The bull market is divided into four phases. Buckle up, we have just entered the most exciting phase. Welcome to Phase Three~
The bull market has four phases.
Strap yourself in, we just entered the most fun phase.
Welcome to Phase Three~
Just to refresh your memory, Phase One is Rebirth
This phase spans from January 2023 to January 2024.
The defining characteristic of the rebirth phase is the bear market fatigue.
Nothing seems interesting anymore because everything sucks.
Your friends and the media are still talking about the bear market crash.
People are still getting laid off.
However, prices are quietly recovering.
Bitcoin has tripled.
But you barely notice because you are still down on most of your investments.
Only veteran crypto traders who have been through two or more cycles realize that the bull market has started.
Most people still don't believe that this is the start of a bull market.
Phase Two is Excitement
This phase started in February 2024 and ended last week.
Some coins are approaching all-time highs. Stories are coming back, but only a handful each quarter.
Everyone in crypto now knows that we are in a bull market.
But for some reason, your friends still haven't texted you.
You are in a weird state of both excitement and anxiety.
People are getting laid off, but hiring has not yet started back up.
The field feels closed off with no one entering or leaving.
Overall, life is good. Your crypto friends are all making gains.
This is the calm before the storm.
Phase Three is Euphoria
We are currently in this phase.
The euphoria phase officially started with the presidential election on November 5.
This is a fun time.
Everyone is making money, but the speculators have not fully entered the market yet.
Enjoy this moment while it lasts because it will be very short-lived.
The assets that you own are about to cross (if they haven't already) all-time highs.
In the past, there would only be a handful of new stories each quarter, but now new stories are coming out every week.
By the end, there will be new stories almost every day.
No one gets tired of these stories------every idea is a "good" idea.
Anyone with followers is a genius and has their own take on the new stories.
Someone will definitely make money on this week's hot coin and I guarantee they will talk about it.
This can be annoying.
(But keep in mind everyone has their own interests and no one will share their losses)
New stories bring new coins.
Coins are going up every day and you won't own most of them.
You might be up 8% for the week, but you will feel annoyed that you missed out on the [hot new coin].
The combination of new coins and new stories creates a "Fear Of Missing Out" (FOMO).
If you're not careful, FOMO can get you into trouble.
Here is some advice:
Understand the pros and cons of your investment strategy.
Day trading? Know that it will affect your work and mental health.
Focusing on building? Know that you might miss out on some big trades.
Everything has pros and cons------know what they are.
Don't try to do everything or you will fail at all of it.
Back to Phase Three.
The private markets are about to get very hot.
It starts with the asset allocators waking up on November 6 and realizing that they are drastically under-invested in crypto.
They begin reaching out to venture capital firms and hedge funds for an allocation.
These firms will announce the launch of large new funds faster than you can count.
Late-stage venture capital has been quiet for over two years. Now it will come roaring back.
The large funds and open IPO market will allow B-D round companies to raise again.
Large financings will become the norm once again.
A-round financings will be done quickly.
This will attract new world-class founders to join.
Hiring is becoming very competitive.
Protocols are offering large token rewards to attract top talent.
If you are a founder, you have 3-6 months (maybe less) to hire the best talent at a reasonable salary.
After that, you will be playing catch-up.
We are mainstream again.
Forbes, Bloomberg, CNBC…… they are all covering crypto with enthusiasm.
Your friends are texting you about Cardano. Your financial advisor is suggesting a 5% allocation to Bitcoin.
Traditional finance is rushing to "tokenize everything."
Then, around mid-2025, some strange things start to happen.
Enter Phase Four: Disconnect
Fortune 500 companies are announcing massive Bitcoin purchases.
Athletes and artists are getting involved------crypto permeates culture.
Venture capital firms are no longer performing due diligence.
Speculators are raising millions
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