Tide Capital: 6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving

At Bitcoin block height #837188, there are 20 days left before the fourth halving. Bitcoin is reaching the $70,000 mark here. Market sentiment has undergone subtle changes. Facing the upcoming Whether the halving will repeat the halving market or trigger a new narrative, both bulls and bears are competing fiercely.

Tide Capital released the latest research report "6 Big Ideas You Need to Know About Bitcoin Halving" on its official website, which elaborates on the six most important clues and judgments that drive Bitcoin prices.

This article excerpts part of the research report for public publication. For the full text, please log in to Tide Capital’s official website to download the full version of the research report.

Bitcoin: About to complete the 4th halving, reducing annual selling pressure by $10 billion

Bitcoin will complete the 4th halving on April 18, 2024 With the halving, the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 Bitcoins to 3.125 Bitcoins, further reducing the output and selling pressure of Bitcoin.

Before the halving, the annual output of Bitcoin was approximately 330,000. Based on a price of US$75,000, it would bring more than US$20 billion of selling pressure to the market. After the halving, the annual selling pressure on Bitcoin will also be reduced by half, which is equivalent to a reduction of US$10 billion, effectively easing the selling pressure on Bitcoin.

Bitcoin: 3 halvings in history, and all achieved significant gains in the following year

Bitcoin has experienced a total of 50 halvings in history There have been three halvings, namely in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020. The common point is that there was a sharp rise within a year after the halving. Currently, the fourth halving is less than 30 days away. The market is beginning to price in the impact of the halving, and there is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to fluctuate upward. Although there is still some time before the fourth halving, the market has begun to estimate the impact of the price halving, and Bitcoin has a high probability of continuing to rise. Overall, there is a high probability that the price of Bitcoin will continue to rise over time.

Bitcoin: Spot ETFs receive accelerated inflows of funds, boosting Bitcoin’s continued upward trend

1 On March 10, the BTC spot ETF was approved, which has since brought tens of billions of dollars in over-the-counter capital inflows, boosting Bitcoin's continued upward trend. In previous bull markets, BTC usually had corrections of more than 20%. However, the number of corrections in this bull market is not many and the magnitude of corrections is not large. This is precisely due to the continuous inflow of OTC funds.

Gold ETF, after the launch of the first gold ETF, gold ushered in an increase of more than 400%. Compared with gold, BTC storage is safer, transactions are more convenient, transfers are faster, and it has superior value storage characteristics. The current market value of gold is US$14.5 trillion, and the market value of Bitcoin is only US$1.3 trillion. Bitcoin is still only 10 times closer to gold. However, the launch of Bitcoin ETF is more popular than the gold ETF of that year, and the capital inflow rate is far faster. lead.

銘文：比特幣原生創新，減半時可望開啟第三波熱潮​​

2023年1月，比特幣開發者Casey Rodarmor發布了Ordinals協議，讓用戶將資料嵌入比特幣區塊鏈中，從而在比特幣上創建NFT和代幣類資產，開啟了比特幣生態的新玩法。上線至今，Ordinals總銘刻次數超過了6000萬。

銘文總共經歷了兩波熱潮，第一波始於2023年4月，龍頭代幣ORDI從$0.005上漲至$28，兩個月漲幅超過5000倍。第二波始於2023年10月，ORDI從$3上漲至$96，OKX、Binance紛紛上線銘文交易市場，帶動更多銘文資產上漲。

銘文是比特幣生態的原生創新，為比特幣社群帶來了更多的用戶和開發者，各種新型應用和玩法正在不斷出現。當比特幣進行下一次減半時，市場的焦點將再次回到比特幣生態中，銘文也將開啟第三波熱潮。

符文：協定預計在減半時上線，Runestone 有望成為核心資產

符文協議(Runes Protocol) 由Ordinals創始人Casey Rodarmor提出，作為BRC-20協議的改進升級版，旨在提供高效率、高兼容、高擴展的比特幣資產發行和管理框架，預計將在比特幣減半時正式上線，因此成為減半炒作的主流概念之一。

符石 (Rune Stone) 由Ordinals瀏覽器Ord.io創始人Leonidas推出，透過對112,383個比特幣地址空投NFT完成了初始發行，當前市值超過3億美元。符石已成為符文協議的代表性資產，越來越多的項目開始對持有符石的用戶進行空投，符石擁有巨大的想像空間，未來的應用和玩法值得期待。此外，符文協議上線後，持有符石的用戶可以將其轉換為同質化代幣。總的來說，符石Rune Stone具有“符文協議” “空投資產” “發幣預期”的敘事，有望成為比特幣減半行情的核心資產。

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Meme：藍籌NFT mfers發幣，12小時從0到2億美元市值

3月30日，藍籌NFT專案mfers創辦人sartoshi發行了代幣mfercoin，在白皮書中表示mfercoin是一個沒有內在價值、沒有獲利預期、沒有規定用途的Meme coin，並將80%的代幣都注入了流動性池中，其餘20%的代幣將空投給mfers社區。

NFT專案mfers上線於2021年，曾在加密社群掀起一股PFP熱潮，屬於知名的藍籌NFT專案。 mfercoin上線後，憑藉社區自發性的支持與傳播，12小時內實現從0到2億美元市值。對於mfercoin的未來，用mfers社群的話來說，1$mfer=1$mfer。

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