Can long-term holding of altcoins (HODL) really make money?

Long-term holding of altcoins may make money, but the probability is less than 10%. 1. 90% of altcoins have performed poorly for a long time, and most of them have reached zero or underperformed the market. 2. Projects with "anti-cycle" capabilities (such as ETH, SOL, LINK) may make long-term profits. 3. The collapse of token economics, technological elimination and regulatory crackdowns are the main risks. 4. To improve the winning rate, you need to invest in a regular investment leader, dynamically adjust your strategies and be wary of the "faith trap".

Mainstream currency exchanges in 2025:

Ouyi OKX:

Binance Binance:

Huobi:

Gateio Sesame Opening:

bitget:

Can you make money by holding altcoins (HODL) for a long time? Data reveals the truth

Whether a long-term holding (HODL) altcoins are profitable depends on project quality, market cycle and token economic model. Historical data shows that a few altcoins can outperform Bitcoin, but most of them will go to zero or underperform the market. The following are the key analysis:

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1. Probability of long-term altcoins

1. Statistics: 90% of altcoins perform poorly for a long time

• ICO bubble in 2017: Among the top 100 altcoins, only 8 still maintain the top 100 market value in 2023 (such as BNB and LINK).

• Bull market in 2021: Most DeFi/NFT tokens (such as SUSHI, GMT) fell by more than 90% from their peak.

• Zero rate: CoinMarketCap data shows that more than 95% of altcoins disappear or are close to zero within 5 years.

Typical cases:

• Winners: ETH (up more than 10,000 times since 2015), BNB (up more than 500 times since 2017).

• Losers: BitConnect (scam zeroing for fraud), Terra LUNA (algorithm crash), most ICO tokens.

2. Survivorship Bias

People only remember successful altcoins (such as DOGE, SHIB), but ignore thousands of failed projects.

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2. Which altcoins may make long-term profits?

1. Projects with "anti-cycle" capabilities

✅ Lower public chains: ETH, SOL, AVAX (Ecological sustained development).
✅ Infrastructure: LINK (oracle faucet), MATIC (Layer 2).
✅ Cash flow protocol: MakerDAO (DAI stablecoin income), Lido (ETH staking).

2. Key screening criteria

• Market value ranking: Priority is given to the top 50 to avoid small-cap "Dogcoin".

• Actual income: Does the agreement incur handling fees or token repurchase? (If UNI has no income, AAVE has loan spreads).

• Team and Community: Are developers constantly updated? How active is GitHub?

Counterexample:

• Pure Memecoin (such as DOGE, SHIB): No practical use, rely on hype.

• VC high-controlled tokens: Early investors sell after unlocking (such as APT, SUI).

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3. The risk of long-term holding

1. Token Economics collapsed

• Inflation model: A large number of tokens release dilution value (such as XRP issuing 1 billion more coins per year).

• No practical use: Most DeFi tokens only have governance functions (such as CRV).

2. Technology elimination

• Case: EOS was once called the "Ethereum Killer" and has been replaced by Solana and others.

3. Regulatory crackdown

• SEC lawsuit: XRP, SOL, etc. were accused of being securities, resulting in a halving of the price.

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4. How to improve the winning rate of HODL?

1. Regularly invest in the leader rather than betting on small coins

• Robust combination: 70% BTC/ETH 30% altcoins (such as SOL, LINK).

• Avoid All in: No altcoin holdings exceed 10% of the total funds.

2. Dynamic adjustment strategy

• Bull market stop profit: When the altcoin/BTC exchange rate hits a record high, sell it in batches.

• Bear market bottom-buy: After the market value shrinks by 80%, fixed investment (such as SOL rebounds after falling to $8 in 2023).

3. Beware of the "faith trap"

• Don’t fall in love with tokens: Even if you are optimistic about projects, you need to regularly evaluate fundamentals.

• Case: LUNA holders ignore the risk of algorithms due to "belief" and eventually return to zero.

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5. Conclusion: Long-term holding can make money, but the conditions are harsh

• Cases that can make money: a very small number of projects such as ETH and BNB.

• Most endings: zeroing, underperforming BTC, and being forgotten by the market.

• Key Suggestions:

  • Invest in only altcoins with actual needs (such as public chains, infrastructure).

  • Check positions regularly to avoid falling into "zombie projects".

  • The bull market is monetized and the bear market accumulates, and the cycle is more important than HODL.

Final answer:
Long-term holding of altcoins may make money, but the probability is less than 10%. Ordinary people also recommend regular investment in BTC/ETH, or strictly screen 3-5 high-quality altcoin portfolio investments.

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