Crypto Bull Run Back?

The final week of April delivered a jolt of optimism to a crypto market that has spent most of the year wrestling with macro cross-currents.

The final week of April delivered a jolt of optimism to a crypto market that has spent most of the year wrestling with macro cross-currents.

Bitcoin’s resilience above the psychological $90,000–$95,000 level, an unexpected surge in stablecoin issuance and a swarm of textbook bullish patterns across large-caps and meme names have converged to create what veteran chartist Josh Olszewicz calls “one of the cleanest multi-asset breakout tapes we’ve seen since late 2023.”

Olszewicz’s argument begins and ends with liquidity. Two consecutive one-billion-dollar Tether mints on 29 April pushed combined USDT USDC supply to a fresh all-time high, an event he frames as an unequivocal tailwind for speculative assets.

“Tether’s been printing, printing, and minting, baby,” Olszewicz said, emphasising that the dual $1 billion tranches arrived alongside a clear premium in the USDT/USD pair on Kraken—evidence, in his view, of real demand rather than opportunistic treasury rebalancing. “Typically that means people are deploying it in alts. That’s why stable-coin mints—specifically Tether—[are] generally bullish for alts because people are using it to speculate.”

The liquidity pulse arrives just as several macro obstacles appear to be receding. Bitcoin survived a negative-print US GDP release, sticky PCE inflation data and what Olszewicz called “some jobs numbers that came out this week,” without surrendering its three-month up-trend. Meanwhile gold has rolled over and the Dollar Index remains pinned near cycle lows, recreating the “everything-rally” backdrop that powered crypto’s late-2023 melt-up.

Funding markets, however, are delivering a curious split: “We still have negative funding on the BTC side on crypto exchanges. We have positive funding in legacy land with futures. So that’s very bizarre right now, but so far so good.”

Against that backdrop, Olszewicz drills into the Ichimoku-cloud mechanics that underpin his altcoin watch-list. The premise is as old as the indicator itself: a daily candle close inside the cloud accompanied by a bullish Tenkan-Kijun (TK) cross triggers a mean-reversion target to the opposing edge of the cloud.

“All these trades are always the same. I never treat them differently,” he said. “You get a better entry… it’s just a game of probabilities.” The strategy sets clear invalidations—either the Kijun line or a lower-low—and provides what he characterises as Dow-theory mean-reversion framed through an Ichimoku lens.

That formula is now flashing across a surprising breadth of assets.

Solana sits at the top of his list. The layer-one token has posted six consecutive red daily candles, sculpting the “right shoulder” of an inverted head-and-shoulders whose neckline rises toward $200.

“What I’ve got to laser focus on is this potential edge-to-edge move,” Olszewicz explained, noting that ideal entries would materialise between $140 and $120 but are not essential. “Within the next week or two, you should get a great signal on an entry here on SOL just from the cloud.”

Curve, by contrast, is already in motion—up double-digits on a day when most altcoins bled. “Why is it up 10 percent today and everything else is down? I don’t have a good answer for that,” he admitted. Yet the technical structure leaves little to interpret: a multi-month flat-bottom accumulation, a candle close inside the cloud near its lower boundary and a bullish TK cross.

“You’re on your journey to somewhere up here—the other edge of the cloud,” he said, implying a measured-move objective near $1.20 that would represent a near-doubling from current levels.

Where Solana and Curve show imminent triggers, Ethereum remains the quintessential laggard, still chiselling out what Olszewicz labels a bottoming process.

“It’s going to take ETH kicking and screaming to get started here […] but this is a bottom in process. Certainly may take you into June.” The calculus is familiar: traders intent on rotation may find better risk-adjusted returns elsewhere, returning to ETH only once its own daily cloud admits a candle close.

Litecoin exhibits a similar dynamic, with an inverted head-and-shoulders outline that “feels a little early,” perhaps ripening by early June.

Fetch.ai breached the cloud on April 23 and already sports a bullish TK cross, yet Olszewicz acknowledges it arrives “after two or three weeks of up-move,” reducing risk-reward.

Chainlink shows a textbook right-shoulder still under

News data source: kdj.com

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