Will AI threaten 8 million British jobs? IPPR: Can’t just benefit tech giants

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) recently pointed out in a report that 8 million jobs in the UK will be threatened due to the popularity of AI.

However, reports show that, although only at the worst level, through government intervention and concentrated supervision, AI can stimulate economic growth and make existing jobs more powerful.

This concept will be very critical in the next few years. If the government can formulate reasonable policies, AI will bring GPD growth. If it is not reasonable, a large number of jobs will disappear.

AI impact is carried out in two stages

IPPR believes that generating an AI will be divided into two stages when it is popularized. The first phase is what is happening now, marked by the rise of generative AI platforms, such as GPT-4. In the second phase, companies will integrate generative AI technology into their own workflows.

A report analyzes 22,000 tasks that exist in the UK economy. Jobs most affected by generative AI and automation technologies include database management, organizational and strategic work, secretarial, customer service and administrative roles. Secretarial, customer service and administrative jobs are more likely to be held by women, making them more susceptible. Some entry-level jobs will also take a hit.

According to analysis, 11% of the 22,000 tasks will receive the first wave of impact, and this impact is happening. When the second wave of impact occurs, the proportion will rise to 59%. Work such as creation and database management will be affected, and some high-paying positions will not be immune to the epidemic.

According to IPPR senior researcher Bhargav Srinivasa Desikan: "Positions such as writers, graphic designers, personal assistants, etc. will be seriously affected. How to harness technological changes to create new job opportunities and improve productivity? Benefiting everyone is the key."

When the first wave of shocks occurs, the worst-case scenario is that 1.5 million jobs will be replaced and GDP will not grow at all. The middle scenario is that 545,000 jobs are lost and GDP grows by 3.1%. The best case scenario is that 150 jobs nationwide are retained, AI enhances jobs, and GDP grows by 4%.

Three situations may occur when the second wave of impact arrives. In the first type, 7.9 million people are unemployed, their jobs are completely replaced, and there is no GDP gain. The middle situation is relatively better, with half of the 7.9 million jobs replaced by AI, but GDP grew by 6.3%. The best-case scenario is that all jobs are enhanced by AI and not replaced, and GDP grows by 13%.

The model shows that the process of AI popularization is full of variables and the results cannot be guaranteed, so the government needs to intervene to prevent jobs from being replaced on a large scale.

IPPR believes that the government should formulate an "employment-centered industrial strategy" to encourage job transition, prevent jobs from being replaced, and ensure that automation technology brings benefits rather than harm to the economy. It is important to ensure that all workers benefit from AI technology, not just large technology companies.

There are different controversies over the impact of AI

If one day AI is really powerful enough and is better than humans at any job, will there be any positions left for humans? Noah Smith, who studies economics, believes: "In the new era dominated by AI, humans may still have enough high-paying jobs, and the work they will do by then will be similar to what they do now."

Many people do not agree Economists are generally pessimistic about the above views, and Noah Smith is one of the few optimists.

There is a popular concept in economics called "comparative advantage". For example, suppose there is a woman named Lili who is good at ironing clothes and ranks first in the world. She is still likely to let other people iron her clothes because she wants to leave her time to do other things she is better at, such as making movies. .

Entering the AI ​​era, suppose that AI is 100 times better than humans when doing thing A, and 2 times better than humans when doing thing B. In order to pursue the greatest interests, the AI ​​owner will let the AI ​​do thing A, and so on. Human beings will have their place in the future and will not be abandoned. Even if AI becomes cheaper one day, the theory of comparative advantage will still be valid. As long as AI computing power remains a scarce resource, owners will let AI do the things with the highest returns.

Some economists disagree. Once upon a time, humans relied on horses to transport goods, but since the invention of trucks, horses have been completely eliminated, even though horses have some comparative advantages. MIT economist David Autor also said that hiring people for labor is costly. When AI is super cheap, people will become a drag and reduce competitiveness.

However, David Autor does not believe that robots and AI will become better than humans. If AI really surpasses humans, it will become too expensive to hire humans to work.

Another MIT economist Daron Acemoglu is optimistic about the future. He believes that humans can still find jobs in the labor market. In the next 10 years, the proportion of jobs affected by AI and computer vision technology will not exceed 10%, it is unlikely that AI will surpass humans in all fields in the future.

Are humans and AI destined to have entanglements?

In the face of AI, what humans are most proud of may be creativity. Unfortunately, AI is better at some tasks that require creativity. If AI's creativity is truly recognized, humans will be forced to do the drudgery.

When that day comes, energy will become critical. In order to protect human workers, will the government limit the energy usage of data centers? This is worth thinking about.

With the development of AI, it is still possible for humans to participate in work, but with the same time invested, the value created by humans will become less and less. Although comparative advantage does exist in the economy, if AI gets better and cheaper, it will be inevitable to replace human workers.

Humans can still work with AI, but at most they will only save some computing resources. In order to solve a certain problem, humans invest one hour and let AI save one second. It can use this second to do other things and create greater value. In this case, the AI ​​owner is willing to work for humans. The person pays.

At that day, due to the huge wealth created by AI, human workers may still be paid much higher than today. At the same time, due to the abundant material resources, work will no longer be the center of life, and humans will be more relaxed and comfortable. (Knife)

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