Polymarket Reaches All-Time High of $3.6B in Trade Volume During the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

With Donald Trump ultimately securing a second term, Polymarket's "who will win" market became a high-stakes betting ground.

Decentralized prediction market Polymarket reached a new all-time high of $3.6 billion in trade volume for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. With Donald Trump ultimately securing a second term, Polymarket’s “who will win” market became a high-stakes betting ground.

In contrast to traditional polling, which predicted a close race, Polymarket consistently leaned toward Trump, whose odds peaked at a 71.5% chance of winning post-July following an assassination attempt. As a result, crypto enthusiasts and investors looked to Polymarket as a more reliable gauge than conventional polls, which remained volatile throughout the campaign.

Crypto Players Go Big in 2024 Election Predictions

One of Polymarket’s most significant bets came from a high-roller who staked $18 million on Trump’s victory, with a potential $29 million payout. With its flagship market for the 2024 election now resolved, the Poly Shayne Coplan, Polymarket’s CEO, took to Twitter to celebrate the platform’s predictive accuracy, stating, “Trust the markets, not the polls.” According to Coplan, the Trump campaign even learned of its lead from Polymarket’s projections.

I just got word that the Trump campaign HQ literally found out they were winning from Polymarket.

History was made today.

Surreal

— Shayne Coplan (@shayne_coplan) November 6, 2024

What’s Next for Polymarket as Political Markets Wind Down?

With the U.S. election market now closed, Polymarket faces the challenge of maintaining user engagement without a high-stakes event on the horizon. Speculation has risen around the potential launch of a Polymarket token, a move many believe could sustain user interest and drive future revenue.

Having raised $70 million in Series B funding, Polymarket hasn’t yet charged fees for trading, but a token airdrop could incentivize continued platform use. This anticipated token launch might be the next step to solidify Polymarket’s place in the crypto ecosystem, ensuring its relevance even as major political events wind down.

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