The biggest shortcoming of foldable screen mobile phones: no core application scenarios

What we are discussing today is not what a certain product is like, but returning to the topic of "folding screen" itself and exploring the "rationality" of folding screen mobile phones.

First of all, let’s take a look at the market performance of folding screen mobile phones. According to the latest data report from IDC, China’s folding screen mobile phone market will ship approximately 7.007 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 114.5%.

Among them, China’s foldable screen mobile phone market shipped approximately 2.771 million units in the fourth quarter of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 149.6%. The data does look good, and the growth is also very strong.

However, compared with the approximately 270 million smartphone shipments in the Chinese market in 2023, this data is really not enough.

Generally speaking, folding screens currently have a certain position in the market, but most of them are still based on "manufacturers showing off technology" and "market share". If you really want to make a lot of money with it, with the current shipment Judging from the quantity, it is probably not enough, or not much can be earned.

From the perspective of prospects, although the shipments of folding screen mobile phones are increasing every year, it is almost impossible to replace the traditional candy bar machine. There are many reasons here, such as the durability brought by the complex structure. Issues, whether it's screen creases or hinge strength, change over time.

In addition, there are its high selling price and maintenance costs, and its difficult to balance portability and functional requirements. Of course, the author feels that the biggest bottleneck hindering the development of folding screens is still the application scenario.

Smartphones can be used in everyone’s hands just because we need them. The candy bar machine has done a good job in this regard, and even made it possible to “roll” without being able to roll. To the extent that foldable screen phones do not break away from the category of smartphones.

It is just an "innovation" in form and application experience, but has almost no core application scenarios. Whether it is gaming, watching movies, or even mobile office, its advantages are not obvious, and there may even be certain disadvantages because the application is not adapted.

So if the application ecological construction is relatively complete, is it possible for folding screen mobile phones to replace candy bars? The author thinks it is still impossible.

Without core usage scenarios, no matter how perfect the application ecosystem is, it will be difficult to widen the gap in user experience between foldable screen phones and candy bar phones.

This is because, for most users, the basic functions of mobile phones, such as calling, surfing the Internet, taking pictures, etc., can already be satisfied by a straight phone, while a foldable screen phone does not provide additional advantages in these aspects.

Unless one day there is a top-level APP that is only suitable for folding screens, or folding screens are comparable in size and weight to current thin and light mobile phones, then it is possible to promote the popularity of folding screens.

Finally:

Generally speaking, without core usage scenarios and technological breakthroughs, it is difficult for folding screen phones to completely replace candy bars.

Of course, we must also admit that this does not mean that folding screen mobile phones have no development prospects. With the continuous advancement of technology and the changing market, folding screen mobile phones may still be used in certain specific fields or scenarios. Find your place next.

Moreover, technological development often brings unexpected changes. Maybe there will be some kind of disruptive change at some point in the future, prompting folding screen mobile phones to go further.

It’s just that for consumers right now, folding screen mobile phones are more of “early adopters” or have attributes that show personality. Most users will choose folding screen products, often because of their novelty. Curiosity about form and unique technology rather than need for practical use.

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