Bitcoin's 30-day correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100 hits a new high in two years

Cryptocurrency investment is greatly affected by the macroeconomic environment, and key indicators such as inflation rate (CPI), interest rate policy and money supply will have a profound impact on the crypto market.

Bitcoin is highly positively correlated with US technology stocks

Recently, the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets has been significantly enhanced. Bloomberg reports that the 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 has climbed to about 0.7, a two-year high, indicating that the two trends are highly positively correlated. This implies that the boundaries between the crypto market and the traditional financial market are increasingly blurred, and Bitcoin’s attributes as a risky asset are more prominent.

(The correlation coefficient is between -1 and 1, and the closer the value is to 1, the more consistent the direction of the two changes. The financial field usually regards correlation coefficients above 0.7 as highly positive correlation)

Therefore, investors need to pay close attention to the global economic situation, monetary policy adjustments, and changes in market liquidity.

CPI may rise for five consecutive times, and inflationary pressure remains

The upcoming CPI data will directly affect the trend of Bitcoin, and in turn affect the Fed's rate cut rhythm. Market forecasts show that the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in December is expected to be 2.9%, and the month-on-month growth rate is expected to be 0.4%, which may rise for the fifth consecutive month. Although rental inflation has slowed, new tariff expectations, strong auto sales and rising medical expenses will continue to push up inflationary pressure.

Affected by this, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield soared to nearly 5%, and the US dollar index once hit a high of 110; on the other hand, the stock and cryptocurrency markets were under pressure, and the price of Bitcoin fell by more than $11,000 from its highs, and the US stock market also gave up some of its previous gains.

Trump takes office, policy direction becomes the key

Trump is about to take office, and the policy direction of the new government has attracted much attention. The market is closely watching the potential impact of inflationary tariffs, immigration policies and Trump’s commitment to building the United States into a global cryptocurrency hub. According to the Washington Post, Trump may issue an executive order on the first day of his inauguration to resolve the debanking problem of the cryptocurrency industry and abolish the controversial cryptocurrency accounting standard SAB121.

Derive.xyz platform data show that the option market hedging trading activity has increased significantly, indicating that investors are preparing for potential market volatility. Sean Dawson, research director of the platform, said the rise in put options trading shows investors hedging potential market downside risks during Trump's inauguration.

K33 Research analysts concluded that the recent market sensitivity to interest rates highlights the importance of the upcoming CPI data on Wednesday, and the pace of Trump's policy may also accelerate further a few days before taking office, which will have an important impact on Bitcoin's short-term trend.

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