Bitcoin (BTC) Halving Cycles See Diminishing Returns, But Could Still Hit $180K This Cycle

While the title of this insight may seem overly bullish, it's simply a fact based on the data. However, historical patterns don't really line up with such a bullish scenario.

Despite the bullish title, the data suggests a more bearish scenario. Each Bitcoin cycle sees a diminishing rate of price increase, with each halving seeing an increase around 27% of the last period.

If Bitcoin continues this trend, we may still have cause for optimism. However, satoshi/dollar parity is unlikely.

The price increase for each halving cycle appears to diminish significantly over time.

Each cycle shows a substantial reduction in the percentage increase.

To forecast a trend, let’s analyze the approximate rate of decrease:

If we continue this diminishing rate, Halving 4 might see an increase of around 26-27% of the previous Halving’s percentage increase:

738 * 0.265 ≈ 195.57%

Estimate for Halving 4: We could estimate an increase of approximately 195% over the halving price. This follows the trend of diminishing returns per cycle.

Such a price increase would take Bitcoin to a peak of around $180,000 this cycle.

For fun, if Bitcoin were to break the diminishing returns pattern and increase by 50% or 100% of the last cycle’s increase, we would see prices of $304,000 and $520,000, respectively.

Should Bitcoin somehow find the vigor of the 2017 bull run, it would rise as high as $1.8 million per coin.

Remember, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Bitcoin is still in its infancy as an asset, and anything could happen next.

Except, in my view, going to zero.

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