Are fund managers going to lose their jobs? Some institutions let AI manage funds, and the general manager said: Reduce the drawdown by 10 percentage points! Programmers, musicians, models...who will be replaced by AI?

Every Journal Reporter: Yang Jian, Wen Qiao, Zheng Yuhang, Tan Yuhan, Sun Yuting, Li Menglin Every Journal Editor: Duan Lian, Ye Feng, Lan Suying, Gao Han

AI stock trading is here!

Just now, a private equity firm announced that will let artificial intelligence independently manage a fund!

Original painters, musicians, programmers, models, photographers, copy editors, study abroad agents... who else are facing being replaced by AI?

Picture source: Visual China

AI "Cybertron" will independently manage fundsGeneral Manager: ReduceRetracement by 10 percentage points

On June 1, the private equity company Zhiyu Zhishan Investment announced that it plans to arrange for four of the company’s researchers and an artificial intelligence-based robot (tentatively named Cybertron) to independently manage five different private equity investments. fund.

Four of the researchers manage four funds individually, and the most concerning thing is that the AI ​​named Cybertron individually manages Zhishan No. 1 and is supervised by the company's general manager.

The company announced that all researchers and robots will share our investment research stock pool. This move is expected to allow each researcher to directly participate in investment practice and have a positive impact on future research work, forming A virtuous cycle to promote the company's continuous improvement in performance (non-commitment). At the same time, the independent management of funds by AI robots will be our first attempt to integrate subjectivity with AI and invest in the global market in a quantitative way, laying a solid foundation for the AI ​​era.

Private equity ranking network data shows that Zhizhishan Investment’s overall return this year is 16.52%. So what is the effect of AI stock trading based on Zhishan Investment? He Li, general manager of Zhiyu Zhishan Investment, told the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that the performance of the company's products this year has been as high as more than 30% and as low as 15%. Comparing AI and fund managers, what are the differences in terms of performance? He Li told reporters that there is a problem with the products that fund managers subjectively manage, that is, the drawdown is relatively large. Judging from the current data run by AI, the retracement is reduced when the income remains unchanged, at least by 10 percentage points. Anyway, the advantage is still very obvious.

In the investment process, does AI play an auxiliary role or is it active management? He Li told reporters that orders placed during the investment process are also placed through artificial intelligence. There is no need for human selection, and it is similar to a quantitative program. transactions. 30% of our investment targets are artificial intelligence, and AI plays a big role in the investment process. In fact, since this year, the company has been using AI to continuously try and optimize investment strategies. There are several differences between AI fund managers and the current programmed trading of quantitative institutions. First, the entire investment research framework is being reshaped with artificial intelligence, and AI fund managers do not use quantitative factors. Secondly, AI fund managers do not rely on financial logic. The third is that AI fund managers make investments based on deep learning. We have been studying this area since the end of last year, and another colleague of ours is currently in charge.

Previously, according to foreign media reports, nearly 25,000 investors have participated in an experimental project launched by the trading platform Autopilot, to verify the reliability of AI stock trading. The platform claims that they use ChatGPT to lead investments and can bring a 500% return within one year. The traders bet a total of $14.7 million on the AI's stock picks, which would average about $600 each if they invested all after signing up. Initial target selections include multinational e-commerce company Amazon, D.R. Horton, one of the four largest real estate companies in the United States, and hemodialysis service provider Davita Health. Two weeks later, the portfolio was up about 2%, almost the same as the broader market. Some netizens questioned that fund managers need a series of qualifications and certificates such as securities and fund qualification certificates. How can AI robots obtain these qualifications?

In this regard, a lawyer explained that

the current regulations on relevant industries in our country are all set up for people, and there are no regulations to clarify what kind of access and restrictions are required for AI robots to engage in fund management work

.

Get a song in 10 minutesAI soundtrack can save 200,000 costs a year For a long time, creative activities have been generally considered to be the most difficult type of work to be replaced by AI. However, under the "violent" training of huge AI models, human creative activities seem to be able to be decomposed and reconstructed by large amounts of data. The words "inspiration" and "creativity" have been demystified.

Currently, AI has begun to impact the original artist industry. Will musicians who are also creative workers also fall into anxiety?

"I'm at the Computex conference, and I'll make you like me the most, yeah, sing with me, I like NVIDIA the most," NVIDIA CEO Jen-Hsun Huang casually made up a few words at an event on May 29. According to the lyrics, the AI ​​completed the composition and singing in a few seconds, and Huang Renxun led thousands of viewers to sing karaoke together.

Since ChatGPT completely ignited the fire of generative AI, the music field has also accelerated its evolution. From lyrics creation and composition to arrangement and singing, AI has penetrated into every aspect of music production.

Many industry insiders interviewed by "Daily Economic News" said that in fields such as games and video soundtracks, AI music has begun to occupy a place. Some companies can save up to 200,000 costs a year by using AI .

As the technical threshold gradually lowers, ordinary people also begin to try to use music to make traffic money. On Station B, Up owners took advantage of the popularity of AI Stefanie Sun to use their imaginations to train various AI covers; on the Youtube website, had bloggers use AI to generate music with AI illustrations, and it took 10 minutes You can get a song, and the annual advertising share can reach up to 100,000 US dollars.

Photo source: Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Bowen

When creating the Metaverse, we needed a lot of background music and game soundtracks. For example, when a window appears, a corresponding piece of music is needed. While the requirements for this kind of soundtrack are not high, what is not possible without it is not enough, so AI music is particularly suitable to fill these gaps. Chen Chenchen, the main creator of the band SPIICE and also the entrepreneur of Yuanverse, told the Daily Economic News, "It is impossible for us to recruit a person specifically to do the soundtrack, because this is a volume-based thing, and it is cost-effective to do it ourselves." Too high. ”

Talking about the impact of AI music technology on the company, Chen Chenchen said, "(AI) has greatly improved the cost and efficiency, and can save a lot of people. Recruiting a person who makes music, You also have to buy various equipment. This equipment is estimated to cost 100,000 yuan. Plus labor (salary), can save almost 200,000 yuan."

"The traditional game soundtrack process is very complicated. Generally, the planning and art departments first align the requirements, and then ask the producer to compose the music, then arrange, mix, and finally review it. During the process, constant modifications are made, which costs a lot of money. Very high." Yang Jie, head of music products at Chengdu Potential Artificial Intelligence Technology Co., Ltd. (Xingzhe AI), told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, " And AI technology can quickly generate demos (music samples) from demand, which is determined Then refine the direction, eliminating a lot of intermediate links.”

According to those in the industry who are actively embracing it, AI will greatly lower the technical threshold for music from idea to finished product. In the future, individuals can become creators based solely on their own music taste.

Complete a game in 15 minutesThe efficiency of writing code is several times that of programmers

In May of this year, at the annual Web Summit, GitHub CEO Domec conducted the first official live demonstration of Copilot X integrating ChatGPT-4 capabilities. He set a "small goal" for himself on stage: to write a snake game in ten minutes. Although there were some "interruptions" along the way, it was all finished in less than 15 minutes.

In his speech, Domek said that becoming a 10x programmer (one to ten) does not require working 10 times as hard, but rather using AI in every process.

Image source: Web Summit official video screenshot

GitHub Copilot’s AI code writing function really makes many programmers put it down. After all, just a few years ago, every tiny bit of code still needed to be typed in manually.

Google engineer Aiko told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that the arrival of AI has also had a profound impact on his work, especially the code completion function similar to GitHub Copilot, which he and his colleagues have been using almost every day use. According to him, Google's code completion tool is based on its own huge code base, with billions of lines of internal code. Currently, this function has been automatically integrated into the company's internal code writing tool.

"Sometimes I have just entered two characters, and the AI ​​has already thought about what to write next. If there are no errors, just keep pressing the Tab key. 9 out of 10 items do not need to be modified by me. Sometimes I think It’s too difficult, it definitely can’t guess it, but it can actually do it,” Aiko shared.

Andrej Karpathy, the former Tesla AI director who just returned to OpenAI, also revealed that AI has helped him complete 80% of the code with 80% accuracy, and his main work has been written line by line. Coding becomes writing prompt words and revising. He also admitted that he felt inexplicable fear when he realized that there was only himself and the cursor in the editor.

According to the aforementioned Google engineer Aiko, Microsoft actually launched a famous integrated development environment (IDE) called Visual Studio very early, which can complete the program code according to the grammar rules, that is, complete the format. "But there are more than a dozen gigabytes (which takes up a lot of computer hard drive space), so many people don't use it. Later, there were relatively lightweight code editors, such as Visual Studio Code, which has basically dominated the world, and many people really used it. Format-based code completion was implemented. However, it was not until GitHub Copilot was officially launched in recent years that the conversion from format completion to content completion was realized.”

Image source: Every warp drawing

Talking about whether AI can improve the efficiency of writing code by 10 times, Aiko pointed out, "10 times is a bit exaggerated, but there are still two or three times. Because programmers spend the most time Think about how to write code, rather than writing code. Programmers must first think of a specific algorithm, and then AI can help fill in the content of certain paragraphs."

Aiko added that currently AI can solve more classic pure algorithm problems. But if it is for a specific business application, AI cannot yet write usable code because it cannot understand the business. "Take primary school mathematics as an example. AI can write codes to solve word calculation problems, but it cannot solve application problems. According to the current development speed, it will probably be very fast to reach 10 times.

It may only take a few years, we will I discovered that the imagination of AI automatically generating programs in "The Wandering Earth 2" may not be that far away." Aiko also said that AI provides programmers with more than just writing code, it can even modify the code based on the suggestions of code reviewers. Members of the core team of Google Research recently published an article in the blog area of ​​its official website stating that their engineers can already use AI modification suggestions to handle a large number of review comments,

is expected to save Google hundreds of thousands of hours of code review every year. School time

. And this “AI-assisted code modification technology” will be released soon.

"Generate several versions in 10 minutes"Photographers, models, and copywriters can all be replaced Since 2019, Anna has been working part-time as a wig model on a domestic cross-border e-commerce platform. Before March this year, she had a relatively stable number of orders. But recently, her order volume has begun to drop sharply - it is ChatGPT

that is competing with her for jobs, which has caused huge waves at home and abroad.

How did ChatGPT take away the jobs of models and photographers?

Qian Dazhu, a senior cross-border e-commerce seller engaged in beauty, wigs and other categories, revealed in an interview with "Daily Economic News" that

real shots of wig models that once cost tens of thousands of yuan can now be taken Relying on ChatGPT and Midjourney, several versions of

can be generated in just 10 minutes. “And the actual simulation shows that AI drawing will be more realistic than real photography.

After the rendering is completed, it will definitely be better than manual photography. .”

Display generated by Midjourney Image source: Interviewee

“

The company has laid off most copy editors, and basic English editors can now be eliminated

.

There were five or six people in our copywriting department before, but now there is only one person left." Li Shaofeng, who has been involved in the field of cross-border e-commerce for 11 years, told reporters, "It (ChatGPT) helps with translation and product editing, it is fast and good, and the accuracy is very high." Qian Dazhu also experienced a similar situation. "In December last year, we were originally planning to expand the number of team members, but so far this year we have basically not hired anyone, and it would be good if we don't reduce the number of people now

."

Clerical teacher has had “no income” for two monthsThe business line of an overseas study agency has shrunk by 60% Wang Chaochun, a 26-year-old clerical worker studying abroad, has not received any work for several months. In the past peak season for studying abroad, his monthly income was about 15,000 yuan. However, with the development and popularization of AIGC technology, in the past two months, Wang Chaochun has been unable to gain anything

.

The "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that due to the emergence of AI tools such as ChatGPT, not only the income of independent study abroad document teachers has been greatly affected, but the business lines of study abroad institutions are also constantly being eroded.

Picture source: Visual China-VCG211130066044

Zhang Ye, the owner of a study abroad service agency headquartered in London but with branches in many domestic cities, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter that they provide undergraduate, master's and doctoral applications, thesis polishing, and admissions services for people studying in the UK. Businesses such as Ke appeal have been affected by ChatGPT, and some business lines have even shrunk by more than 60%.

A financing consultant of a private equity financing company involved in the field of education and training told reporters frankly that study abroad documents are a typical industry impacted by ChatGPT. AI-generated content has large scale, high quality, low unit cost, and strong ease of use. If the service organization cannot provide service value that is differentiated from AI, users are more likely to use ChatGPT to complete the polishing of basic text. Instead of paying for help from an agency like before.

In his view, industries (study abroad institutions, etc.) that are data-intensive and have strong data accessibility, and the generated content can be directly used for delivery to end users or further downstream processing (study abroad institutions, etc.) will be the first to be affected by ChatGPT. Data collection The human work links of processing, processing and structured output may have begun to be replaced.

The GPT model continues to iterate, and the performance of natural language understanding and content generation has been greatly enhanced. ChatGPT has kicked off the natural language processing productivity revolution. How should practitioners studying abroad "break the situation"? Wang Chaochun is still confused after walking around the job market, while Zhang Ye adheres to the principle of "join if you can't beat it" and is developing an AI platform by himself.

"We are based on the ChatGPT database, and use AIGC technology and our own algorithms to make the model as open to use as possible to meet the feedback level of study abroad institutions. Zhang Ye further explained that in the future, if students have needs related to studying abroad , you can communicate through this platform first to reduce a lot of labor costs.

However, according to the reporter’s understanding, the cost of “joining if you can’t beat it” is not low.

Zhang Ye revealed to reporters that to train large language models, high-performance hardware, such as GPU and TPU, is required. The higher the performance, the faster the training speed, but the more expensive it is. "Since I was born in technology, the expenses of other models in the industry are already very 'restrained'. It is estimated that the R&D and maintenance expenses plus labor costs in the first year will be around 1.31 million pounds (approximately RMB 11.6 million) , if the progress is as expected, we will start to expand the market in the second year, The budget is nearly 2 million pounds (approximately RMB 17.72 million) ."

Goldman Sachs: AI can replace 300 million European and American white-collar jobsIBM academician: AI should aim to enhance rather than replace humans

In March, a paper published by OpenAI, OpenResearch, a non-profit research and experimental organization, and the University of Pennsylvania stated that about 80% of the U.S. workforce may have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of large language models, and about 19% of workers are likely to see at least 50% of their work tasks affected. Goldman Sachs has previously stated in a report that the AI revolution can replace 300 million European and American white-collar jobs, with legal and administrative jobs most affected, while architects and engineers are also in danger of being eliminated.

But it is worth noting that, also benefiting from the development of AI, the efficiency of all walks of life has been greatly improved. Taking cross-border e-commerce as an example, some interviewees told reporters that with the help of AI tools such as ChatGPT, things that previously cost tens of thousands of yuan can be completed in 10 minutes. In March to April this year, other The company's performance increased by more than 200% compared to the same period last year.

The data from scientific researchers also illustrates this point. According to a year-long study by Stanford University and MIT on customer service staff of a Fortune 500 software company, generative AI improves work efficiency by an average of 14%, and new employees with unfamiliar skills benefit the most. Efficiency increased by 35%.

Regarding whether AI can replace human labor, there are gradually more and more different voices. A recent report released by Deutsche Bank stated that history has proven that AI will eventually create rather than destroy jobs. The new wave of AI will create more jobs than the jobs it replaces.

"I once said in the 1980s that it is easy to predict which jobs will disappear, but it is difficult to predict which new jobs will be created. It is worth noting that countries with higher numbers of robots per capita have lower unemployment rates On the contrary, it is relatively low because many new jobs have been created (with the help of new technologies)." Jürgen Schmidhuberr, the "father of deep learning" who is well-known in the international AI field, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, "30 years ago, Who could have predicted that so many people would make money as vloggers now?"

In parallel with this, The Economist recently published an article titled "Your job may not be affected by AI." The report mentioned that in 2013, Oxford University published a widely cited paper stating that automation may eliminate 47% of American jobs in the next decade or so. But what has actually happened is astonishing. Over the past decade, the average unemployment rate in developed countries has roughly halved, the share of the working-age population employed is at an all-time high, and countries such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea have the highest penetration of automation and robotics. The country's unemployment rate is the lowest.

Unemployment trends in G7 countries from 1991 to 2023 Image source: The Economist

When talking about the role that AI will play in human society in the future, Francesca Rossi, IBM academician and global head of AI ethics, told reporters, "AI should aim to enhance rather than replace humans .”

"It is true that AI will have a temporary negative impact on many jobs, and the impact will happen relatively quickly, so we need to have a safety net to minimize the pain of the transition. Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa, a professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the California Institute of Technology, stated that....

So, how should the world build this safety net during this transition period?

In Francesca Rossi’s view, concerns about AI often stem from a lack of understanding of what happens inside the “black box.” “The development and application of AI systems must be rooted in ethics, which means prioritizing responsible training, Cooperation and supervision. As AI technology continues to be popularized and used, it is normal for people to still be wary of this technology, but the reality is that the advantages of AI are obvious. Only by putting ethics at the core of AI development can society Learn to trust it.”

"When considering deploying AI, we should first consider whether the existing safety and quality precautions that apply to various products also apply to AI products." In addition, an agency similar to the FDA is needed to approve AI products and ensure that they are safe, free from bias, and that their ‘side effects’ (such as privacy leaks, etc.) are within acceptable standards. "Abu-Mostafa told the "Daily Economic News" reporter.

With the widespread use of AI in the human world, how to achieve a balance between human and machine coexistence? Schmidhuber told the "Daily Economic News" reporter, "Whatever balance we reach at some point, it will have to change soon, because AI will continue to learn to do new things that only humans can do before. Therefore, The balance point between automation and human participation will continue to change, and humans should always be ready to learn new things. Just like 200 years ago, in many countries, 60% of people were engaged in agricultural work. Today, this data is only 1%~2%.”

While AI is widely used, humans also need to be wary of over-reliance on AI. Abu-Mostafa said, "All automation has the same risks. There is no alternative available because the human team responsible for performing the task has been disbanded and cannot easily regroup to solve the problem."

In this regard, Schmidhuber said that embracing and mastering new technologies can help avoid this situation. "Looking back at history, when calculators were first introduced, teachers banned students from using them in schools to prevent over-reliance on the machines. But now, children learn both the basics of arithmetic and how to use calculators," he said. Explaining to reporters, “The consensus today is that we should ensure that children learn to write papers on their own, but also ensure that they learn how to write papers with the help of AI.”

Reporter|

Yang JianWen Qiao Zheng Yuhang Tan Yuhan Sun Yuting Li Menglin

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|Duan Lian Ye Feng Lan Suying Gao Han Du Bo

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Cheng Peng ｜Daily Economic News nbdnews original article｜

Daily Economic News

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