ビットコインクジラとスポットETFが市場混乱を引き起こす、5万7000ドルの回収は困難に見える

デリバティブ指標が熱意の欠如を示しているため、ビットコインの価格修正は世界的な経済状況によるものではなく、市場固有の要因によるものです。

伝統的な金融市場の好調な勢いにもかかわらず、ビットコイン（BTC）価格は8月7日時点で57,000ドルを超える水準を維持できませんでした。

8月7日、ユーロネクスト100指数は2.2%上昇し、原油価格は2.8%上昇しました。しかし、ビットコインの価格は0.8%のわずかな上昇でほぼ横ばいでした。

これは、ビットコインの価格修正は世界的な経済状況によるものではなく、デリバティブやオンチェーン指標などの市場固有の要因によるものであることを示唆しています。

一部のアナリストは、クジラが長期間蓄積した後にポジションを減らしている可能性があり、それがビットコインの価格変動に影響を与えている可能性があると考えています。

Bitcoinator からのデータは、アドレスが「Mr. 100”は、6日間で3,390 BTCを蓄積した後、8月6日に73,067.66 BTCのピーク残高に達しました。

しかし、8月7日、このアドレスから合計5,952.59 BTCの2回の出金が発生しました。 Arkham Intelligence などの一部のブロックチェーン分析会社は、このアドレスが韓国の取引所 Upbit のものであると信じていますが、これは未確認です。

Outflows from Mr. 100 have triggered alerts because the last three outflows coincided with local tops.

For example, around 2,020 BTC was withdrawn between July 25 and July 27, when Bitcoin’s price approached $67,500. Similarly, 1,000 BTC was withdrawn on May 22 near Bitcoin’s $70,000 local top. Prior to that, on March 9, another 1,010 BTC was sent while the BTC price was $68,500.

These movements suggest that the outflows on Aug. 7 could indicate a shift in strategy or that $57,000 might be a local top.

Additionally, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States experienced net outflows of $554 million between Aug. 2 and Aug. 6, affecting funds beyond just Grayscale’s GBTC.

Thus, even if onchain metrics show whales accumulating below $60,000, investor sentiment, influenced by entities considered “smart money” with a history of accurate market timing, remains cautious.

To gauge whether Bitcoin’s recent price weakness might persist, one should examine derivatives metrics and stablecoin demand.

Retail traders often use perpetual futures, a derivative that tracks spot market prices closely. Exchanges balance risk exposure with an eight-hourly fee known as the funding rate, which becomes positive when buyers demand more leverage and negative when sellers need additional leverage.

Bitcoin’s funding rate has remained below 0.01% for the past couple of weeks, which is equivalent to 0.9% per month, indicating neutral markets.

Notably, brief periods of negative funding rates were short-lived, suggesting bears are not confident in selling below $60,000.

Options data further confirms the increased temporary demand for downside protection. The put-to-call volume ratio at Deribit neared 1, reflecting balanced demand between call (buy) and put (sell) options.

Historically, call options volume is much higher, but the unusual demand for put options caused this shift between Aug. 5 and Aug. 6.

Lastly, examining stablecoin demand in China provides additional insights. Typically, high retail demand for cryptocurrencies causes stablecoins to trade at a premium of 2% or more above the official US dollar rate. Conversely, a discount usually signals fear, with traders eager to exit crypto markets.

On Aug. 7, the premium for China’s USDC Coin ( USDC ) stablecoin dropped to 1%, indicating low buying demand. This is a significant shift from Aug. 5 and Aug. 6, when traders paid a 4% premium, likely defending their positions and seizing opportunities following the price crash.

In summary, Bitcoin’s path to reclaiming the $57,000 support is challenging, as BTC derivatives metrics and stablecoin demand in China reflect declining confidence.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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