Binance Alpha is launched, HAEDAL airdrop value analysis

HAEADL is the token of Sui's ecological liquidity staking protocol Haedal, and has been confirmed to be launched on Binance Alpha and Bybit spot. Haedal announced in January that it had completed a seed round, with the specific amount not disclosed. Investors participating in this round include Hashed, Comma 3 Ventures, OKX Ventures, Animoca Ventures, Sui Foundation, Flow Traders, Dewhales Capital, Cetus, Scallop, etc.

In addition, Haedal has opened the airdrop query interface and will start to apply for tokens today (April 29) at 20:00.

What is the reasonable price of HAEDAL this time?

First, let’s look at token economics: the total amount of HAEDAL is 1 billion, and the initial circulation accounts for 19.5% of the total supply. The total amount of ecosystem incentive distribution is 55%, liquidity funds account for 10%, investors account for 15%, and teams and consultants account for 20%.

Pre-market market price

Then look at the pre-market market prices. Currently HAEDAL quotes US$0.3 million on Whales.market, and PinataBot quotes US$0.1275 million on Sui, corresponding to a full circulating market value of US$300 million and US$127.5 million respectively.

The author believes that the price on Whales.market is not reliable. In the quotation order book, the price of 0.3 USDC is the seller's order, while the buyer has few orders, and the maximum quotation of 0.15 USDC is only a margin of 300 USDC.

Observe historical transactions at high prices on Whales.market and you will find that the total transaction volume is less than $1,000. Such transaction volume is not enough to be an effective data reference, and it is more likely to be a "high expectation" created by stakeholders at low costs.

Comparison of the same track

Back to rational analysis, what is the fundamentals of Haedal protocol ranking in the Sui ecosystem?

Sui Eco-Protocol TVL Ranking, Data Source: DeFiLlama

Haedal (LST) ranks fourth in TVL, followed by Suilend (Lease AMM LST), NAVI (Lease LST), and Cetus (AMM). It is worth noting that Suilend's only liquid staking part (SpringSui) TVL is also higher than Haedal, so Haedal is the fourth protocol of Sui Ecological TVL and the second protocol of LST Track TVL.

As Suilend, the highest lending agreement and liquid staking LST protocol for Sui EcoTVL, the current FDV (full circulating market value) of token SEND is only about US$72 million. If the HAEDAL is worth more than USD 0.1, either HAEDAL is overvalued or SEND is undervalued.

in conclusion

Combined with HAEDAL's financing background, high premium of the online platform, current high attention, pre-market market performance, and comprehensive analysis of the actual market share of the Haedal agreement and project fundamentals, the author believes that HAEDAL has a low probability of opening above US$0.1, but this will also be the author's selling range. In the short term, HAEDAL will most likely lean towards US$0.05 or even below.

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