15 commonly used currency circle escape index technology analysis

In-depth analysis of the top 15 Bitcoin Escape Indicators: Market Outlook for 2025

This article deeply analyzes fifteen commonly used Bitcoin top-escape indicators, among which the Bitcoin Rhodl ratio, USDT current wealth management and altcoin seasonal index have reached the top-escape range in 2024, attracting market attention. How should investors deal with potential risks? Let us interpret these indicators one by one and explore reasonable response strategies.

1. Detailed explanation of key indicators

1. AHR999 Coin Hoarding Indicator: Created by ahr999, assisting Bitcoin fixed investment strategy. The current value is 1.21, which is in the wait-and-see range, so it is recommended to be cautious. Link

2. AHR999 Escape Top Indicator: Supplement to the AHR999 Coin Hoarding Index, used to identify the top of the market. The current value is 2.48 and has not hit the top this cycle. Link

3. Pi cycle top indicator: Predict the market top by comparing the 111-day moving average and the 350-day moving average. Currently, the distance between the two lines is large and there is no top signal. It is expected that the next crossing will be in October 2025. Link

4. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart: Long-term valuation model, divides the price range into nine color bands. The current price is in the green area, the valuation is reasonable, and there is no top signal. Link

5. Bitcoin terminal price indicator: Reflects the true value of the Bitcoin network. The closer the price is to the red line, the closer the market is to the top. It has not reached the top yet. Link

6. Bitcoin market value proportion: Reflects Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market. Currently, it is about 60%, in the relative equilibrium range. Link

7. Bitcoin CBBI Index: Comprehensive index, integrating multiple technical indicators and on-chain data. The current value is 79, and the market is slightly hot, but it has not reached its peak. Link

8. Bitcoin MVRV Z Index:Judge market cycles by comparing market value and realizing value. The current value is 2.5 and has not hit the top yet. Link

9. Bitcoin Rhodl ratio: Composite on-chain indicator, which may indicate that the market is overheated when approaching the red band. It hit its peak in November 2024. Link

10. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple: Evaluate market valuations by comparing current prices to their 200-day moving average. The current value is 1.26, and the market is slightly overbought, but it has not hit the top. Link

11. Number of continuous net outflow days of ETF: Track the flow of Bitcoin ETF funds. Currently, net outflow for one day is a normal fluctuation.

12. The proportion of ETF to BTC: reflects institutional participation. Currently, the proportion is close to 6%, and the institutional participation is good.

13. USDT Current Financial Management: Measure market capital costs. It hit 65% in March 2024 and entered the escape range.

14. Altcoin Seasonal Index: Determine whether the market has entered an active period of altcoin. It hit 88% in December 2024 and entered the escape range.

15. Microstrategy Cost Indicators: Tracks MicroStrategy's average Bitcoin holding cost. Currently higher than the current price and is in the institutional profit range. Link

2. Coping strategies

Although some indicators send out a signal of escaping the top, it does not mean that the market will inevitably hit the top. Investors are advised to adopt the following strategies:

• Batch reduction: Avoid pursuing perfect top and set batch reduction points.
• Cash profits: Convert some profits into stablecoins or fiat currencies to reduce risks.
• Invest in altcoins with caution: Avoid chasing higher risk altcoins.
• Get profit early: I would rather sell early at a high level than late.

III. Conclusion

Market volatility is the norm, and rational analysis and prudent decision-making are crucial. Remember, "A bear market makes you bankrupt, and a bull market makes you fall back into poverty." Only by making full use of various indicators, combining your own risk tolerance and formulating a reasonable investment strategy can you be invincible in the market.

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