Bitcoin's Resilience May Keep Crypto Unaffected by the 2024 US Election

Economic trends, and not political shifts, drive crypto growth and long-term value.

Despite the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election, Bitcoin’s trajectory may remain largely unaffected by the political landscape. Economic trends, rather than shifts in government, are observed to be the primary driving force behind crypto growth and long-term value.

While the next president's stance on crypto might be a topic of interest, especially considering the varying approaches taken by the Trump and Biden administrations, analysis of market data suggests a minimal impact on Bitcoin's overall performance.

According to various data sources and expert opinions, Bitcoin's fundamentals are largely independent of who is in office, despite the cryptocurrency's value fluctuating over time and being briefly affected by elections.

In previous U.S. election years, Bitcoin did experience a slight decrease, although to a much lesser extent compared to stocks. For instance, the cryptocurrency dropped by about 10.3% in 2016 and 6.1% in 2020. This year, however, the crypto has already exhibited a pre-election drop of approximately 6.3%.

Interestingly, as noted by crypto commentator Quinten François, each election week has marked a "price floor" for Bitcoin, never to be revisited. This suggests that Bitcoin tends to stabilize and even build resilience following these political events, setting the stage for future growth.

However, the upcoming election might bring forth new regulatory ideas, especially considering the differing stances taken by the Republican and Democratic parties on crypto regulation. While Bitcoin's trajectory is observed to be more closely tied to broader economic strategies, such as quantitative easing and debt, rather than specific regulations, the election outcome could potentially influence the short-term regulatory environment for crypto.

Despite the minimal impact of U.S. politics on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory, the country's role as a crypto hub and the presence of institutional investors are noted to be key factors driving crypto growth in the region.

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