Will driverless driving be universal in ten years?

I saw this question on Zhihu: Will driverless driving be universal in ten years? And asked whether it is still necessary to learn a driver's license now. This is a very interesting question, because it involves the possibility of the commercialization of autonomous driving and how our lives will change after autonomous driving is implemented. This question also involves a concept, that is, universalization, which is also an issue worth discussing. Smart Driving Frontier will start from this issue and discuss it with everyone.

Autonomous driving is related to smart travel, smart transportation, and smart cities. It is a major trend in future development and will also be a technological change that changes social lifestyles. Autonomous driving, in short, is the change in the role of car control. Now our travel process is completely inseparable from the role of humans. Whether it is a car, a motorcycle, an electric car, or a bicycle, they all need People control the driving tools. These driving tools are more used to speed up the travel process and make long-distance travel faster and more convenient. However, this kind of travel process does not free people's hands. During the travel process, people still need to spend a lot of time observing the traffic conditions. Even if they take a taxi, the role of the driver is still a human being. He only observes the traffic conditions during the trip. The task is handed over to the driver, but it does not actually reduce people's participation in the transportation process.

The concept of autonomous driving fundamentally solves the need for people to observe traffic conditions when participating in transportation. It frees people from the role of controlling transportation and allows them to spend more time for entertainment and rest. . The concept of autonomous driving was not proposed in recent years, but the technology has developed so far, and there is still no possibility of widespread use. This may still be the case in the next ten years or longer. The development of autonomous driving also involves policy, technology, Many issues related to social acceptance are not “simple” technical implementation, but more related to social development. This may be the most difficult and least easy to solve problem.

Going back to the original question, "Can driverless driving be universalized in ten years?" Here is a concept, which type of driverless driving is meant? From a technical perspective, autonomous driving can be divided into low-speed autonomous driving and high-speed autonomous driving. Low-speed autonomous driving is the autonomous vehicle that we see delivering express delivery, delivering food, and picking up passengers in closed places such as parks, restaurants, and campuses. Driving a car, this type of unmanned driving has several characteristics, namely closedness and low speed. This type of unmanned driving tool has a fixed working range, a relatively fixed running path, and the driving speed is also low during the work process. , which solves people’s last-mile problems such as takeout and express delivery.

With the development of technology, low-speed autonomous driving will become more and more popular and even be applied to all aspects of society. In addition to the common food delivery and express delivery, such as tourist transfers at tourist attractions and ports Scenarios such as the transportation and loading of goods, the transportation and placement of mining materials, etc., where the working environment is simple, the changes will not be particularly large, and the working distance is relatively short, will be replaced by low-speed autonomous driving, and more people will be able to complete other complex tasks. , to maximize the use of human resources.

However, in the direction of high-speed autonomous driving, it may not be implemented as quickly as low-speed autonomous driving. After high-speed autonomous driving is truly implemented, it will be able to carry people just like the cars on the road now. Realize long-distance, multi-scenario activities. Under the concept of high-speed autonomous driving, autonomous vehicles need to be able to make judgments on different traffic conditions just like human drivers, and can respond quickly in traffic environments where sudden problems arise. This will be very difficult.

Autonomous driving's judgment of road conditions and decision-making of actions are mainly based on the written code. The written code will determine the response of the autonomous vehicle when encountering certain traffic conditions. If you want to make the automatic driving It is technically impossible to drive a car without the constraints of code and have the same thinking as a human driver.

The development of high-speed autonomous driving includes two types: single-vehicle intelligence and vehicle-road collaboration. Due to the high cost, the development model of single-vehicle intelligence requires more technology to allow the car to complete driving, which not only requires a long design time , it is also necessary to consider whether the design cost can be accepted by the public during the design process. Under the development model of vehicle-road collaboration, the hardware equipment installed in self-driving cars can be effectively reduced, but there are still some problems such as road upgrades and Internet speed improvements. made more requests.

Moreover, the current traffic laws and regulations are also based on "people", and more consideration is given to the problems that may arise when "people" participate in transportation. At this stage, there are no laws and regulations for self-driving cars. As for low-speed autonomous driving, high-speed autonomous driving mainly focuses on "carrying people", so more laws and regulations are needed to regulate it to ensure the safety of passengers. In order to ensure that the laws and regulations formulated can meet the requirements for making self-driving cars universal, more time is needed to discuss and plan to take into account all possible problems. Taken together, this series of constraints will make it more difficult to universalize autonomous driving.

In the question, it was also mentioned about universalization, that is, autonomous driving can be seen everywhere, and even all travel tools are autonomous vehicles. There is an issue worth discussing, the implementation of autonomous driving. , will there be a stage where self-driving cars and cars driven by human drivers coexist? If there is this stage, do self-driving cars and cars driven by human drivers need to drive separately, or do they directly share the same road? If there is such a stage, when the proportion of self-driving cars reaches what proportion will self-driving be considered universal?

As autonomous driving comes to fruition, will there be a stage where autonomous vehicles and human-driven vehicles coexist? Nowadays, many OEMs use advanced assisted driving systems as an entry point to promote the advancement of their own technologies when promoting to the outside world. However, this type of advanced assisted driving does not represent driverless driving. It is just a way to reduce the number of drivers. Driving fatigue is an auxiliary tool to increase driving safety. Only when it fully meets the L5 requirements of SAE can it be considered true autonomous driving. Therefore, the current stage cannot be regarded as a stage where autonomous vehicles and human-driven vehicles coexist.

When self-driving cars are truly launched, it will not be possible to directly replace cars driven by human drivers with driverless cars. As a travel tool, the replacement of a car mainly depends on whether its functions can meet travel requirements and The purchasing power of consumers, so when self-driving cars are launched, there will definitely be a stage where self-driving cars and human-driven cars coexist. Just like in the early days of the popularity of smartphones, there will still be many people using feature phones, even if smartphones Having been popular for many years, feature phones are still used by many people.

When self-driving cars and human drivers coexist, is it necessary to open a dedicated lane for self-driving cars? Just as there were generally fewer people using smartphones in the early days of smartphones, in the early days of self-driving technology, there were not many self-driving cars participating in traffic. Setting up dedicated lanes would be very time-consuming, labor-intensive and cost-intensive because If you want self-driving cars to reach all places that drivers can reach, if you want to open dedicated lanes, they need to be opened on all road sections, including highways, urban roads, town roads and even rural roads. Therefore, after the implementation of self-driving cars, self-driving cars and human-driven cars will share more roads, and one of the standards for the implementation of self-driving cars will be: whether they can adapt to the requirements of the traffic environment.

#Then what proportion of self-driving cars must reach before they are considered universal? This is a standard that is difficult to measure. Everyone has their own ideas about this concept. The forefront of smart driving believes that for the universalization of autonomous driving, everyone should adapt to the existence of autonomous driving, and most trips will be Will be provided by autonomous driving. Going back to the original question, will driverless driving be universal in ten years? Difficult, very difficult. Because there are too many fields involved, the universalization of driverless driving will still have a long way to go, so it is still very necessary to learn a driver's license.

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