETH, and positioned themselves accordingly.

I personally believe that the expectations of cryptocurrency natives are exaggerated and disconnected from the true preferences of transaction allocators. People who are deeply involved in the field of cryptocurrency will naturally have relatively high awareness and purchasing power of Ethereum. In fact, Ethereum, which serves as a major portfolio allocation for many non-crypto native capitals, has a much lower purchase rate.

One of the most common promotions to traders is Ethereum as a "tech asset". Global computer, Web3 application store, decentralized financial settlement layer, etc. It's a good pitch and I've bought it in previous cycles, but it's a hard sell when you see the actual numbers.

In the last cycle, you can point out the growth rate of handling fees, point out that DeFi and NFTs will create more handling fees and cash flow, etc., and make a convincing case from a perspective similar to technology stocks technology investment cases. But in this cycle, the quantification of fees can backfire. Most charts will show you flat or negative growth. Ethereum is a "cash machine", but its 30d annualized revenue is US$1.5 billion, its PS ratio is 300 times, and its post-inflation earnings/PE ratio is negative. How can analysts tell their dad's family office or Their macro fund bosses justifying that price?

I even expected the first few weeks of fugazi (delta neutral) traffic to be lower for two reasons. First, the approval was a surprise and issuers didn’t have that much time to convince large holders to convert their ETH into ETF form. The second reason is that switching is less attractive for holders because they would need to give up the benefits of marking to market, farming, or leveraging ETH as collateral in DeFi. But please note that the staking ratio is only 25.

Does this mean ETH will go to zero? Of course not, at a certain price it will be considered good value for money and when BTC rises in the future it will also be dragged down to a certain extent. Before the ETF launch, I expected ETH to trade between $3,000 and $3,800. When the ETF launches, my expectation is $2,400 to $3,000. However, if BTC rises to $100,000 by the end of Q4/Q1 of 2025, then this could drag ETH to ATH, but the ETHBTC trading pair would be lower. Long term the development is promising and you have to believe that Blackrock/Fink are doing a lot of work putting some of the financial trajectories on the blockchain and tokenizing more assets. How much value this will bring to ETH, and what the timing will be, is currently uncertain.

I expect the ETHBTC trading pair to continue falling and will be between 0.035 and 0.06 next year. Although our sample size is small, we do see ETHBTC making lower highs every cycle, so this is not surprising.

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