Looking back at the historical rise and fall of Bitcoin’s three halvings: it may rise above $160,000 after August 2025

The Bitcoin halving will take place two days later (4/20). This is the fourth halving in the history of Bitcoin. Veterans in the currency circle may have become accustomed to the halving event. But for many investors who entered the industry after the NFT and meme craze, this is their first experience. This article will sort out the previous halvings of Bitcoin for readers and predict its performance after this halving.

Looking back at the three Bitcoin halvings in the past

Before analyzing the data, let’s first look at the time and price of each Bitcoin halving. Bitcoin halving occurs every four years. Specifically, The information is as follows:

• The first halving occurred on November 28, 2012. After the halving, the block reward was 25 coins. The price of Bitcoin on the day of the halving was US$12

• The second halving occurred on July 9, 2016. After the halving, the block reward was 12.5 coins. The price of Bitcoin on the day of the halving was $650

• The third halving on May 12, 2020, the block reward after the halving was 6.25, and the price of Bitcoin on the day of the halving was US$8,626

At the same time, we sorted out Bitcoin’s post-halving high, the increase from the day of the halving to the post-halving high, and the number of days it took from the day of the halving to the Bitcoin price high:

• First After the second halving, Bitcoin's high was $1,135, an increase of 9358%. It took 371 days from the day of the halving to the high.

• After the second halving, Bitcoin's high It was US$19,640, an increase of 2921%, and it took 525 days from the day of the halving to the high point

• After the third halving, the high of Bitcoin was US$69,045, an increase of 700%. It took 545 days from the day of the halving to the high point

Referring to the past three halvings, it is predicted that the high point of Bitcoin will exceed 160,000 US dollars

From the historical record, Bitcoin The price increase range from the current day to the high point during the three times of coin reduction ranged from 700% to 9358%, with an average increase of 4326%. The range of days spent was between 371 days and 545 days, with the average number of days spent being 480 days.

If the fourth halving market plays out as expected, based on the above average number of days, the highest point of Bitcoin after the halving may fall around August 13, 2025.

The price of Bitcoin is judged based on the gradual decrease of price increases in the previous three times. After the fourth halving, the increase to the high point will most likely not exceed 700% of the previous time. If we refer to the increases in the previous three times, Bitcoin’s high after its fourth halving will reach $162,946.

The bull market may not necessarily arrive as planned

However, the high point after the halving may not necessarily arrive as expected, and external factors will also lead to changes in plans, such as the recent Middle East war and the U.S. It is expected that there will be no interest rate cuts in the short term.

In addition, from the US Federal Reserve interest rate chart, the current interest rate (5.5%) is the highest since the birth of Bitcoin, far exceeding the interest rates during the previous three halvings (0.25, 0.5, 0.25) . Therefore, in the time and space context of high interest rates, Bitcoin’s bull run may be delayed.

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