Google DeepMind co-founder: Humans have a 50% chance of achieving AGI by 2028

On October 31, according to technology podcast Dwarkesh Patel, Shane Legg, co-founder of Google’s DeepMind Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, said in a recent interview that he still believes that by By 2028, researchers have a 50% chance of achieving human-level artificial intelligence (AGI). This prediction was publicly announced on his blog at the end of 2011, when he predicted the development trend of artificial intelligence in the next few decades.

Legg said he began focusing on AGI in 2001. At that time, he read the book "The Age of Spiritual Machines" by Ray Kurzweil, another leader in artificial intelligence at Google, which predicted the future of superhuman intelligence. Legg said he believed two important points in the book: first, computing power will grow exponentially for at least several decades; second, the amount of data in the world will also grow exponentially for at least several decades. Combining the technology trends at the time, such as deep learning and other methods, Legg believes that AGI will be possible in the next few decades, as long as "no crazy things happen, such as nuclear war"

Note on this site When asked where we are currently on the road to AGI, Legg said he believes computing power has reached the level needed to achieve AGI and that "the first unlocking step" will be to "start using "Training models on a scale of data that exceeds what a human can experience in a lifetime" is something he believes the AI ​​industry is ready for.

However, Legg also reiterated his personal position that he only believes there is a 50% chance that researchers will achieve AGI before the end of this decade. "I think it is entirely possible," he said. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it hasn’t happened by then.”

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