Bitcoin (BTC) market capitalization witnesses a huge surge in volatility

The cryptocurrency market plunged on Monday, and the sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin prices confirmed its long-term price resilience. The global market downturn and ongoing trade frictions have exacerbated market uncertainty.

However, the latest on-chain data shows that a considerable portion of Bitcoin is already in a loss-making state, which may imply a potential price support level.

On-chain data shows that more than 5.1 million Bitcoins are in a loss-making state - the echo of the market in 2024

On April 7, the price of Bitcoin suffered a sharp sell-off, falling to a five-month low of $74,345. Countries such as China and the EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, further exacerbating bearish sentiment.

In this sluggish market, about 5,124,348 bitcoins (accounting for 25.8% of the circulating supply) were in an unrealized loss. According to implicit analysis, Bitcoin investors also experienced a similar situation in 2024, when a considerable part of the supply was in a loss state.

On January 22, about 24.1% of the supply (or 4.72 million Bitcoins) was in a loss; on July 6 it was 22.4% (5.13 million Bitcoins); on August 5, it rose to 27.5% (5.43 million Bitcoins); on September 6, it peaked, with a loss-making supply reaching 29.9% (5.9 million Bitcoins).

It is worth noting that these lows coincide with the market cooling and accumulation stages, rather than a persistent bearish downturn. If history repeats itself, Bitcoin prices may seek support near the sustained trading range before bullish reversal.

Bitcoin price target is $100,000, and the channel pattern is being formed

Despite the intraday sell-off, Bitcoin price showed significant elasticity, rebounding to $79,800. About 70 countries negotiated a new trade agreement with the United States, which to some extent eased market sentiment and prompted a buying influx.

If the bullish reversal continues, Bitcoin price may rise 4.6%, challenging the resistance level of the downward wedge pattern. Since January 2025, the two downtrend lines of the pattern have formed a dynamic resistance level, providing key support for investors.

As a result, a potential breakthrough will mark a shift in market dynamics and may drive prices to accelerate to $100,000.

On the contrary, if the bears continue to hold the upper trend line, the Bitcoin price will continue its current downward trend.

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