How long will it take for the 5g era to arrive?

The popularity of 5G networks, 5G mobile phones, 5G tablets, and 5G no longer just stays in the capital market where red and green lines intersect. In the testing ground of real technology, 5G commercial products have indeed begun to take shape and gradually grown into "Final look".

At the MWC exhibition in Barcelona, ​​known as the "vane of mobile technology", 5G can be seen everywhere, whether it is the layout of the venue, the keynote speeches of technology tycoons, or the product applications demonstrated at the booth. Stepping into the booths of technology giants such as Huawei, ZTE, Ericsson, Qualcomm, and Intel, the slogans of “Leading 5G, Perfect 5G, Boost 4G to 5G” seemed to announce the official arrival of the 5G commercial era.

For enterprises in the communications ecosystem that are in urgent need of new opportunities, 5G is indeed a turning point of once-in-a-lifetime opportunities, with greater bandwidth, more connections, and more All imaginative business models will change with the official arrival of 5G. But the closer the curtain starts, the more important it may be to maintain a suitable rhythm and a clear mind. How much monetization capability does 5G network have? Is the market mature enough? These questions are worth thinking about.

A real case that can be referenced. After Huawei successively released major news about 5G at MWC, Huawei’s rotating CEOs heard some different voices from customers.

An internal Huawei employee told the author that 5G is an undoubted trend, and Huawei is also actively deploying it. However, judging from the actual situation of receiving customers at this exhibition, currently only 10% of global operators They have shown a strong willingness to invest in 5G, but more operators still maintain a calm attitude. From another perspective, how to obtain more revenue on existing networks is still the most concerned issue for current telecom operators.

Although the technology is very hot, 5G is far from mature in front of the market.

At this time last year, some telecom operators expressed a pessimistic attitude towards 5G investment. "Purchasing equipment from traditional equipment vendors is a huge expense. On the road from 4G to 5G, I am afraid that some traditional equipment vendors will not be able to survive." Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, CTO of Deutsche Telekom, said that most of the investment occurs in 5G Wireless access network, return on investment is too low. In order to control costs, we cannot invest in 5G according to the past model.

Such a cold warning stems from Deutsche Telekom’s concerns and disappointment about the investment costs of 5G wireless access networks. Deutsche Telekom estimates that 5G wireless access investment will account for 50% to 70% of the total 5G investment, which is an astronomical figure.

Deutsche Telekom’s idea may be common among operators around the world.

Huawei is also concerned about the prospects of the communications industry. At an event on the 27th, Huawei's rotating CEO Xu Zhijun said frankly that the communications ecosystem is in an unhealthy state and a more innovative cooperation model should be adopted to face the future.

"In the past, our industry was like this. A standard was established between industries. Our equipment vendors developed and produced products, and operators tested and tendered for use. But from Huawei's perspective, what is really put into the market It’s not bad if the product can use 30% to 40% of the performance. Moreover, we may not be able to provide what consumers really need. As the entire telecommunications network moves toward cloudification, is this long-term business model feasible? I am deeply skeptical about supporting us in getting out of an unhealthy state." Xu Zhijun said.

It has to be said that after stepping out of the 5G carnival, the entire communications industry is still anxious, and this anxiety is only increasing as 5G technology becomes increasingly mature.

In fact, at times like this, the more calm we need, the iteration, upgrade, and commercialization of any generation of mobile communication technology are not achieved overnight. For operators, if 5G is commercialized too early, it means that the 4G 100-meter race has not ended yet, and the 5G race has begun again. How to recover the cost of 4G network construction? There must be a suitable rhythm for harvesting in autumn and hiding in winter.

As the foundation of the network, the 4G network will exist for a long time because it meets basic mobile broadband needs. For 5G, we still have a lot to do. More importantly, no one wants to be a victim of technology kidnapping. When cheering for 5G, every participant should think more about this issue.