Bitcoin (BTC) supply metric is close to 90%, analysts: Target price of $115,000

Key points:

• Bitcoin earnings supply has rebounded to more than 85%, approaching the classic fanatic area.
• On-chain data shows that new buyers and momentum buyers have accumulated strongly, with little profit settlement.
• Bitcoin may launch a rebound to $110,000–115,000 with the help of the “maximum buy” area.

Bitcoin is heading towards a potential new all-time high of $115,000, with a surge in earnings supply indicating a stronger bullish momentum and creating a classic layout for market craze.

Profitable supply is close to 87%

According to data from on-chain data resource CryptoQuant, as of April 28, about 86.9% of Bitcoin was in profitable state.

Historically, the climb to the 85–90% range often marks a shift from healthy optimism to speculative fanaticism.

For example, between October and December 2024, the price of Bitcoin climbed from about $80,000 to more than $100,000, a rebound that coincided with the rise of Bitcoin’s profit supply from below 80% to as high as 99%.

Bitcoin profit supply percentage. Source: CryptoQuant

In an April 28 post, CryptoQuant analyst Dark Frost reminded that the enthusiastic phase of Bitcoin may not last longer and may result in a drastic pullback as holders begin to realize their gains.

Bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $110,000 in January, with its profit supply reaching 99%. But the cryptocurrency then fell by more than 30%. Data shows that similar profit-taking behavior has also led to price corrections in the past.

“Currently, earnings supply has rebounded to more than 85%, which is quite positive,” DarkFrost said, noting that its performance from its recent 75% bottom recovery was better than the 45-50% low observed during the bear market correction.

In addition, Bitcoin’s profit supply is still below 90%. Historically, traders usually take profit-taking behaviors when they exceed 90%, indicating that Bitcoin prices still have room for growth in the next few days.

DarkFrost points out:

“Of course, some levels are more 'comfortable' than others, but usually, an increase in profitable supply tends to drive the bullish phase.”

According to Glassnode's metric tracking, first-time buyers and momentum buyers of Bitcoin are actively accumulating, while profit-taking holders remain relatively silent.

The relative strength index of cumulative supply of various groups of Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode.

This means new demand is pouring in without a massive sell-off, a key factor in keeping the rebound strong.

Bitcoin 'maximum buy' area points to $115,000

At the end of April, Bitcoin rebounded strongly from the support zone of $89,000–90,000, a key level in previous price action, further enhancing the possibility of a rise.

According to chart analyst CryptoCaesarTA, the region now acts as a “maximum buy” area, with buyers actively stepping in to limit Bitcoin’s retracement.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView/CryptoCaesarTA

Below this, the $70,000–72,000 region has not been tested, closely aligning with the long-term uptrend line. If Bitcoin faces a deeper pullback, the region could become a key secondary support.

Currently, Bitcoin’s resilience above $90,000 has kept bullish sentiment strong.

A psychological barrier that breaks through $100,000 could pave the way for a new all-time high of $110,000–115,000, CryptoCaesarTA noted. This upward target is consistent with previous resistance highs and the so-called "weak high" area on the weekly chart.

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