Plunge by 70%! Binance's new favorite SXT was swept across the Internet, revealing the data betting of top institutions

On May 8, 2025, Binance Launchpool's 48th phase project Space and Time (SXT) will be open for trading soon. This "Web3 data layer leader" bet by top capitals such as Microsoft, Chainlink, and Framework Ventures was in huge controversy on the eve of the token launch: the initial price of the token was $0.17, a 70% drop from the pre-market OTC trading peak ($0.56) in Gate.io, and the sound of "short SXT" in the community continued to rise.

Is it the market wrongly killing, or is it the value return? This article will deeply disassemble the difficulties and opportunities of SXT from three dimensions: technical logic, economic model, and market game.

​​Plump 70%! Binance's new favorite SXT was swept across the Internet, revealing the data betting of top institutions

​​1. Technical narrative: The "zero knowledge revolution" of the Web3 data layer

​​1.1 "Achilles' Heel" of Blockchain Data​​

Since the birth of Bitcoin, blockchain technology has always faced a core contradiction: a fault between the inefficiency of on-chain data and the high complexity of application requirements.

• ​​​The data on the chain is difficult to use: the original blockchain data is stored in key-value pairs, and the lack of structure (such as Ethereum's MPT tree), which causes developers to spend a lot of effort to parse;
• Off-chain data is not trustworthy: smart contracts cannot directly call off-chain data, rely on oracles, but there is a risk of centralization;
• Cross-chain data islands: data fragmentation in multi-chain ecosystems is difficult to aggregate and analyze.

Space and Time (SXT) solution is to build a verifiable data layer based on zero-knowledge proof (ZKP), and its core technological breakthroughs are:

​​1.2 Proof of SQL: Use mathematics to seal data authenticity

The core innovation of SXT is Proof of SQL—a protocol that transforms the SQL query process into zero-knowledge proof.

• ​​​How it works: When a user submits an SQL query (such as "stating the liquidation amount of a DeFi protocol in the past week"), the SXT network will generate a ZK proof to verify that the query is indeed executed on a complete, untampered dataset and the result is correct;
• Performance breakthrough: Through the self-developed GPU acceleration framework Blitzar, SXT will compress the generation time to sub-second level, which is 90% more efficient than traditional ZK solutions;
• Application scenarios: Provide real-time off-chain data for DeFi (such as price oracles), provide verifiable training sets for AI models, and provide transparent audit paths for regulators.

​​1.3 Data fabric architecture: Web3 practice of HTAP

SXT adopts a hybrid transaction/analysis processing (HTAP) architecture to achieve "one library and two-purpose":

• Transaction layer: handles high concurrent writes (such as real-time synchronization of on-chain transaction data);
• Analytics layer: supports complex SQL queries and machine learning modeling;
• Decentralized verification layer: Verify data integrity by the node network to avoid single point of failure.

This design allows it to serve both high-frequency trading applications (such as DEX) and data-intensive scenarios (such as on-chain BI tools), filling a critical gap in the Web3 data infrastructure.

​​2. Token economy: The game dilemma under the high inflation model

​​2.1 Token allocation: Community halo and potential risk of selling pressure​​

The total number of SXT tokens is 5 billion. The distribution strategy seems to be "community-friendly", but it actually hides risks:

• ​​​Community accounts for 51.7%: of which 1.4 billion were used for pledge rewards, 1.18 billion were used for ecological incentives, but 375 million were unlocked on the day of TGE;
• ​​​Investors account for 25.9%: Seed round (cost about US$0.02), and A round (cost about US$0.12) tokens begin to be released linearly after 12 months;
• The team accounts for 22.4%: the 4-year unlocking period, but the consultant part has the possibility of early cash out.

Key contradiction: The initial circulation volume is only 1.4 billion (accounting for 28%), but the actual circulation in the first year will increase to about 2 billion due to unlocking, and the market needs to digest more than 40% of the incremental supply.

​​2.2 Economic Model: Pledge Paradox and Value Capture Problems

SXT designed triple token utility, but both faced challenges:

• ​​​Staking security: Verifiers need to pledge SXT to maintain the network, but the current APY (about 15%) is not enough to attract long-term lockouts, which may lead to a cycle of "mining, withdrawing and selling";
• Agreement payment: The query fee is denominated in SXT, but corporate users prefer stablecoin settlement, and the demand side supports are weak;
• Data incentives: Data providers earn SXT, but high-quality data sets on the chain are still scarce, and positive ecological feedback has not yet been formed.

​​2.3 Short selling logic: valuation bubble and market sentiment reversal

The current market value of SXT ($0.17 x 1.4 billion) is approximately US$238 million, and the FDV (full diluted valuation) is US$850 million, far exceeding similar projects (such as The Graph FDV $420 million). The basis for short selling includes:

• ​​Technical implementation lags: Proof of SQL has not been commercialized on a large scale, and the main network is still in its early stages;
• Institutional selling pressure expects: Series A investors (cost 0.12 US dollars) have only 41% floating profit, and may take profit after unlocking;
• Market heat faded: Chainlink airdrop (1 billion SXT) has ended in the short-term boost, and Binance has "all the good news" after it went online.

​​3. Capital Game: Top Institutions’ Gambling and Ways to Retreat​​

​​3.1 Financing context: The Triangle Alliance of Microsoft, Binance, and Chainlink

SXT has raised a total of US$50 million in financing, behind which is the integration of resources between the Web2 giant and the Web3 leader:

• ​​Microsoft M12​: Strategic investment of US$20 million to connect SXT to Azure cloud services, targeting enterprise data on-chain needs;
• Binance Labs: Provide liquidity through Launchpool and OTC channels, but there is a risk of "supporting" in the short term;
• Chainlink: Airdrop 1 billion SXTs bind the community to strengthen the ecological collaboration of data oracle.

​​3.2 Institutional holding cost calculation

• Seed Round (2022): The valuation is about US$50 million, and the cost is US$0.01 per coin;
• Round A (2024): Valuation is US$330 million, cost is US$0.12 per coin.
• Current situation: Early investors have 17 times of floating profits (seed round) and 41% (round A round), and there is a strong motivation to take profits.

​​4. Market Outlook: Short-term Short-Selling Opportunities and Long-Term Value Observations​​

​​4.1 Technical moat and ecological bottlenecks​​

The long-term value of SXT depends on:

• Proof of SQL’s commercial use progress: Can it be implemented in DeFi, RWA and other scenarios (such as dynamic collateral valuation, cross-chain liquidity monitoring);
• ​​Decentralization degree: Currently, verification nodes are concentrated in institutions, so we need to be wary of the criticism of "pseudo-decentralization";
• Competitive products threats: Graph, Covalent, etc. have occupied some market share, and SXT needs to prove its differentiated advantages.

​​4.2 Price trend deduction

• ​​Short term (1-3 months)​​: Unlocking pressure (about 150 million pieces per month) and market sentiment decline may drive prices to fall into the range of US$0.08-0.12;
• ​​Medium term (6-12 months)​​: The announcement of cooperation with enterprises online on the main network may trigger a rebound, but it needs to break through the psychological threshold of US$1 billion for FDV;
• ​​​Long-term: If the HTAP architecture is widely adopted by AI blockchain applications, SXT may grow into a standard protocol for Web3 data layer.

​​4.3 Investment advice

• Short strategy: Combined with options hedging, establish a short position at $0.15-0.17, with a target position of $0.10 and a stop loss of $0.20;
• ​​​Big observation indicators: on-chain pledge rate (>30%), query income (>1 million US dollars/month), institutional lock-up statement;
• Risk warning: Microsoft's ecological traffic diversion exceeds expectations, and ZK technology breakthroughs shorten the commercial cycle.

​​5. Conclusion: Between bubbles and faith

Space and Time (SXT) outlines an attractive vision: use zero knowledge to prove the authenticity of sealed data, allowing AI and blockchain to dance on top of verifiable truths. However, the current market is more like an emotional game between capital and community - technological ideals require time to settle, but the high inflation of the token economy and the short-term profit-seeking nature of institutions are pushing SXT to the brink of bubble formation.

For investors, this is a "dance on the tip of a knife": either being overwhelmed by selling pressure before the technology is realized, or missing chips on the eve of the ecological outbreak. The only thing that is certain is that the data revolution in Web3 will not stop, and SXT is destined to be a footnote in this Long March that cannot be ignored.

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