Altcoin trading strategy: short-term speculation vs long-term investment?

Short-term speculation is suitable for traders with time and pressure resistance, while long-term investment is suitable for holders who believe in the long-term development of the industry. 1. Short-term is suitable for the early stage of a bull market and major events. The core strategies are trend tracking and news arbitrage, and strict stop loss is required. 2. It is suitable for the bottom and disruptive technology in the bear market in the long term. The coin selection criteria are excellent fundamentals and reasonable token economy, and fixed investment and dynamic stop-profit are required.

Mainstream currency exchanges in 2025:

Ouyi OKX:

Binance Binance:

Huobi:

Gateio Sesame Opening:

bitget:

Altcoin trading strategy: short-term speculation vs long-term investment? Comprehensive comparison and practical guide

The high volatility of Altcoin makes it a game field for short-term traders and long-term investors. Which strategy is more appropriate to choose? We have made in-depth comparisons from four dimensions: profit potential, risk, applicable population, and operation skills, and gave practical suggestions for 2024.

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1. Core difference comparison table

Dimension	Short-term speculation	Long-term investment (HODL)
Position time	How many minutes to how many weeks	6 months to several years
Target profit	10%~100% single transaction	5 times ~ 100 times long-term growth
Risk level	Extremely high (winning position, takeover risk)	High (return to zero, project failure risk)
Technical requirements	Need to be proficient in K-line, on-chain data, and message surfaces	Basics and track trends need to be studied
Suitable for the crowd	Traders who have time to watch the market and resist stress	Have no time to watch the market and trust the holders of the industry
Psychological Challenge	FOMO (afraid of missing out), frequent stop loss	Patience to endure 80% retracement

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2. Applicable scenarios and techniques for short-term speculation

1. Suitable for short-term

• In the early stage of the bull market: the market heat is rising, and the altcoin rotation soars (such as the SOL Ecocoin in Q4 2023).

• Major Event Driven:

  • Exchanges list coins (such as Coinbase usually soars for a short time after announcing a certain token listing).

  • Project cooperation/upgrade (such as 70% of MATIC in a single day after Polygon and Disney cooperate).

2. Core strategy

• Trend tracking:

  • Break through key resistance levels and buy (such as above the daily EMA20).

  • Follow up when the volume rises, and stop profit when the volume shrinks.

• News arbitrage:

  • Ambush the low-market value good coins in advance (using Twitter/Discord to monitor project dynamics).

  • Sell ​​within 5 minutes after the positive news is announced (such as the news of "Coinbase" is often accompanied by selling).

Case:

• January 2024 JUP (Jupiter):

  • Before airdrop hype $0.8\text{，上线后暴跌至}$0.8, plunged to 0.4 after going online (short-term traders took profits).

3. Risk control

• Strict stop loss: The single loss does not exceed 5% of the principal.

• Avoid leverage: The altcoin itself fluctuates greatly, and 3 times the leverage may also explode.

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3. Logic and selection criteria for long-term investment

1. Suitable for long-term situations

• Bear market bottom: market value is seriously underestimated (such as SOL falling to $8\text{，}2023\text{年反弹至}$8. Rebound to 200 in 2023).

• Disruptive technology:

  • Public chain upgrades (such as Ethereum EIP-4844 reduces Layer2 fees).

  • Leaders of the new track (such as UNI and AAVE of DeFi Summer in 2020).

2. Coin selection criteria

• Strong fundamentals:

  • The top 50 market capitalization is not Memecoin (such as ETH, AVAX, LINK).

  • Agreement revenue growth (such as MakerDAO's annual revenue exceeded $100 million).

• Token economically reasonable:

  • The team's unlocking cycle is long (such as APT's VC lock-in until 2025).

  • Deflation model (such as BNB destruction quarterly).

Case:

• RNDR (2017-2024):

  • The demand for AI computing power has exploded, and long-term holders make more than 100 times profit.

3. Position management

• Fixed investment strategy: Buy with a fixed amount per month to smooth the cost.

• Dynamic take profit:

  • Cut positions by 50% when the altcoin/BTC exchange rate hits an all-time high.

  • Clearance when the position falls below the 200-day moving average (such as the LUNA collapse signal in 2022).

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4. Strategy Suggestions for 2024

1. Current market cycle positioning

• After Bitcoin Half (April 2024): History shows that it has entered the main bull market uptrend 12-18 months after the halving.

• Policy selection:

  • First half of 2024: Short-term game altcoin rotation (such as AI, RWA, Memecoin).

  • The peak of the bull market in 2025: Long-term investors gradually take profit and change positions to BTC/stablecoin.

2. Mixed strategy (balances risk and benefits)

• 70% long term 30% short term:

  • Long-term warehouse: leaders such as ETH, SOL, and LINK.

  • Short-term positions: low-market hot coins (such as DePIN and AI sectors).

• Profit reinvestment: The short-term profit part is transferred to a long-term position.

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5. Summary: Which strategy should you choose?

• If you choose a short term:

  • I can spend 2 hours a day to analyze the market.

  • Can withstand more than 20% of fluctuations in a single day.

  • Sensitive to the news and strong execution ability.

• Choose the long line if you:

  • I believe in the long-term development of the blockchain industry.

  • Have no time to keep an eye on the market and avoid emotional operations.

  • Willing to wait for 3-5 years to get excess returns.

Ultimate advice:
Novice will give priority to long-term investment in leading coins (such as ETH and SOL), and try short-term trading after proficiency. Don’t be greedy in a bull market and don’t be afraid in a bear market. The cycle is the eternal kingdom.

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