Prediction: Hugging Face CEO reveals six major changes in the AI ​​industry in 2024!

What will the AI ​​industry evolve into in 2024?

OpenAI Chairman Greg Brockman once predicted on the last day of last year: 2023 will make 2022 look like AI development has not yet awakened.

Sure enough, in 2023, the AI ​​industry will usher in a full-scale explosion.

Yesterday, Clement Delangue, CEO of Hugging Face, the world’s largest AI open source community, made 6 specific predictions for the development of the industry in 2024:

1. A certain popular AI company will go bankrupt or be acquired at a very low price.

Open source LLM has a level of capability comparable to closed source LLM

3.AI in video, biology, chemistry, time series and other fields will bring about huge breakthroughs.

4. The public will be more concerned about the economic and environmental costs of AI.

5. In the future, mass media will be filled with content generated by artificial intelligence

6. 10 million AI developers on Hugging Face will It will create new job opportunities and will not lead to a surge in unemployment.

The breakthroughs in the AI ​​industry in 2023 are mainly reflected in the AI ​​technology itself. However, these six new predictions indicate that AI technology will further break through the circle in 2024, and its breakthrough influence will far exceed the scope of the AI ​​industry.

Netizens responded to his six predictions The predictions were evaluated and the probability of occurrence of three of them was considered to be no more than 50%

Some people think that all six predictions are credible, even Several of them have become reality

The first wave of AI companies will go bankrupt

For the first prediction, combined with the previous two days OpenAI's violent turmoil has caused netizens to become angry.

Clement quickly came out to smooth things over. I was predicting myself.

Netizens have made various speculations, mentioning star startups such as Adept and Perplexity

However, in fact, similar The situation has already occurred as early as 2023. Jasper AI is an AI startup that was once valued at more than $1.5 billion. As the "originator of shelling GPT", the company reported negative news about layoffs and an 80% drop in valuation in July

In OpenAI After the launch of GPTs, it can be expected that the prospects of various artificial intelligence companies based on OpenAI technology will become increasingly limited

If they cannot find a path to independently create value in the future, From a valuation of more than 1 billion US dollars to bankruptcy or being acquired at a low price is not too surprising

Open Source VS. Closed Source

The gap between AI open source and closed source, the future Whether it will be further expanded or reduced, industry leaders, AI open source companies, scientific researchers, and users have always had different voices. People have always had different views on whether the gap between AI open source and closed source will expand or shrink in the future. Industry leaders, AI open source companies, researchers and users have always had different views.

From Google engineers at the beginning of the year revealed that neither OpenAI nor Google has a moat, and open source AI is their biggest opponent.

On the other hand, open source models that continue to emerge in various fields claim to be close to or exceed GPT-4

Recently, the Berkeley team announced the Starling-7B model, which surpasses all other models in some benchmark tests and is close to the level of GPT-4 by using RLAIF technology

Project address: https://starling.cs.berkeley.edu/

There are even some open source models that claim to be comparable to GPT-4 on some specific tasks, including even a 7B size model

Supporters of the open source model claim that compared with adopting a closed source model, the difference in the open source model may take 3-5 years to be reflected

The second prediction caused netizens to Their controversy

"Due to the huge gap in computing power between open source and closed source, it is still very difficult for open source to catch up with closed source."

"I don’t understand why the gap between open source and closed source will shrink. After all, all the knowledge and technology of the open source model are shared, while closed source AI always has something unique to them. 》

AI For Science

In the biological field, DeepMind’s AlphaFold is already surpassing human capabilities At a high level, the structure of proteins was predicted, directly breaking through the forefront of biology.

Microsoft recently published a report, trying GPT-4 in the fields of biology, computational chemistry, drug discovery, materials design and The scientific research fields of partial differential equations (PDE) are valuable as academic research assistants.

Paper link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.07361

According to Microsoft According to researchers, artificial intelligence tools will greatly accelerate the progress of basic scientific research

Currently, there are many tools and platforms that apply machine learning technology to various professional fields

Project address: https://chemintelligence.com/our-platform

Netizens are also concerned about the breakthroughs that AI may achieve in scientific research fields related to time series (Time-Series, which refers to the use of time series in applied science and engineering fields such as statistics, signal processing, pattern recognition, econometrics, and mathematical finance). Very optimistic.

Some netizens even contributed a paper to explain why time series related scientific research is so important

The content that needs to be rewritten is: Paper link: https://arxiv.org/abs/2310.03589

"Finally, someone has seen this, and a good Transformer model for time series has emerged."

The energy caused by AI And environmental costs

#In a podcast, Musk talked about the most important first-principles thinking in the AI ​​industry. He believes that there is still a lot of room for improvement in the Transformer model in terms of energy and intelligence output ratio

Research by Alex de Vries, a data scientist at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam in the Netherlands, predicts that by 2027 , the artificial intelligence server farm can use 85 to 134 terawatt hours of energy per year

https://www.php.cn/link/f52166cd701447355be87cbf41d31ca4

And foreign media also have Many reports have pointed out that the development of AI technology will cause a sharp rise in energy and water consumption in the future.

In 2027, AI energy consumption may be equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of Argentina, the Netherlands or Sweden, or 0.5% of global energy demand.

AIGC floods the media

It is no exaggeration to say that AI-generated content of videos and images, Now moving at the speed of light.

One to two years ago, it was difficult for anyone to imagine that such an AI animation could be completely generated by AI.

The co-founder of DreamWorks recently publicly stated that artificial intelligence will reduce the cost of the animation industry by 90% in the next three years!

Maybe next year, animation content creation will be further democratized, and the consequences will be that, like short videos overnight Taking the world by storm, videos generated by Gen AI will become a very important part of video content.

AI’s impact on the labor market

The impact of AI on the labor market has always been a concern for the AI ​​industry. The focus of controversy.

To some extent, the Hugging Face CEO’s prediction may be a potential answer to this question.

If more people can join the open source AI developer industry, will the jobs created thereby be able to make up for the labor force replaced by the development of AI technology.

But most netizens don’t seem to agree with this logic.

The second and sixth items are both jokes. Although more developers will appear on Hugging Face, AI will still reconstruct the labor market.

After all, Sam Altman was briefly unemployed for 2 days after becoming the CEO of OpenAI because of AI.

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