Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical moment again

As the top cryptocurrencies hover around $110,000, market participants have divided their opinions: Is this the beginning of a Bitcoin breakthrough, or is it a potential bearish warning sign?

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again at a crossroads, with top cryptocurrencies testing around $110,000.

Although institutional participants dominate the recent trend of Bitcoin, retail interest remains eye-catching. Technical indicators show that Bitcoin is in a range-to-range fluctuation, and bullish sentiment from long-term holders is intertwined with short-term bearish pressure.

Here is a detailed analysis of Bitcoin’s current situation – what might happen next.

Is Bitcoin about to break through? $110,000 test is imminent

Experts believe that the $110,000 resistance level is the next important challenge facing Bitcoin. A successful breakthrough of this level could trigger a significant uptrend, with some bulls likely reaching $120,000 or even higher.

Several bullish factors support this view:

According to FXLEADERS, Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase is accumulating the power of breakthrough. Bitcoin stayed around $110,000 for a long time, with no significant pullback, increasing the possibility of a breakthrough.

The longer the price stays at this level, the greater the pressure to break through. Once a breakthrough occurs, it may be fast and decisive, whether up or down. The key is direction – is Bitcoin going to break above $110,000 to open a new high, or eventually succumb to bearish pressure, testing the lower support area around $100,000 to $102,500? The answer may depend on several key factors. First, there are a large number of sellers appearing in Wave 5 (C), but it seems that it is mainly short-term traders who have taken profits. This is evident in technical indicators for shorter time frames, showing signs of differences. For example, although the price is still in the bullish channel, the 12-hour RSI has been overbought. This suggests that seller activity has increased, but is not enough to reverse the long-term bullish trend. However, if the price falls further and falls below support, this can be a strong bearish signal because it means the seller has an advantage.

Short-term bearish pressure remains

Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, the short-term technical charts show a more cautious picture.

If Bitcoin fails to quickly break through $110,000, it may fall back to the support range of $100,000 to $102,500, according to analysts at TradingView. Recent bearish pressures are mainly due to short-term traders’ profit settlements and the lack of new retail inflows.

If the seller can lower the price below the support level, this could result in a Fibonacci retracement of $97,000 at a 38.2% target price of $97,000, or a 50% retracement level of $91,000.

If we see a decisive breakthrough for $110,000, the trend may reverse as this may attract more new buyers and drive prices up.

Where are retail BTC investors?

One of the most puzzling phenomena in Bitcoin’s current rally is the lack of retail participation. Despite BTC approaching record highs, Google's Bitcoin search volume remained stable, in stark contrast to the craze during the 2021 bull market. This phenomenon shows that the current Bitcoin rally is more driven by institutions, lacking retail investors who usually accompany major bull markets. While this may herald a more robust growth trend, it has also raised questions about the sustainability of Bitcoin’s momentum, especially without broader market participation.

Next, we need to pay attention to American investors

For investors who are following Bitcoin, here are the key levels and events that need to be paid close attention to:

Will Bitcoin break through or correct?

The current stalemate between institutional buyers and cautious retail investors is creating high risk for Bitcoin. If it can successfully break through the $110,000 resistance level, it may ignite the next bull market; on the contrary, if it fails to break through the resistance, it may lead to a pullback.

At present, Bitcoin is still in a tug-of-war - but as volatility intensifies, breakthroughs seem inevitable.

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